Coronavirus

If someone died at home there would be a PM I think, Witzend.

It is more likely that people would die from complications arising fro flu, not from the flu itself, eg pneumonia, sepsis, inflammation of the heart etc, organ failure. We know of two previously young, fit, healthy men who died from complications arising from flu and another who just survived.

Witzend does not know what s/he is talking about.

Witzend didn't say anything to merit that remark, surely?

She asked a question about how the rates are calculated, then stated what she does if she has flu, which I suspect is what most people do.

My feeling is one of concerned calm, I guess you could say. Many afflicted people have minor symptoms while others, some healthy-some not, go on to have severe, if not life-threatening, experiences. Being 65 and diagnosed (as a non-smoker) with COPD, I would have about a 1 in 10 chance of being in that second group. I have an adult son with a poor immune system who gets everything including MRSA, and a stepson with advanced lung cancer. It's scary for that reason even though there's nothing to be done about it. I don't want to panic. I DO choose to be prudent and informed, however.

So, knowing that I may need to have to stay home for up to a month, I am going to get my prescriptions filled and order a few food and health items - dried beans, soap, tissues, etc. - to tide me over. Given that I live 20 miles from the first person in the US to become ill from a community source and not a traveler, I'd rather be a little more prepared than not.

Re/ the debate about contagion and fatality rates, this is from an article published today in the The New England Journal of Medicine:

^COVID-19 poses a serious threat to the world because it’s far more deadly and contagious than many other deadly viruses. First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems...Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase... World health leaders say the disease is spread by people who are mildly ill or don’t show any symptoms at all, making it harder to contain and more contagious than other types of viruses.

The mortality rate is many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza...The World Health Organization said the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it’s treated... Its current average estimated fatality rate of around 1% places it somewhere between the 1957 Asian flu pandemic (0.6%) that killed 1.1 million people and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (2%) that killed 50 million around the world, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.^

Did she really think that in calculating flu rates, the authorities hadn’t taken into account that not all cases present to doctors?

She said ^death rates from flu'.

In the case of one person I knew, death was eventual kidney failure and presumably recorded as such but it began with flu in a fit and healthy young man.

Thanks gmarie exactly. If anyone wants to contradict your post, perhaps they could actually quote an authoritative source rather than making it all up as they go along in order to mock those of us who have concerns.

Funnily enough Call in the calculations they take into account complications arising from flu.

I'm somewhat worried, too, about the financial repercussions. While I was typing the post, above, I got an article notification from the Sacramento Bee about the STRS (State Teachers Retirement System) pension fund: The value of California’s largest public pension fund dropped by at least $15 billion this week as U.S. and international markets fell amid coronavirus fears. Again, nothing to be done about it but it does put me a little more on edge. I suppose if worse comes to worst, I could always rent my extra bedrooms out and have a granny cooperative.

I felt right from the very start that this disease would be the one to cause a pandemic. I think the two week (or more!) incubation period is what makes it so dangerous. How many people do you come into contact with in two weeks, especially if you travel daily on public transport or work in a large office or institution? Because of that long incubation period it will spread like wildfire because no-one knows when they have it.

Agree with you, Chestnut. It's that uncertainty about so many things - How many people are positive for the virus but asymptomatic? How long is the incubation period - 14 days? 27 days? Just read in my paper that several employees had been sent home from the local Kaiser medical center that I go to because they may have been exposed to the virus. I wasn't even aware of any cases in my city.

In the states, we have the added burden of a president who is more concerned about his approval ratings and getting elected than he is in being forthcoming with information and protecting the public.

He slashed health spending by 15 billion dollars in 2018 with deep cuts in staff and funding in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - 80% in the area of preventing global disease outbreak. Right now only eight of 100 public-health labs are able to test for Covid-19. And since yesterday, it's now White House policy that all federal officials, including those with health expertise have to receive authorization to before addressing the public!

Some friends have jus traveled back from Thailand.
This journey involved, a cab,3 airports, two planes, a train from Heathrow to London another train north and finally another cab.
I will not be seeing them for at least 3 weeks.

I'm currently quite relaxed about the situation, simply based on the so far slow infection rate. I live in London and still work so can't go into isolation - unless I were ill of course.

In a city of about 9 million with the busiest international airport in the world I think we have had only one sufferer (the woman who took an Uber to hospital). And in the UK as a whole 20 people infected.

Unless there is some serious under-reporting or under-testing I'll remain calm about the whole thing.

This thread was started over two weeks ago, at a time when flights from Wuhan were still landing, and the numbers have hardly moved.

By the time a vaccine is sought some other virus will crop up thus making protection for this one virtually useless. These vaccines are a year or so behind . I know this from experience

I'm surprised people are not being advised to wear gloves while out and about. I have several pairs which can go in the wash. We can't avoid touching surfaces when travelling, shopping etc. but wearing gloves must help a bit, along with gel/hand washing as soon as we come home.

yes, I thought that Ruby, but when I suggested it I was laughed out of court. I have a big box of latex gloves at home and I can see no reason why one shouldn't wash ones hands as soon as you get to the supermarket or doing other food shopping and then take them off and discard them in a bin when you get home.

I agree about the gloves. On the BBC news last night we were told all about hand washing and using disposable hankies. He was talking to the camera in a public toilet, and after washing his hands he then walked to the door and opened it with his hand! I think door handles should be of prime concern but he never mentioned that. Also handrails in buses and trains. Gloves could be a huge help.

Those mini hand gels should help while out and about and a good thorough wash once we get home. Would you know if hand gels have an expiry date as I've found some in my holiday suitcase.

The hand gels are nowhere near as effective as hand washing. I wouldn't rely on them. Gloves are better.

Whereabouts in Surrey does the latest victim live?

I work in a role where I see people from all over the world every day for 8 hours. Our team have been given hand gel. Tiny little bottles of hand gel. The whole team have been sick with colds / coughs / chest infections . Not 1 person from the ivory towers has a plan , or even really gives a toss. The show must go on. Until one of those in the refined air gets something then and only then will measures be put into place. I’m afraid that it’s just the beginning of something much worse.

I'm debating whether I should use my already booked flights to fly back to the UK for 3 weeks in my upcoming school holiday.

I did it a month ago and just washed my hands a lot. Ideally, I'd wear masks (have several so I could change them hourly) and gloves but living where I do, there is no where to buy them.

On a positive note, things seem to be calming down in China. While they are getting new infections still, the rates have slowed AND parts of China are returning to normal. It seems to have been, what, about a month to six weeks of peak? In which case, the UK probably has about 2 months to go before things calm there a bit.

www.chinaskinny.com/blog/coronavirus-dangerous-opportunities/

JenniferEccles Whereabouts in Surrey does the latest victim live?

I think it was Haslemere.

Chestnut and after washing his hands he then walked to the door and opened it with his hand!

I immediately noticed that, too.

I am always careful if I've handled money ever since a bus driver was sacked for using cocaine, and it turned out that he was totally innocent and had got it on his fingers from notes people used to pay their bus fares. I would rather be OCD re handwashing than not.

Oh thanks Sparklefizz. It’s the first ‘home grown’ case I understand.

suziewoosie - "The rubbish that keeps getting repeated in this thread. I despair. Hurdy Gurdy the death rates for seasonal flu is FAR BELOW the death rate for COVID 19 on all the evidence we have so far.

My response - This is from the government's published paper on influenza from 2018/2019 - assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf
"The case fatality rate (ie proportion of ICU influenza cases which have died due to
influenza) of 19.9% (33/166) is slightly lower than seen in previous seasons 2017 to
2018 (24.4%, 40/164), 2016 to 2017 (26.9%, 23/89) and 2015 to 2016 (26.5%, 50/189)."

Whereas from the BBC health section www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743
"Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%."*

I don't think fatality rates of 19.9%, 24.4%, 26.9% and 26.5%, 50/189 can be classed as "FAR BELOW" that of Coronavirus, at 1%.

There are people on this thread in the vulnerable groups.
including me!

Why are some posters so determined to minimise the concern felt by other posters? If you’re not concerned well bully for you in your safe smug little worlds but why keep posting on here with information we all know already?"

I think that comment about "being safe in my smug little world" is uncalled for and unnecessary.
My views remain the same - that we need to take reasonable precautions, but not allow the media, which is well know for whipping up hysteria, to panic us unnecessarily.