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The Ageing Population Timebomb - Myth or Fact?

(36 Posts)
HollyDaze Sun 16-Mar-14 13:39:39

If there is one thing that will get my goat quite quickly, it is politicians (worldwide it would seem) berating people for getting older and draining the country of every resource including housing and money.

I am amazed that they are amazed that all these older people exist - were they not expecting us? Did we just materialise one day in order to take up valuable living space and claim the overly generous pensions (said tongue in cheek) and lie in hospital beds because we haven't got the decency to die sooner?

I decided to look into it and, as usual, all is not as it seems on the surface.

From the 1970s/80s, the problem of the elderly has been put forward in order to bring about an anti-welfarist consensus in Anglo-American societies and it highlights some very important trends in society.

It coincides with the tendency to marginalize the elderly from the labour market and from society at large.

The real issue isn’t that there aren’t enough people capable of working to support an older population, it is more that, increasingly, older people find it difficult to find employment in order to support themselves. According to recently published figures, employment for older men has declined faster than any other age group. As a result, a third of men aged between 50 and 65 are now jobless in Britain. Demography has little to do with enforced early retirement. It is this shortening of working life which is likely to create difficulties for the economic position of the elderly.

Over the past 54 years, the United Kingdom - Age dependency ratio has remained fairly static beginning with 54% in 1960 and 51% in 2011. It peaked in the 1970s at close to 60% for most of the decade. The percentages shown put Britain in middle ranking worldwide for age dependency ratios.

The British government requested two reviews from Sir Derek Wanless but don’t appear to have adopted the recommendations made by Derek Wanless and The King’s Fund www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/press-releases/wanless-review-calls-extra-money-and-new-funding-system

Canada has undergone the same process we are undergoing but with very different results: University of British Columbia health economist Morris Barer says Canadian researchers have known for more than 2 decades “that the aging of Canada’s population has a very small impact on Canadian health care costs and will continue to have a relatively small impact. Speaking to the Canadian Association of Health Services and Policy Research last year, Barer said his group alone had written 3 papers focusing on this subject over a period of 15 years but the concept of a demographic time bomb persists despite evidence to the contrary.

So given that no research exists to support the argument that the elderly are to blame, why does this persist? Is Canada managing its health service better than the UK does? Is it a way for governments to opt out of social welfare? Why do the counter-arguments never seem to gain as much airtime or column inches as the doomsayers?

Any thoughts?

(the above has been copied from various websites including Dominic Lawson on 'The Imaginary Timebomb' by Phil Mullan and the Canadian Health Service report)

petallus Mon 17-Mar-14 11:41:48

They do say average life expectancy has gone up and is still going up, so there will be many more people reaching the age of 100 than there used to be.

Makes sense with the advances made in medical science and improvements in living standards.

I don't understand why we should take it personally and rage against it grin

rosequartz Mon 17-Mar-14 12:02:15

How sharper than a serpent's tooth it is to have a thankless child

HollyDaze Mon 17-Mar-14 13:50:59

whatsgoingon - well said. You'd think from reading some of the posts on here that the white people of Britain wouldn't know how to work if their lives depended on it! Oh, and we all dodge tax apparently confused

On a personal level, I've known good and bad in several nationalities. I've found that where you are from makes very little difference to whether or not someone is a good contributor to society.

HollyDaze Mon 17-Mar-14 13:54:44

Aka - I don't think I said it was your quote did I? You didn't state a source so if I had stated it was your comment, I would have been forgiven for doing so and without the source, we only have your word for its legitimacy.

My quote (that used the word 'notion',) was clearly stated as coming from Dr Anderson who is a senior research fellow at the Centre on Migration, Policy & Society at the University of Oxford - I'm pretty sure she will know what she's talking about wink

HollyDaze Mon 17-Mar-14 13:59:44

My apologies Aka - I have only just spotted your link (with thanks to mollie65) and have had a quick look (but I would take most of what is written in the Huffington Post with a pinch of salt) so it would seem to come down to a contest of who is more accurate: Oxford or London.

To state that all immigrants are better educated than the local population is stretching things a bit too far - unless they have carried out mass testing (which, as far as I know, they haven't) how can they possibly know that? Or is it an endictment against our education system that it can be taken for granted?

mollie65 Mon 17-Mar-14 14:58:50

aka I do realise it is a recognised methodology - I did statistics as part of my degree but I do question how from a smallish sample no matter how representative it is a great leap to suggest the 'natives' are not contributing as much as the 'immigrants' when there are many more of the 'natives' to be sampled.
always take any survey with a massive dose of incredulity. they did not appear to give the numbers questioned shock

FlicketyB Mon 17-Mar-14 16:35:56

Aka, I remember the WRVS report coming out and I noted at the time how little it was written about in the media compared with all those reports that say we are a burden on the state.

Nonnie Mon 17-Mar-14 17:02:59

Why do we blame politicians for this? I thought it was the media. I think we will find that the politicians won't slate us in the next year or so as we are the ones who vote. [cynical emoticon]

I read about a year ago that the theory that we will continue to live longer and longer has been challenged and may not be true.

HollyDaze Wed 19-Mar-14 11:46:27

Nonnie

Why do we blame politicians for this?

The first time I heard it used was by politicians in one of the speeches to either their party or the nation so maybe the media picked it up and ran with it - and ran with it and still run (as they tend to do - like little terriers with a bone!) with it even though it has been debunked as causal of the effect that they are claiming.

Aka Wed 19-Mar-14 14:40:09

Mollie sample size 60,000.