Gransnet forums

News & politics

All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

Ana Tue 05-May-15 18:20:33

What are you going to do, whitewave? Waylay voters as they approach the polling station and only let them in if they promise to vote Labour? confused

whitewave Tue 05-May-15 18:22:12

No idea ana but I have to turn up at 7am tomorrow - blimey

Ana Tue 05-May-15 18:27:06

For your induction? grin
Good luck - you'll probably be so knackered by Thursday evening you'll be past caring who gets in!

whitewave Tue 05-May-15 18:29:18

Yes I think you are right!

rosesarered Tue 05-May-15 21:07:35

I always feel sorry for the people working in the polling stations, what a tiring job they have.

durhamjen Tue 05-May-15 22:30:20

Watched the Daily Politics welfare debate today. Iain Duncan Smith said that they would cut £12 billion from welfare, but they still did not know where, because they hadn't looked at the figures yet.
I hope lots of waverers saw that.

Eloethan Tue 05-May-15 22:33:58

whitewave Good for you.

Ana Tue 05-May-15 22:44:24

I wonder how many waverers looked at Ed's Tombstone of Promises and thought what the....?

durhamjen Tue 05-May-15 22:55:07

www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/05/revealed-coalition-plans-to-slash-welfare-for-sick-poor-young-and-disabled

IDS tells fibs, anyway.

Ana Tue 05-May-15 22:56:25

Don't they all? grin

whitewave Wed 06-May-15 09:19:23

I have been penciled in to help this afternoon - 2nd shift I guess so that was a relief!

Latest polls

Tory 273
Lab 268
SNP 56
Lib 28
Green 1
Ukip 1
others 22

Tories lead Labour by 5 but would not be able to form a government IMO

Anniebach Wed 06-May-15 09:58:15

The 1992 election keeps coming to mind. I see similarities

whitewave Wed 06-May-15 10:05:07

annie shock

Anniebach Wed 06-May-15 10:25:12

I know whitewave, but think back, neck and neck in the polls, vile personal attacks in the Tory press, and greed is good was still strong in the country . I will think of you when I am doing my stint in the polling station , I am also on the pick up the voters run and the 8-10 PM who hasn't turned out round up, and in full knowledge the battle in my constituency is between Libs and Tories .

whitewave Wed 06-May-15 10:48:51

annie I am starting at 2pm - have to wear wet weather gear hmm I am in a marginal and we stand an excellent chance of winning, next to us is Caroline Lucas and then next to her is another marginal which the Tories will hopefully lose to Labour. So being down south isn't all badgrin

annodomini Wed 06-May-15 11:27:14

I hope those of you who are out and about tomorrow have a dry day! It's pretty miserable rounding up late voters in the pouring rain as I well remember. But it can be interesting sitting outside a polling station exchanging pleasantries with representatives of other parties - sometimes surprisingly human. grin No more activism for me. I have become disillusioned in the past five years, though nothing would stop me voting. I'm glad that I don't have to spend half the night creating election literature and most of the day delivering it!

rosesarered Wed 06-May-15 11:59:03

After going to vote tomorrow morning, we are out for the day and won't be back until Friday lunchtime. hope something will be sorted out by then, one way or the other. we need things to be settled as it's bad to have dithering and indecision about a new government for too long.The worst could be another election later in the year.Hope all those going to help out at polling stations have an exciting time(or not too boring anyway.)I wonder if this election will have people voting who usually don't bother to?Meantime, don't forget to watch the hilarious Ballot Monkeys, the last one tonight.

durhamjen Wed 06-May-15 16:06:58

Whitewave, it looks like it's all blue to the west of you until you reach Southampton Itchen. That's why we moved back north from Hampshire in the 80s. Just didn't fit in round Winchester.
My husband actually stood as a Labour councillor and doubled the vote to 100. Everybody praised him.

Iam64 Wed 06-May-15 18:50:04

My husband was out canvassing this morning, in the pouring rain. He tells me the weather forecast for tomorrow is for a drier day. Our MP is Labour and has been a good local MP for many years now. We were one of those key marginals until he won the seat. The Labour MP 4 miles away on the other side of town has a majority of less than 90 - that really is a key marginal, here's hoping she holds her seat.

whitewave Wed 06-May-15 18:53:47

dj my children live in Tory areas, much to their annoyance. My son has read all the manifestos and is a bit unhappy about what cuts the Labour have said they are going to do - he works for the Environment Agency - but it hasn't put him off - for the greater good he saysgrin

jinglbellsfrocks Wed 06-May-15 18:57:26

I only looked briefly at Ed's stone, but I thought it was rather a clever idea!

Nelliemoser Wed 06-May-15 18:58:37

I don't think anyone can make any real impression in my constituency. It's been a Tory stronghold for years.

I do still have my vote Labour poster in the window. The only one in the 30 houses here.

Ana Wed 06-May-15 18:59:15

So cuts are 'for the greater good' when Labour does them, but 'savage' when the Conservatives do them? confused

whitewave Wed 06-May-15 19:03:59

Oh I didn't ask what he thought about the Tory cuts so can't answer that, ana but I do know that he has ploughed through all the manifestos and has finally made up his mind.

durhamjen Wed 06-May-15 19:50:14

Iain Duncan Smith said yesterday that he did not know where the cuts are coming because they hadn't looked at the figures yet. But he expects us to trust him? Dream on.