In October 2022, there were 119 billion Premium Bonds.
Premium Bonds represent about 5% of the national debt which was 2437 billion in June 2022 (ONS).
The government have increased the premium bond prize fund rate – the proportion of the total amount invested paid out in prizes from 2.2% to 3% from January 2023. This is in response the increased rates bank are offering on savings.
The odds of winning something are 24000:1.
Sarah Coles, a senior personal finance analyst at the investment company Hargreaves Lansdown, says the shake-up is “a clever move at a time when we know people are searching for a solution to the financial dead end they have found themselves in”.
She adds: “We know prize draws become far more tempting at times like this, so premium bonds are positioning themselves as the ultimate game of chance – with your money back if you lose.”
However, it is important to be aware of the big downside of premium bonds in the current climate: they don’t pay any interest and so are more vulnerable to inflation than other savings.
And while you could strike it lucky and scoop a life-changing sum, there is no guarantee you will win anything at all.
www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/16/premium-bonds-big-prizes-chances-odds
£50000 in a fixed rate ISA paying 4.5% p.a. for three years is going to yield at least £6750 tax free, more if you leave the interest in. The same amount at the same rate in a taxable account will yield £4050 net for a higher rate taxpayer - more if they haven’t used up the £1000 tax free savings allowance elsewhere.
I tried the Probability Calculator on Martin Lewis’s Money Supermarket:
www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds-calculator/#result
It says that £50,000 over one year with average luck could win you £1000. Over three years it could would win you £2500.
It’s not clear if the calculator has been updated yet to take into account the 2023 changes.
So whether PBs are a good investment is very much open to debate, personal circumstances, how many bonds you have and how much you win and whether people are willing to trade a guaranteed return for a game of chance especially now that bank rates have risen.