The virus isn’t dangerous till Boxing Day

He’s listening to the scientists. Less so this time around to the ‘modellers’ who in the past have given worst case scenarios that have consistently been proved incorrect. There’s nothing to stop him on Monday saying ‘as from midnight tonight ...’ if he feels that is warranted. I thought Drakeford was a bit goady on SKY news about the response in England.

Dont know about England but here we've been asked to be careful up until Christmas so that it can still go ahead.The tactics appear to be working as we only had 2200ish cases today Remember that we have eight and a half % of the whole population.
.England had over 96000 in the same period .
After Christmas there are new guidlines and most people accept them but all the big Hogmanay events have been cancelled and Football resticted to 500 fans a a game .We need to get over this and by distancing ourselves from others is the only way to stop transmission.Of course Bojo taking all those countries OFF the red list wont help .....but when did he do anything that would?

If he did make more stringent rules there'd be protests spreading more virus?
Is this part of his reasoning? Or is it because of his record of following the rules?

It's as baffling as to the 3 headlines currently running:

WHO says vaccine booster programs will prolong Covid crisis: 'No country can boost its way out of the pandemic'

and

The global pandemic should come to an end next year, according to officials at the World Health Organization.

and

WHO boss: western countries’ Covid booster drives likely to prolong pandemic

No wonder we don’t know if we’re coming or going.

Boris isn’t listening to the scientists, they are urging greater measures now. Drakeford is listening to them however - as are Scotland, NI, and the other European nations.

If Boris has called it right then Drakeford & Sturgeon will be accused of over reacting. If they’ve called it right Boris will get slated (unless of course he announces stricter measures next Monday). Time will tell I suppose.

Liverpool has roughly the same population as Glasgow.
Liverpool 7-day average per 100k = 697, Glasgow = 757

I stopped listening to the WHO when they didn’t investigate China thoroughly.

I think the powers that be are dammed if they do and damned if they don’t!
But much is also down to the individual - just because pubs are allowed to be open - doesn’t mean going is obligatory.
Just because restaurants are open doesn’t mean you have to eat in them.
Likewise with travelling by train , going to the supermarket /church/ shops/cafes /whatever.
Face coverings can still be worn and there is nothing to stop us keeping a discreet social distance from those around us, or abstaining from hugging or kissing

Do you see where I am going?

The WHO aren't opposed to boosters, they're concerned that rich countries are now focussed on boosters - rather than helping poor countries with immunisation and vaccine supply.

They have a very good point, in that Covid will just continue to circulate at unacceptable levels until there's a worldwide effort to limit it. We can't and won't shut ourselves off from it. We don't have very effective testing or quarantine arrangements.

Casdon

Boris isn’t listening to the scientists, they are urging greater measures now. Drakeford is listening to them however - as are Scotland, NI, and the other European nations.

I agree, Casdon. All the scientists I follow are tearing their hair out over the ridiculous decision to prioritise Christmas over a rapidly progressing highly infectious covid variant. 102,000+ new cases recorded today, the highest ever. Hospital admissions rising. Goodness knows how many people off work sick with it. Every day delaying will make the situation worse.

But our lame duck PM seems to think that 'saving Christmas' will regain him some of his lost popularity. And he daren't antagonise his loony right wing.

I would link to to a good twitter thread on 'modelling' and the interpretation of 'models' but I don't think that the person who really needs to read it would bother.

I think everyone is aware by now there is a dangerous virus spreading fast, and how to avoid catching it. So people should make their own decisions on how to protect themselves. We should take responsibility for ourselves.

The latest three pieces of research from England, Scotland and South Africa appears to indicate that this variant is not as serious as first thought. Yes, it is very transmissible but fewer people are hospitalised compared to the Delta outbreak, those in ICU are mainly unvaccinated and people who are double vaccinated or have had Covid are less likely to be seriously ill.

These reports were in several newspapers and the BBC News tonight. Some scientists are now revising their models to much lower figures.

However, it is very days, the research using data from Scotland is based on very few cases so I feel somewhat optimistic but it’s a knife edge at the moment and the data could change. Maybe in a few days it will be the case that the government made the right decision not to rush into stricter measures, I really hope so.

I know, right?

The virus had an alarm that is activated at 12/26 at midnight (sarcasm on)

MayBeMaw

I think the powers that be are dammed if they do and damned if they don’t!
But much is also down to the individual - just because pubs are allowed to be open - doesn’t mean going is obligatory.
Just because restaurants are open doesn’t mean you have to eat in them.
Likewise with travelling by train , going to the supermarket /church/ shops/cafes /whatever.
Face coverings can still be worn and there is nothing to stop us keeping a discreet social distance from those around us, or abstaining from hugging or kissing

Do you see where I am going?

Totally agree a very sensible post

I stopped taking any notice of WHO a while back. You are better off listening to your own scientists who don't have political motives.

Goady, urms? Contrary is the word that best describes Drakeford IMO.

If Boris followed one path, he’d go opposite purely because he hates him (check out a YouTube video where he discusses Boris with a colleague - our FM has a face like chewed up toffee!). Drakeford is a Corbyn groupie so not a lot of common ground methinks.

As for the UK positive tests yesterday, as a proportion of the total tests done in the UK (approx 1.5 million) it was less than 10% - and Wales figures were approx 4,500 positive in 25,500 tests so what on earth is Drakeford crowing about?

By the way, here in Spain cases have doubled in days - from 25-30,000 positives to 60,000 yesterday and they, along with most European countries, don’t test anywhere near the numbers the UK do - seek and you shall find eh?

Saw a scientist on tv from Edinburgh University late last night. His department has apparently made a very positive discovery regarding the Omicron virus. He said he is going to bed with a smile on his face for the first time in months. I think we should be encouraged but vigilant.

MayBeMaw

I think the powers that be are dammed if they do and damned if they don’t!
But much is also down to the individual - just because pubs are allowed to be open - doesn’t mean going is obligatory.
Just because restaurants are open doesn’t mean you have to eat in them.
Likewise with travelling by train , going to the supermarket /church/ shops/cafes /whatever.
Face coverings can still be worn and there is nothing to stop us keeping a discreet social distance from those around us, or abstaining from hugging or kissing

Do you see where I am going?

A great post ?

I don’t need Boris to tell me how to stay safe or protect anyone else.

It has been said from the start that the South African experience of omicron suggests that it milder than previous variants, even when they broke the figures down by age, older people were doing better than expected.

For the last week while numbers in the UK with omicron have rocketted, hospital admissions and deaths haven't, and more and more evidence is coming out that most of those in hospital are unvaccinated.

Yes, the danger isn't over, we all need to continue to wear masks an socialise with caution, but once again the Sage forecasts have been unduly doom laden.

Scientists have said that there is no point in comparing completely different countries. It's not like for like.

South Africa has a younger population than the UK. It's also the middle of summer there so people are not indoors with windows closed and the central heating blasting.

Also Sparklefizz we have a much higher vacination rate than Africa

MayBeMaw

I think the powers that be are dammed if they do and damned if they don’t!
But much is also down to the individual - just because pubs are allowed to be open - doesn’t mean going is obligatory.
Just because restaurants are open doesn’t mean you have to eat in them.
Likewise with travelling by train , going to the supermarket /church/ shops/cafes /whatever.
Face coverings can still be worn and there is nothing to stop us keeping a discreet social distance from those around us, or abstaining from hugging or kissing

Do you see where I am going?

Agree 100%.

My friends and family are choosing to prioritise.

Footfall in the local shops and cafés is dropping.

Naturally, I'm sorry for restaurateurs and shopkeepers but certainly round by me people are choosing not to take risks.