COVID cases on the brink of breaking 100k a day (Zoe Covid Study)

Thank you Alegrias.

So I made a completely open statement to which anyone could have replied and explained that what I was hearing was not what they meant. How is that scaremongering?

May I just ask what outcome you hoped for from your post of Sat 30-Oct-21 10:43:05?

Thank you for your posts Alegrias1 reasoned and knowledgeable as always ?

PippaZ

I have been through all the pages and cannot see where anyone says learning to live with it - does that mean learning to die of it Alegrais.

I appreciate you said you were paraphrasing. However, you know as well as I do you do not misquote in this way when you are using it as evidence to support an accusation.

Perhaps you could quote the actual words used from the posts and not just tell us how you chose to read them.

PippaZ Fri 29-Oct-21 19:36:03

But what do you mean by "learn to live with it". When I read that it comes over as is you are saying we must learn to live as if it's not there, i.e., learn to die with it.

MayBee70

No one is saying that everyone who sneezes should ask for a PCR test. But they should do a lateral flow test so they don’t pass the virus onto other people, some of whom might be at risk of severe illness. However, they won’t because the government, for some reason known only to themselves don’t seem to want to update the current covid symptoms. If my daughter hadn’t’ve been testing her boys so regularly the eldest would have probably gone on to infect others, including his parents and his brother. And, in the process prevented some children at his school from having their vaccine. That one lateral flow test possibly prevented many people from having covid. And yet people seem to mock how careful our family are being and have been since the pandemic began.

I don't know how it is in rUK but in Scotland we're asked to do two LFTs a week irrespective of symptoms. I think rUK is the same. If you have started sneezing, doing an LFT won't be enough to diagnose it if you already have COVID and so you need a PCR.

So people with symptoms need a PCR. The best way of predicting that you have COVID is is you have one or more of the three main symptoms. You might have the others, but they are indicative of so many other conditions that asking anybody who has started sneezing or who has a headache to behave as though they have COVID will paralyse the country.

I have been through all the pages and cannot see where anyone says learning to live with it - does that mean learning to die of it Alegrais.

I appreciate you said you were paraphrasing. However, you know as well as I do you do not misquote in this way when you are using it as evidence to support an accusation.

Perhaps you could quote the actual words used from the posts and not just tell us how you chose to read them.

No one is saying that everyone who sneezes should ask for a PCR test. But they should do a lateral flow test so they don’t pass the virus onto other people, some of whom might be at risk of severe illness. However, they won’t because the government, for some reason known only to themselves don’t seem to want to update the current covid symptoms. If my daughter hadn’t’ve been testing her boys so regularly the eldest would have probably gone on to infect others, including his parents and his brother. And, in the process prevented some children at his school from having their vaccine. That one lateral flow test possibly prevented many people from having covid. And yet people seem to mock how careful our family are being and have been since the pandemic began.

Someone I know that has been posting pictures of going to lots of events that I wouldn’t dream of going to has just said her DH has covid. Probably caught from someone who was sat next to him at a gig who had caught it from (you guessed it) his school age child. This scenario must be playing out all over the country. I would assume he’s double vaccinated. Strangely enough (albeit on a somewhat larger scale) I was watching the IOW Festival on Sky Arts last night and thinking yet another superspreader event. Wonder how many other people at the gig my friend went to have caught it too. Every time, feeling envious of people living seemingly normal lives, I resolve to get out more, something like this happens.

PippaZ

Who is scaremongering Alegrais? Posters are, like you, putting forward what they know and what they think. No one knows everything; we all know some things.

I am not sure how, starting a post with a pejorative comment really helps our understanding.

I paraphrase:

learning to live with it - does that mean learning to die of it

government are downplaying the number of infections

Russian Roulette

India all over again!

Who is scaremongering Alegrais? Posters are, like you, putting forward what they know and what they think. No one knows everything; we all know some things.

I am not sure how, starting a post with a pejorative comment really helps our understanding.

I wasn’t going to post for a while but in the face of such scaremongering and pile ons I’m going to break my own rule. Where shall I start?

Tegnell is clearly not a sensible “expert” to quote on this matter. However, Spiegelhalter this week pointed out that the deaths within 28 days of a test overestimates the number of deaths in which Covid is a significant factor. However it is balanced out by the ONS measure and by the excess deaths measure, as has always been the case through the whole pandemic. So arguing forcibly that people who say that the 28-day measure is an overestimate are covid deniers is not only a complete over-reaction but also wrong. It’s not rot, daft or rubbish, its true.

ONS measures then. Are the government underplaying the amount of infection in this country? Every measure is exactly the same as it has been thought the whole pandemic. Nobody is hiding cases. The number of laboratory confirmed cases is useful for identifying trends. The government are not underplaying the levels of infection.
Deaths and hospitalisations still going up and that’s what’s important? Well they both peak about 3-4 weeks after the number of cases peak, so they’ll probably continue to rise for a couple of weeks yet. Cases are falling because its half term? Probably. Vaccinating 12 – 15 year olds probably comes into it as well.

And much as you might like us to ignore the economic and mental health impacts of the pandemic, we can’t. Pointing them out isn’t denying that there’s a problem, its acknowledging that this is a more complicated situation than many of us think.

Shall we stop testing so much? Germany is planning on stopping free testing. Seems to be working fine over there. I do have some thoughts on what would happen if everyone with the symptom of “sneezing” in October suddenly turned up wanting a PCR test, but it’s pretty obvious to anyone who thinks it through.

And finally. “India all over again”. It might have escaped some people’s notice that COP26 is in Scotland, where we still have face masks and vaccine passports for large events. Where negative tests will be required of the delegates every day. Where 1m social distancing will be in force. There will probably be a spike. We’ll get on with it.

Now please go ahead and accuse me of killing grannies, denying Covid and ignoring the plight of school children. I’m sure you will.

Zoe figures today

Estimated new cases 92400
Estimated active cases 1151000

^I'm sick of hearing about 'damage to the economy and mental health' too - phrases just parroted out to excuse selfish, inconsiderate behaviour.

I couldn't agree more Hetty.

MayBeMaw - Thank you for the sanity of your comment.

Hetty58

Statistics are misleading anyway. Take a look at 'Virus tests conducted' and you'll see that the rate of testing has reduced recently - so the figures may adjust/change accordingly later on:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

If fewer tests are being conducted the statitics will work with that. It is difficult to see what you are suggesting. Perhaps you could explain. What effect do you think fewer tests would have?

MayBee70

Dr Johns latest blog agrees with the ZoeApp stats and the ONS one. He can’t understand why the government one seems to underplay the amount of infection in the country. Hmm. Maybe they don’t want to hit the magic figure of 100,000 and have to bring in Plan B before COP26. Surely not.

I think that hits the spot MayBee.

Urmstongran

^They have Covid but they are not dying of Covid.
They are mainly dying of an underlying condition that they have, up to the Covid, survived. (Unless you think there is absolutely no cause for their death)^

Unless of course their longstanding underlying condition has worsened anyway. It happens. With or without Covid as a factor, sadly.

If you are suggesting that they simply have an underlying condition and it got worse but they had not tested positive for Covid that would be irrelevant to the statistics, Urmstongran. They would not be counted. They will only be counted if they have tested positive for Covid in the previous 28 days.

If you are suggesting that they have Covid but survive the Covid only to die when the Covid virulency has decreased this is why we have the 28-day cut-off. After that date, it is less likely to be the Covid. This is the way statisticians define Covid deaths for surveillance purposes. It is not meant to be exact to the extent of being exact for each and every person. We do not need it to be accurate in every single case. As that would require a clinical assessment of each case. it would take too long and we need the statistics now. In the science of statistics it just needs to be a proven and agreed accurate way of assessing what the Covid virus is doing. We need to see trends, not exact numbers.

The only clear case of someone dying with Covid within 28 days not having a death attributed to the patient having Covid is if the death cannot be related to COVID-19 disease - so trauma would/could be such a case. How many of those do you think they are.? Would you really say they are statistically significant?

If people stopped trying to make statistics say what they want them to say but worked out exactly what they are saying they could stop worrying quite so much about the statistics and get on with learning what we have to do while the virus is in our population.

Covid is not a cult or a religion that can be believed in or not. It is a scientifically traceable virus that can and does kill people or leave them very debilitated. That is what we have to deal with. Sometimes we have to accept that some people - statisticians in this case - are better at doing what they do than we are.

MayBee70

Dr Johns latest blog agrees with the ZoeApp stats and the ONS one. He can’t understand why the government one seems to underplay the amount of infection in the country. Hmm. Maybe they don’t want to hit the magic figure of 100,000 and have to bring in Plan B before COP26. Surely not.

India all over again.

Never give up a good photo opportunity when the he can be in the limelight.

Hetty58

The 'with' or 'of' argument is daft. Having Covid can weaken your body to the point where an underlying condition (such as kidney disease) can kill you a decade earlier then it would have done.

Looking at the 'years of life lost' and 'excess deaths' figures is illuminating. Covid deniers (and minimisers) crave a 'back to normal, it's all over' fantasy life that simply doesn't exist.

I'm sick of hearing about 'damage to the economy and mental health' too - phrases just parroted out to excuse selfish, inconsiderate behaviour.

Well said Hetty! I agree with all of your post.

Why should already sick hospital patients be subjected to Russian Roulette with this virus. An already sick patient is obviously going to struggle to cope with the additional Covid onslaught.

We need to reduce the numbers to protect the vulnerable. Too many selfish people seem to have the attitude “they’re sick anyway, so they can die”.

It's true to say that if we reduced testing - our Covid statistics would be lower, our deaths due to other causes would be higher - yet reality would be exactly the same!

Galaxy

Are you saying that doesnt work

Surely she wouldn't lie to us! Maybe somebody could volunteer to try it out and let is know if it works (or not, if it doesn't).

Are you saying that doesnt work

MayBeMaw

American pie Fri 29-Oct-21 18:53:18
I think, IMHO, that people should stop getting tested so often

In the same way that shutting your eyes means an oncoming train won’t hit you and hiding under the bedclothes will stop lightning striking?

Statistics are misleading anyway. Take a look at 'Virus tests conducted' and you'll see that the rate of testing has reduced recently - so the figures may adjust/change accordingly later on:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The 'with' or 'of' argument is daft. Having Covid can weaken your body to the point where an underlying condition (such as kidney disease) can kill you a decade earlier then it would have done.

Looking at the 'years of life lost' and 'excess deaths' figures is illuminating. Covid deniers (and minimisers) crave a 'back to normal, it's all over' fantasy life that simply doesn't exist.

I'm sick of hearing about 'damage to the economy and mental health' too - phrases just parroted out to excuse selfish, inconsiderate behaviour.