Nearly 2300 deaths over the last 7 days

I havent been on the site, so thank you.

Anybody been on that site tonight?

1,628. Down 30% in 2 days.

There used to be separate figures for reported cases, which originally excluded repeat infections, and the ONS data, which was based on a random sample. Producing data on positive LFT results relied on people actually reporting results und probably underreported the number of cases.

AFAIK the ONS sampling is continuing and gives the best estimate of the number of cases. Unfortunately, reports aren't produced daily, so there's a reporting lag.

Results of lateral flow tests have never been used to work out the number of the population testing positive.

They have.

fullfact.org/health/lateral-flow-tests-covid-counting/

I managed to report a test (LFT) on Tuesday of this week with no problem.

Petera

maddyone

It’s not possible to report a lateral flow test anymore so I’m not sure how anyone really knows the number of cases.

I thought you could still report, even though the tests are no longer free?

Results of lateral flow tests have never been used to work out the number of the population testing positive.
The Office for National Statistics have volunteers all over the country who provide samples. The results are then extrapolated from that data.

Apologies first. I know that talking about deaths in statistics is upsetting to some, but I don’t know another way of doing it.

The headline number of deaths reported on the daily update on the website that the OP links to is currently 2,062. But to understand what this means you have to follow the link to the Deaths page, from the left hand side of the page.
2,062 is the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive test, reported in the last 7 days. This is not linked to the date of death and can be misleading because there are deaths in there from more than 7 days ago.

The number of deaths within 28 days of a positive test based on the date of death over the last 7 days is 958. If you come back in a week and look at the number of deaths that actually happened between 20th April and 27th April, it will be more than 958 because deaths are reported after the event. Obviously. This is still number of deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

Neither of these refers to the number of deaths with Covid on the Death certificate. The latest weekly figure for that measure is 1,150, measured on the 15th April. Because this data takes time to come in.

While COVID was so deadly, the best measure we had was the “within 28 days” one. But now people can test positive for Covid on day 1, but still die of something else completely within 28 days. So the Death certificate metric is now the most reliable measure.

This with/of thing was used originally by deniers, but it is more applicable now that there are high numbers of cases, but the mortality rate is lower. And why thinking that there were 2,300 deaths from COVID in the last week is just not correct.

Apologies again if I’m teaching my granny to suck eggs.

Baggs

This is an interesting look at how covid affected deaths from other causes. Apparently during the pandemic there were 34,000 fewer deaths from other causes than were statistically expected.

The reason I'm posting this is because a raw statement of numbers of deaths does not really tell us much of any use.

David Spiegelhalter was talking about this. The death rate in (I think it was) the 18-25 range has gone down because they were less susceptible to COVID but were also restricted from indulging in all the other dangerous behaviour that is normal.

maddyone

Petera I tried to report a test after free tests were abolished because I always test before I visit my mother in her care home, but I couldn’t report it. It wouldn’t go. So now I do the test but don’t try to report it.

Thanks maddyone

Petera I tried to report a test after free tests were abolished because I always test before I visit my mother in her care home, but I couldn’t report it. It wouldn’t go. So now I do the test but don’t try to report it.

This is an interesting look at how covid affected deaths from other causes. Apparently during the pandemic there were 34,000 fewer deaths from other causes than were statistically expected.

The reason I'm posting this is because a raw statement of numbers of deaths does not really tell us much of any use.

maddyone

It’s not possible to report a lateral flow test anymore so I’m not sure how anyone really knows the number of cases.

I thought you could still report, even though the tests are no longer free?

I’m not sure that I understand the with Covid opposed to from Covid. Surely if a person goes into a hospital with for example, a heart attack, and then contracts Covid as well. Surely if the person dies, the Covid has exacerbated the illness and contributed to the death, and that’s why Covid is on the death certificate.

I had Covid, it was awful, I still have a vile headache, achy joints and feel so tired all the time, had all the vaccinations, I pity anyone not vacinnated if they get it, I cant see how you would get through it.Thats why the medical profession are wearing masks and not seeing people properly, they know how bad it is.

We also have to bear in mind the seasonal deaths that would be happening if there was no Covid-19. People die! Sometimes they die from Covid-19 but often the Covid-19 just causes their original illness to exacerbate. There are less healthy people now ending up in hospital and even people with poor health surviving. We wait (hopefully in vain) for a more serious variant to emerge and take things as they are needed at that time. Its not going to go away, and scientists knew that from the beginning.

A lot of these deaths died "with" Covid-19 not because of it. They go into hospital for another reason and have Covid-19 when they go in but die from their original illness.

As far as I can see, the rolling 7 day total has been over 2,000 for the last couple of weeks - even accounting for the lags caused by the bank holiday.

How shall I put this.... I don't think that is actually the case ?

Apparently there was a 60 year old lady died in Italy. The lady and her husband had been on a cruise. I felt so very sorry for them. Both going a lovely holiday, then only one returning. What a shock for the family.

BlueBelle

Are you correct that they are deaths FROM CoviD or WITH CoviD Growstuff my understanding is that it’s ‘with’
Everyone here seems to have had it in the last month including my 2 very vulnerable friends but none have had any severe symptoms thankfully

Oh dear! I'm sure you know that is at least partly semantics.

volver

Now now, please read what I said...

At time of writing the last seven days had had 700 deaths. I commented that this number would probably grow. And it has. However the 700 was in counterpoint to the 2,300 that the OP had mentioned.

Nobody's in denial.

Now now! Did I mention anything about denial? I asked a question about which day had only had 700 deaths over the previous 7 days.

As far as I can see, the rolling 7 day total has been over 2,000 for the last couple of weeks - even accounting for the lags caused by the bank holiday.

I'm going to make a prediction. Tomorrow's number will drop significantly.

Today's stats indicated over 2000 deaths in the last 7 days. A drop, but still a staggering figure.

I have just this week heard of a covid death.
With/of, I'm not sure, but the person was a fit, active 68 year old who was at home with covid.

It’s not possible to report a lateral flow test anymore so I’m not sure how anyone really knows the number of cases.

Are you correct that they are deaths FROM CoviD or WITH CoviD Growstuff my understanding is that it’s ‘with’
Everyone here seems to have had it in the last month including my 2 very vulnerable friends but none have had any severe symptoms thankfully