European Union in or out

I am off on holiday tomorrow so will miss this good discussion. eloethen and others. The Germans have followed a type of strict monetary policy controlling prices since the war. They tried to impose this on Greece and there I think is the problem. I think that culturally and economically some EU countries cannot accept the German way, I think is causing a great deal of tension. The EU is not for sure a club of equals. That is where the UK comes in providing a balance.

Agreed- the EU has many faults and they need to be addressed indeed. And it is very much between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea..

Having just witnessed what has been happening in Switzerland though, made me very aware of just how hard it is to renegotiate when small and in a minority.

Huge concerns too about terrorism and crime and exchange of intelligence, etc.

But oh the irnoy of it all for us personally. If Brexiters do win, and the reciprocal arrangements re pensions being indexed, health care, etc, were cancelled- and the £ would plummet further (it was 2.50 francs to the £ when we came 7 years ago- it dropped to 1.18 about 2 years ago, and is now back to about 1.40 - so we have lost a significant % of our income directly (and of course indirectly as everything is much more expensive here- OUR choice, NOT complaining here- just saying)- we would probably have NO choice but to return to UK. Which would be totally fine for me- we would come back here to visit often and have so many friends who can put us up, and could rent a small place .... and daughters, GCs and so many relatives and friends in the UK. And funnily enough, we would make a massive profit- as we would then re-exchange a very high franc in the sale of the house, versus a very low Pound. So selfishly I should be in favour of Brexit. I am not.

Che sera, sera.

Yes I agree, Eloethan has spoken for me also, particularly with regard to the shoddy treatment of Greece and the fact that some countries turn inwards and revert to nationalism and protectionism when they feel their particular interests are threatened which is rather contrary to the "all in this club together" ethos that the EU is purportedly all about. As you say Eleoethan it's the imponderables of a Brexit that leaves many of us undecided.

I think you have posted much of what I have been pondering Eloethan and why I am still undecided.
I agree that Greece has been treated very badly by the EU and I do not believe that all countries are happy with the EU as it is or will be in the future. Greece was in a mess but has it all been made worse and are the Greeks now resentful?

However, I also agree about the other powerful nations and the fact that perhaps we need to be in a group for economic protection - although we are still accepting huge investment from these nations, so does it make that much difference?

The EU has some excellent advantages, but not all is sunny and bright, and quite honestly I wonder sometimes if it is on the brink of a disastrous break-up.

Crystal ball needed.

For me, the issue is not about immigration.

What concerns me is:

When the chips are down, the countries in the EU seem prepared to drop one another in it in order to protect their own interests. I know that there are other powerful power blocs such as the US, Russia and China, and perhaps it's inevitable that we have to join some sort of "club" for economic protection but let's not kid ourselves that the EU is in any way a benevolent organisation.

The way that Greece has been treated by its EU "friends" has appalled me. Firstly, it has been subjected to the most brutal austerity programme that financial commentators say has actually further weakened its economy. Refugees and other migrants have been shunted from one place to another and treated disgracefully by some EU countries and Greece, already in a terrible financial position, was left to cope with the rising number of people arriving on its shores. (We don't, incidentally, hear very much these days about refugees drowning in the Med even though there have been several recent incidents of 300 or more people drowning).

There is also some question as to whether the EU is a stable and sustainable organisation. Since 2014 the ECB has been pumping money into the EU and, together with the current European Quantitive Easing Programme, started in March 2015 and which is supposed to continue until at least September 2016, 1.1. trillion Euros has been injected into the EU economy.

Worse still, there's the issue of the EU entering into top secret TTIP negotiations with the US, which will give multinationals the authority to sue governments in secret tribunals for "loss of profits" if they dare to, for instance, place restrictions on certain products or services - e.g. bring in plain packaging for cigarettes or to open up public services to privatisation. Perhaps this is why Obama is so eager for us to remain within the EU (though the Stay campaign argue that we would be forced into entering a similar sort of agreement if we were outside the EU - and would have less negotiating "clout").

On the other hand, I fear very much what will happen with regard to environmental, employment, health and safety and consumer regulations and rights if we leave the EU. I don't like most of the people that support the Leave campaign - for the Conservative: Iain Duncan Smith, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, et al, or Kate Hoey for Labour, Marin le Pen, Nigel Farage, etc. I also suspect it is true what Deborah Orr said in the Guardian last month:

"Trump and the Tory Brexiters are cut from the same cloth. They’re anti an establishment that limits and contains them. They want to be at the centre of an establishment in which they are free to do whatever they please."

At the moment I see it as being between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Well that is fantastic and what needs to be done by all. And make an informed decision, based on facts rather than anecdotal stuff and Brexit telling you that 'all we have to do is to negotiate and we will get what we want... (not). Bravo.

As said, I never mind anyone disagreeing with me, as long as it is well thought out and informed.

Same here, Jalima - but we just seem to be being 'lectured at' as though it's obviously a given that we should stay in! Some of us remain unconvinced, and I think I'll be searching a bit further afield than Gransnet for unbiased opinions.

Let me be clear - I am not a Brexiter! Just seeking answers to questions.

I agree, granjura. Trade agreements take years to conclude and it's ludicrous to think the UK can establish agreements with random countries all over the world. Has anybody even asked them if they'd like to trade with us if we were 'free' from the EU? I might take BREXITers more seriously, if they came up with some realistic plans, but it seems to be all 'Oh! It will be fine!" Well, maybe (just maybe), but why take the risk?

Exactly, and the answer is a firm 'NO' - either you do want to have agreements, and these are the terms, or you don't... Call it blackmail if you wish- but I'd call it an agreement where the smaller partner generally has to accept the conditions of the bigger 'club'. Quite normal in real life.

Don't want to digres here- but Switzerland finds itself in a bit of a pickle. Due to the system of direct Democracy, a vote demanding control of immigration from Europe passed with a tiny minority a couple of years back- putting the country in direct conflict with its already agreed agreements. Those who voted for limiting the free movement of people within Europe and Switzerland kept saying 'there will be no problem- all the GVT has to do is to re-negociate'. Well 2 years later, the answer is still a firm NO- and the Swiss GVT finds itself in an impossible impasse.

Jobs are being lost, massive research funding and project at risk, Erasmus programme and other exchanges already at risk or suspended. No idea how this will end- as the GVT has to implement the vote- but are not able to negotiate- and the consequences are dire. The UK situation is totally different- but I am sick and tired of Brexiters saying 'ah well. all you have to do is re-negotiate' .... easy said.... but probably not easily done- at all. And Switzerland is seen as an ally- and not as a 'traitor' as the UK would be seen by rest of Europe, I'm afraid.

Switzerland and Norway only got special trade and other agreement with the EU BY ACCEPTING THE FREE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE - THIS IS NOT NEGOTIABLE (Switzerland has been trying for years... but computer definitely says NO).
there is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY the French, Germans, and all the others would agree to have free movement within Europe- apart from the UK- I CAN ASSURE YOU, NO WAY.
It's OK, I can hear you!

But you were talking about Switzerland and Norway - who are not in the EU - only getting trade and other agreements by accepting EU stipulations re the free movement of people and that Switzerland has been trying for years, presumably to not to have to accept these conditions.
In other words, "we will not trade with you unless you have these conditions re free movement of people imposed on you" and that Switzerland has been trying for years, presumably to not to have to accept these conditions.

I agree with you, gracesgran. My impression is that Obama was 'giving it straight'. In any case, being offended is no reason to make a decision. People need to get over the offence and consider whether he's right. Personally, I think he is.

When I was looking for details of this, I discovered that Boris has insulted Obama before and made reference to his ethnic background, so I suppose it's no surprise that he's reacted how he has. Frankly, I think he's pathetic and I hope to goodness he's never given a more senior role in government, because he's an embarrassment.

I agree granjura I think it really is stretching things to say it was a threat. As Mamie says, he was just pointing out the fact that different decisions have different consequences; it would be foolish to think that either decision did not have its positives and negatives. I wonder if those who know they want out think saying this will attract the undecideds or are just shouting to feel brave?

Ana- apologies, didn't mind to shout. It is however exasperating to hear 'Brexiters' repeat again and again 'ah well, all we need to do is negotiate new agreeements' as if it was so so simple! It won't be- it could take years and years, and possibly never. Jobs, trade and financial services will go elsewhere, the £ will slump to all time low (which will affect us personally massively- we have already lost 40% since we moved here 7 years ago- totally aware that THIS is no concern to you at all though)- and immigration will probably be worse as the rest of Europe will facilitate travel to UK to get rid.

petra, I see your comment about the leaked document comes directly from the Daily Mail, which doesn't give a source or any further details. The same wording is doing the rounds of a number of anti-immigration sites, so it's come from a single source.

I'm a bit cynical about this, because I've read that the opposite is true, so I'm going to find some original statistics rather than second hand reporting. For example, the amount of in work benefits which can be claimed through tax credits has changed quite dramatically. I also have a feeling that rules for EU nationals have changed. The Living Wage will also have had an effect.

It probably is true that we have highly educated and skilled Eastern Europeans doing low skilled jobs either to earn money, so they can go back home or until they can speak English well enough to get a more skilled job. However, they are doing work which British people wouldn't do. I suspect this varies from one area to another. My area is quite wealthy and there's money for people to pay for services. However, housing is expensive and there's a shortage of low-skilled workers. I know many Eastern Europeans are house sharing to keep rent costs down. Any unemployed from any area of the UK could do the same (and some do), but they'd have to be prepared to live in cramped conditions.

Anyway, enough of anecdotes. Off to find some facts.

All right, granjura, I know you feel strongly about this matter but there's no need to shout...

I think all Obama was pointing out is that actions have consequences. Isn't that what we teach children? How on earth is that perceived as a threat or "blackmail"?

Did hear what he said as a threat at all- just calling a spade a spade- and saying best that you are aware of it - this in response to the Brexiter who keep saying 'ah well, we will just have different trade, etc, agreements' as if it was as simple as that.

Jalima, about Switzerland and Norway- blackmail from whom? It is not blackmail, but again, a plain fact- the free movement of people is an absolute basic principle for the EU- there is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY the French, Germans, and all the others would agree to have free movement within Europe- apart from the UK- I CAN ASSURE YOU, NO WAY. This would also affect movements between Universities, research projects, Erasmus programmes for student exchanges, and so much more.

I thought Barak Obama spoke very reasonably and did the same in the interview he gave to Huw Edwards.
To have a free trade agreement with the EU will naturally have some conditions attached and paying fees to the EU budget and accepting free movement of people is just that - not blackmail.

In? Out? I haven't a clue as both arguments are persuasive. Whether they are honest and true representations of the benefits of staying in or leaving only time will tell. In the meantime, I am considering not voting at all which goes very much against the grain as I always vote. However, I did not vote for this referendum. I did not want it and I am annoyed that it is taking place at all. Still I will continue to listen to the information available, including reading this thread, and hope that on the day I can make a decision and do my civic duty at the polling station.

Whitewave:" What I don't get at this point is that Germany, whose economy was more stable even than the USA, could have presumably become once again a world power, but instead chose to shackle itself to Europe."

I'm going to do some research on this. However, I think the simple answer is that Germany saw itself as stronger within Europe. Its industry was certainly needed to get the European wheels turning again. The US encouraged integration, because it needed a stable market in which to sell its own exports.

I think Germany had had enough of aspiring to territorial world power, although West Germany didn't accept the new border with Poland (the Oder Neisse line) until 1970 and it wasn't formally ratified until reunification. Germany lost permanently a very important industrial base in Silesia, although the Saarland was returned in the mid 1950s. I'm not sure how long it took to get into the top producer countries, but it wasn't long, so Germany did actually become a world power - as a result of closer integration with other European countries.

Have you been following the FutureLearn course on the EU? There's a whole unit on Germany and I'm going to look up some of the links and read them more carefully.

I honestly didn't hear a threat. What was he threatening?

I think Obama is a lovely man. A totally objective remark you understand!

No it's called defending your interests jalima and as the EU has bigger economic clout as a union it will do just that.

Surely on such massive decisions, one just has to engage brain over red rags to bulls or guts- as grown-ups
Yes, I agree granjura, however, many of the population may feel quite indignant at the way he put it. It could have been put so much more cleverly and persuasively instead of coming over as a kind of threat.