COVID cases on the brink of breaking 100k a day (Zoe Covid Study)

Yesterday, the reported figure for new cases in the UK was under 40,000 and the most recent trend is downwards.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Deaths with COVID-19 in England over recent weeks have been broadly stable under 800 and under half of one percent of new cases 4 weeks previously. This is a very low percentage. Note also that many of the people who died with COVID-19 did not die of COVID-19.

We can and should do all we can to protect ourselves but we should not exaggerate the risks. It is important for our economic and mental well-being that we lead as normal lives as we can.

Yesterday’s figures were 13,000 less than last Thursday, looks like numbers are going down not up.

The ONS survey estimated 1.5m people in England were Covid positive last week, 1 in 50. My guess is that a lot of people with mild symptoms aren’t bothering to get tested.

Thanks Pippa. That was really interesting especially after listening to the interview with him the other day. Can anyone explain to me why we aren’t being told about the latest covid symptoms?

I've seen the "died with covid" argument so many times. The structure of such an argument is very obviously flawed if you know anything about statistics.

"With Covid" is simply a method of gathering statistics that shows trends. They could use "excess deaths" - another way of finding trends. That would give you a figure that is just about twice the number of deaths to those in the "with Covid" on the death certificate sample.

Both Zoe and the Government statistics provide estimated prevalence and incidence rates. Prevalence is the total number of estimated cases at any given time, whereas incidence is the estimated number of daily new cases. The Government also provides the total number of lab-confirmed cases each day. Zoe also does a symptom study.

If I remember rightly, Zoe picked up on the downward trend before the Government statistics did. In each case, one will be better than the other at some things. Isn't it good that we have both?

Just because you want one particular outcome to be right doesn't make it so. There are two good surveys. We need to look at them both.

Wales has reported a rise in the Delta variant by the way. I will wait for the scientists to tell me what that means.

Wales has reported a decrease in cases for the third consecutive day today, which is good news. Maybe because it’s half term. Our rates have been the highest in the UK for the last couple of weeks, but we largely avoided the summer peak so it was later here than elsewhere in the UK.

PS it’s been raining all week, which may be another contributory factor, it’s too horrible to go out and mix.

I was under the distinct impression that infection rates were falling and there's been a daily reduction all week.

Todays figures approximately 6,000 less than last Friday.

Thanks for the link Pippa. It shows the ONS finds consistently higher Covid figures than those quoted by the Government. Current ONS figures are 93,000 cases per day. Tim Spector says the Government will only introduce mandatory restrictions if cases reach 100,000. People appear not to be getting tested or reporting. A friend tested positive with a lateral flow recently, but failed to report this officially. This must be happening a lot country wide.

There were 915 hospitalisations yesterday, up 15% in a week. 10% of hospitals full of Covid cases is not an efficient way for the NHS to run.

We now have few restrictions, waning immunity, a slowing vaccination programme and we’re heading into winter.

Although 1m people a week are getting vaccinated, 2m have now become eligible, so it looks very likely the NHS will struggle to cope with boosters.

Cunco

Yesterday, the reported figure for new cases in the UK was under 40,000 and the most recent trend is downwards.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Deaths with COVID-19 in England over recent weeks have been broadly stable under 800 and under half of one percent of new cases 4 weeks previously. This is a very low percentage. Note also that many of the people who died with COVID-19 did not die of COVID-19.

We can and should do all we can to protect ourselves but we should not exaggerate the risks. It is important for our economic and mental well-being that we lead as normal lives as we can.

It is absolute rot to claim that many of the people who died with COVID didn't die of COVID, but it's been the mainstay of COVID denialists for so long, some people have come to believe it.

The well-worn "economic and well-being" argument is wearing a bit thin too.

GrannyGravy13

Todays figures approximately 6,000 less than last Friday.

But deaths and hospitalisations have increased. Haven't people been saying they're what matter?

If you look at the age breakdown of cases, it's because cases in school age children have plummeted over half-term.

Our Covid rules are to be stepped up in Wales following the press conference from the First Minister today. We will need Covid passes for cinema etc. if it is passed in Senedd next week, and self isolation rules are being tightened up if someone else in the household has covid. Quite worrying.

Is there going to be any extra financial and social support for those required to self-isolate? Without it, people with very mild symptoms won't bother testing.

Yes, we have a self isolation financial support scheme growstuff, it pays up to £750 to compensate for loss of earnings.

I think, IMHO, that people should stop getting tested so often. Our local council are offering prizes to people getting tested with no symptoms. It's as if the council want the pandemic to continue forever so that it can be used as an excuse for why nothing is being done. Nearly all council workers are still at home and the libraries still haven't fully opened to pre-pandemic hours. The vaccines do not stop anyone from passing the virus on so we have to learn to live with it.

A lot of schools are on half term now, a lot of secondary school were asking students to do lft tests twice a week and even a lot of primary schools were asking children to do lft tests...

So numbers are bound to fall during half term. I think we need to wait a couple more weeks for a more accurate picture

Imposing mask wearing in shops, crowded indoor settings and on public transport does no harm to the economy. It is a sensible precaution. Win win.

Many schools in our area had multiple cases in the lead up to half term too with numbers of children positive growing noticeably day by day.

Half term may put a slight slow on actual numbers but I think until herd immunity is acheived in younger children it won't be enough yet.

Americanpie

I think, IMHO, that people should stop getting tested so often. Our local council are offering prizes to people getting tested with no symptoms. It's as if the council want the pandemic to continue forever so that it can be used as an excuse for why nothing is being done. Nearly all council workers are still at home and the libraries still haven't fully opened to pre-pandemic hours. The vaccines do not stop anyone from passing the virus on so we have to learn to live with it.

I think the problem is understanding what "living with the virus" actually means.

But what do you mean by "learn to live with it". When I read that it comes over as is you are saying we must learn to live as if it's not there, i.e., learn to die with it.

If we are going to learn to live with it being there and still making people very ill and killing some, then surely "learning to live with it" means changing our behaviour from what it used to be to a more protective way of living?

However, suggest masks and we get Jacob Rees Mogg and his inconsiderate, thoughtless and selfish comments. We also get similar ones on here.

If we suggest people need to maintain a reasonable space you can see many people have not learned that this is what they need to do in order to "live" with it.

If we suggest the government should not wait until the worst has happened we are really whistling in the dark. This government does not care about people, only their personal opportunity for wealth. Again, the same could be said about how some post on here.

Don't you really mean we need to learn to be ill/die with it?

Americanpie

I think, IMHO, that people should stop getting tested so often. Our local council are offering prizes to people getting tested with no symptoms. It's as if the council want the pandemic to continue forever so that it can be used as an excuse for why nothing is being done. Nearly all council workers are still at home and the libraries still haven't fully opened to pre-pandemic hours. The vaccines do not stop anyone from passing the virus on so we have to learn to live with it.

One of the main problems during this pandemic is the lack of understanding about people being asymptomatic. The PM didn’t know about people being asymptomatic till months after a lot of us knew about it (albeit no surprise there though). If my daughter hadn’t been testing her son on regular basis she would have sent him to school with covid a day or so before he started to show any symptoms. Both the Alpha variant and the Delta variant took off in this country at a time when infection rates were soaring but nothing was done about it. You could argue that it was discovered here because our genomic sequencing is so good but the counter argument is that, if it is so good we should be able to stay one step ahead of the virus. But, for that to happen we need to be proactive, not reactive. And this doesn’t seem to happen.

Growstuff: I am not denying anything. I am looking at the statistics on a daily and weekly basis. The death data is provided by ONS every Tuesday if you want to check my arithmetic.

You may be interested in this quote I saw today: ‘The majority of those that die do so with Covid and not of Covid.’

– Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist