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Coronavirus

The Autumn Spike?

(197 Posts)
Daisymae Tue 28-Sept-21 13:39:10

Schools resumed a few weeks ago, a lot of people are back in the office. Masks are not required and a lot of people seem to have ditched them. I did think that there would be a big uptick, looking at the forecasts, but this does not seem to have happened. Fingers crossed it stays that way. However a number of people have had negative tests despite having symptoms and being in contact with a positive case. I also read that 53% of PCR are giving a false negative when taken more than 4 days after symptoms first show. Not sure where I'm going with this but with a bit of luck we can be a little bit optimistic? Or is there an issue with the testing?

Ladyleftfieldlover Tue 28-Sept-21 22:51:02

Of course children should have been vaccinated in the summer holidays. Why weren’t they? Who knows. Could have been government dithering as usual.

Astu Wed 29-Sept-21 06:57:57

For weeks UK death rate and hospital numbers have been appalling compared to France, Spain, Italy and Germany.
Also many countries have higher vas percentage of population.
They also have stricter measures.
UK just ignores this and accepts the policy of the government to infect everyone.
Not great if you are trying to protect vulnerable relatives.

Mamie Wed 29-Sept-21 07:43:20

Totally agree MayBee70. Loads of cases in my GD's school and a large number of those in Year 11 (GCSE). My GD has it and is too unwell to continue with school work. Both parents (fully vaccinated) have it, with mild symptoms, but still inevitable disruption to their work.
Here in France vast majority 12-17 year olds vaccinated before start of term, masks worn in school, very few cases. The same in Spain where my other grandchildren are at school.
In my opinion England has got this wrong.

rosie1959 Wed 29-Sept-21 08:20:21

The JCVI were against vacination of children so the government had to go against this recommendation
Now with adult vacinations they followed the recommendations of the JVVI so a decision had to be made

Mamie Wed 29-Sept-21 08:37:20

I thought that the Government overruled the JVCI and asked them to look again because the original advice had not taken sufficient account of disruption to education?

Alegrias1 Wed 29-Sept-21 09:02:38

The government most certainly did not overrule the JCVI.

The JCVI decided that the benefits of vaccinating children 12-15 was marginal, but certainly not dangerous. However they did not recommend a universal vaccination program for this reason. They stated that they were not in a position to comment on the societal benefits of a mass vaccination program and suggested that the governments of all 4 nations in the UK should refer to the CMOs for that decision.

The CMOs decided to recommend a mass vaccination program.

With so much vaccine hesitancy around it is very important that there are no rumours about the government overruling or going against the medical authorities' recommendations.

Mamie Wed 29-Sept-21 09:06:56

I would have thought the original Government briefing to the JCVI should have included a requirement to consider the overall impact on children's education rather than just health issues. If that had been done sooner rather than later it might have minimised disruption. Of course mask wearing and proper ventilation in schools would have helped too. Plenty of other countries had worked this out and got it in place.

MaizieD Wed 29-Sept-21 09:07:10

I understand that anti-bodies built by the body tend to work better than those produced by vaccines

ayse, you are usually a sensible poster, but this is nonsense. The vaccine stimulates the body to produce antibodies. There is no difference between vaccine induced and infection induced antibodies.

There is, a question over how long antibodies persist. Which is why we're getting boosters.

Still horrified at how people airily dismiss Long Covid. It can happen even after seemingly mild infections

I suggest watching the video and reading the comments on this thread.

mobile.twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1442555369427984390

Sarnia Wed 29-Sept-21 09:07:39

So many people are acting as if Covid never existed. Perhaps they have had enough of masks, sanitising and restrictions or have decided to live alongside it as we do with colds and flu. Personally I wear a mask when I need to, sanitise and wash my hands regularly and hope for the best.

Mamie Wed 29-Sept-21 09:09:09

Obviously the Independent got it wrong.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-vaccine-teenagers-rejected-jcvi-b1913850.html

Alegrias1 Wed 29-Sept-21 09:12:29

Mamie

I would have thought the original Government briefing to the JCVI should have included a requirement to consider the overall impact on children's education rather than just health issues. If that had been done sooner rather than later it might have minimised disruption. Of course mask wearing and proper ventilation in schools would have helped too. Plenty of other countries had worked this out and got it in place.

I would have thought the original Government briefing to the JCVI should have included a requirement to consider the overall impact on children's education rather than just health issues.

That is not in the JCVI's remit. Ever.

Alegrias1 Wed 29-Sept-21 09:13:02

Mamie

Obviously the Independent got it wrong.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-vaccine-teenagers-rejected-jcvi-b1913850.html

Yes, yes they did.

ayse Wed 29-Sept-21 09:16:13

MaizieD

^I understand that anti-bodies built by the body tend to work better than those produced by vaccines^

ayse, you are usually a sensible poster, but this is nonsense. The vaccine stimulates the body to produce antibodies. There is no difference between vaccine induced and infection induced antibodies.

There is, a question over how long antibodies persist. Which is why we're getting boosters.

Still horrified at how people airily dismiss Long Covid. It can happen even after seemingly mild infections

I suggest watching the video and reading the comments on this thread.

mobile.twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1442555369427984390

My DH has long Covid so I wouldn’t dream of dismissing it. It’s made his life a misery. The point I’m making is that children and non-Vaccers, if they have Covid have a natural immunity protects the. I can’t remember now where I read that natural immunity was more effective.

I’ll certainly watch the link you posted and I have read this thread. Thank you for the link

growstuff Wed 29-Sept-21 09:16:14

Mamie

I would have thought the original Government briefing to the JCVI should have included a requirement to consider the overall impact on children's education rather than just health issues. If that had been done sooner rather than later it might have minimised disruption. Of course mask wearing and proper ventilation in schools would have helped too. Plenty of other countries had worked this out and got it in place.

That's not the role of the JCVI - and shouldn't be. It only considers medical issues. If it started considering social and political issues, it could be accused of being partisan by being influenced by lobbying.

growstuff Wed 29-Sept-21 09:21:03

ayse I think I also read somewhere that natural immunity is more effective, although I have no idea if it's true or how much research has been done.

However, natural immunity means being infected and we know that infection is more dangerous (even for young people) than vaccination. Infection also means disruption such as having to miss school or work.

So, natural immunity might be more effective, but it's a risky path to take.

Mamie Wed 29-Sept-21 09:21:13

Yes overall I agree growstuff. However, the spin (and opinion on here) has been that the JCVI refused it on health grounds so the vaccinations did not happen.
It sounds like a government policy failure to me.
It was up to the government to consider all factors and make a decision in a timely and measured fashion. As a result three months have been lost and the start of the school year disrupted.

growstuff Wed 29-Sept-21 09:25:48

No, the JCVI didn't refuse it on health grounds. Their statement said that for 10-15 year olds, the risk between being infected and side effects of vaccination were almost equal, with a marginal advantage for being vaccinated - not enough for them to recommend amass vaccination programme.

Apart from some criticisms of their methodology, they didn't take Long Covid into account or the social implications of missing school.

ayse Wed 29-Sept-21 09:28:31

MaizieD,
My DH now has a heart murmur together with insulin injections and shortness of breath

The JVCI did not think there was any substantial benefit to children being vaccinated in this case.

I’m certainly reconsidering whether to have the booster as my DD is concerned about my health.

I wish that masks were mandatory on public transport just now as this is my main means of transport.

Have just found this re immunity that supports your view

www.immunology.org/coronavirus/connect-coronavirus-public-engagement-resources/covid-immunity-natural-infection-vaccine

growstuff Wed 29-Sept-21 09:30:47

I don't know why the JCVI took so long to make up its mind. I think the government would have been foolish to go ahead without waiting for the decision. I suspect there might have been some behind the scenes politics, but I can't prove that. Before the decision was made one member of the JCVI was dismissed/resigned (not sure). He was strongly against vaccinating children and had appeared in a couple of interviews. It could be that it was all connected. I think it all put the CMOs in a difficult position.

Mamie Wed 29-Sept-21 09:33:10

Yes sorry "health grounds" was too narrow a summary on my part.
Still makes it a government failure though!

growstuff Wed 29-Sept-21 09:34:11

ayse If your DH's heart murmur, insulin injections and breathlessness are after effects of Covid, I don't really understand why you wouldn't do everything you can to reduce your own risk of being seriously affected.

Mamie Wed 29-Sept-21 09:36:00

As a former educational professional involved in policy making, it sounds to me as if the voice of of the DfE was not strong enough. Given the performance of the former SoS I am not surprised.

growstuff Wed 29-Sept-21 09:37:56

Mamie

Yes sorry "health grounds" was too narrow a summary on my part.
Still makes it a government failure though!

Not so sure. I'm not usually hesitant about criticising the government grin, but the JCVI is independent (at least nominally) and mustn't be influenced by government. I guess the government should have given them a kick up the backside and told them to hurry up, but (as I wrote before) it included somebody who was very much against vaccinating children. I suspect some pressure might have been applied to get him to leave before a decision was announced.

growstuff Wed 29-Sept-21 09:39:01

Mamie

As a former educational professional involved in policy making, it sounds to me as if the voice of of the DfE was not strong enough. Given the performance of the former SoS I am not surprised.

It wasn't the DfE's decision. It was the decision of the various CMOs of the NHSs.

ayse Wed 29-Sept-21 09:50:47

growstuff

ayse I think I also read somewhere that natural immunity is more effective, although I have no idea if it's true or how much research has been done.

However, natural immunity means being infected and we know that infection is more dangerous (even for young people) than vaccination. Infection also means disruption such as having to miss school or work.

So, natural immunity might be more effective, but it's a risky path to take.

See the link I posted to above. It seems that vaccine may be more effective, according to this paper.

I still have doubts about giving this vaccine to under 15s as there are no long term studies, nor can there be atm.

I’m not sure about the article below but it does provide a link to an FDA document regarding the results of testing 12-15 year olds and adverse reactions. If there’s a statistician here perhaps they could throw some light on this?

rightsfreedoms.wordpress.com/2021/06/02/86-of-children-suffered-an-adverse-reaction-to-the-pfizer-covid-vaccine-in-clinical-trial/