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NHS winter crisis looms

(439 Posts)
JessM Fri 09-Dec-16 19:46:17

The NHS is struggling and winter is setting in.
Jeremy Hunt is asking for "efficiency savings" - in other words he is making cuts when demand is rising steeply as a result of our aging population. This means that every year the NHS needs a lot more money, to just maintain their service.
Over the last 6 years Trusts have been heavily pressured by Jeremy Hunt to cut beds - "increase bed occupancy" - to become "more efficient". So there are fewer beds in the system to cope with the inevitable rise in winter admissions.
Social care budgets have been heavily cut in England so there is less of a safety net for frail people living at home - so more likely to end up in hospital.
Noro virus outbreaks in hospitals are already up on the last few years - and that tends to close whole wards.
Today I read that 7% that is one in 14 English people are waiting for non-routine operations. Suspect there aren't going to be many beds available for those on the lists. Longest waiting list for 9 years
www.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/08/one-in-14-people-waiting-operations-demand-nhs-soars
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-38263593
And is this a taste of things to come - flu closing school in Manchester? if there is a flu epidemic things are going to get really nasty. Best advice is, if you haven't had a flu jab yet, get one. They're about a tenner in a pharmacy near you, if you're not entitled to a free one!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-38241513

durhamjen Sat 07-Jan-17 15:36:56

Daphne, even if the Conservatives will walk an election, the people who are supposed to vote for them will need the NHS, won't they?
It's not just Labour supporters who are losing out.

Last week there was an article about Durham A&E. It is going to double in size, because it is treating twice as many people as it was built for. It opened in 2001!

Ana Sat 07-Jan-17 15:38:59

I saw the front pages of a few of the daily papers in Tesco, daphnedill. Not online. Just saying, it wasn't the DM.

daphnedill Sat 07-Jan-17 15:40:51

The NHS has no chance at all and how I think about it has no relevance, because I'm one person and Labour has no chance in a million years of winning in my constituency. I'm trying to look at the situation objectively, as I can, because I don't matter. Corbyn is doing an abysmal job at getting his message across to the majority of voters. It really doesn't matter how 'right' he is, Labour needs to be in government to do anything.

PS. I've written to my MP as part of a group trying to utilise an almost empty community hospital by reinstating mental health services, rehabilitation wards and community services. It's been a minefield, because there is no single authority in charge. The local council isn't interested and our MP sends polite responses, but does nothing. We carry on hurting our heads against brick walls, but the local press is now onside.

All Essex hospitals have been on 'black alert' at some stage over the last few weeks, but nothing will be done unless there are votes involved and a pending election. That's the reality.

daphnedill Sat 07-Jan-17 15:42:34

Fair enough, Ana. I just noticed it when I was buying a bottle of milk. I obviously made a mistake about which paper it was. I apologise for defaming the DM.

rosesarered Sat 07-Jan-17 15:46:04

djen I hope that I don't need a hospital either, and I am kind enough to hope that you won't need one either, because they are overcome with demand.

daphnedill Sat 07-Jan-17 15:46:37

dj, Labour can't remain intransigent and expect voters to come to them. They need to wake up to the realities of politics and start to woo voters. They really aren't. They can scream from the rooftops about the NHS (and I don't think many people would disagree that it's going downhill), but they don't have an alternative strategy and allow others to drive the agenda by claiming that it's bad management, wasting resources, etc.

Ana Sat 07-Jan-17 15:47:23

Well, it gets enough stick on GN without false news being peddled about it! grin

Anniebach Sat 07-Jan-17 15:47:33

If there are not too many people why is Durham A&E doubling in size?

durhamjen Sat 07-Jan-17 15:49:43

That's what I mean, daphne.
You say the local press is onside.

It's the same with a hospital near here.
Shotley Bridge is the one where Simon Stevens started and he says it will not be closed, but they have closed down the only ward there. However, our MP is involved and the local papers.
In Northumberland, they have closed hospital A&Es and opened up a new all dancing one at Cramlington. Very nice, but it's too small already, people on trolleys in corridors.
Northumberland is being used as a trial for all the new systems they are trying out. They don't work.
Newspapers involved, MPs involved. A shame that the Tories took Berwick, a big area, which used to be Libdem.

STPs are trying to make the NHS a local issue, allowing the minister to get away with saying it's not his fault.
We need to argue locally and nationally.

durhamjen Sat 07-Jan-17 15:52:06

Every PMQs Corbyn has been asking questions about the NHS and social care.
Am I the only one who has noticed?

Anniebach Sat 07-Jan-17 15:53:58

Probably Jen.

Corbyn has issued the following - I am demanding the PM attends the house on Monday

Anya Sat 07-Jan-17 15:55:06

DJ I hate to burst your bubble, and I know you are a political animal and genuinely care, but the average Brit doesn't watch PMQT.

Honest.

durhamjen Sat 07-Jan-17 15:58:16

Corbyn is demanding that May come to the commons on Monday to discuss the crisis. Anyone on Twitter must have noticed that.

Are you all demanding that an emergency debate on the NHS takes place from your MPs?

durhamjen Sat 07-Jan-17 16:00:12

X posts, Annie.
So you noticed what he had written on Twitter.
Maybe more people will notice that than watch PMQs.
In which case, posting on Twitter makes sense.

durhamjen Sat 07-Jan-17 16:01:05

Anya, I didn't ask the average Brit. I asked people on GN.

Anya Sat 07-Jan-17 16:03:01

We're pretty average I think DJ - don't you?

daphnedill Sat 07-Jan-17 16:07:22

Yes, I did notice it on Twitter, because I looked for it after reading that he's going that he's going to change his tactics in the New Year. I don't know how many other people would have sought out the tweet. I missed Jon Ashworth's interview and it's not on iplayer yet. However, I read a summary of the interview and, apparently, Ashworth said that Labour still doesn't have any plans how they would fund improvements until before an election is called. They need to do better than that.

daphnedill Sat 07-Jan-17 16:10:16

Sorry to disagree slightly, Anya. I would have thought that many of us are more likely to watch PMQT, because many of us don't work. I doubt very much whether the 'average' working Brit with children records PMQT and sits down to watch it after the children are in bed.

Jalima Sat 07-Jan-17 16:16:52

There are not too many people, there is too little money.
There is also a lot of inefficiency.

However - the downgrading or closing of A&E units is disturbing.
The 'ordinary people' are beginning to revolt:
www.burtonmail.co.uk/8203-truly-phenomenal-response-to-burton-a-e-petition-as-signatures-hit-30-000-mark/story-30035976-detail/story.html

But - that will probably just mean that another A&E in the County may be downgraded.
Stafford A&E has been a disaster for more years than I can remember and is closed at night and closed altogether to children. The whole hospital was a dangerous place to be under the last Labour administration too. Stoke covers a huge area and it is some distance from Burton to Stoke - various routes all nearly an hour.
How far are people supposed to travel to access emergency services?

Jalima Sat 07-Jan-17 16:20:42

Stafford A&E covers the town which has a population of around 70,000 plus surrounding districts - and is shut at night.

Anniebach Sat 07-Jan-17 16:22:15

Jen, no I didn't read on Twitter, it was on rolling news , I don't do Twitter but I do get mails from several Labour MP's with links, I just read their comments

daphnedill Sat 07-Jan-17 16:26:05

I was obviously wrong about the DM, but here's the BBC's take:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-38538637

The headline is:

NHS rejects claims of 'humanitarian crisis' in England's hospitals

The subsequent article doesn't really support that claim. However, it's known that many readers don't read beyond headlines, so they will read that headline, see that it confirms their belief and possibly not read any more, satisfied that they're right to believe what they do. They don't have the time to check sources or evaluate whether the headline is likely to be true.

So much for the BBC being 'leftie'! hmm

Jalima Sat 07-Jan-17 16:26:41

If there are not too many people why is Durham A&E doubling in size?
Is it because they are regionalising the A&E departments and that is going to be the main one for the area?
I do realise that better treatment could be available at larger centres with more specialists available and a wider range of equipment etc but having to travel 50+ miles at night with a sick child in an emergency or a family member with a potential stroke or heart attack is a frightening prospect.
And I do realise that it is very expensive to keep operating theatres open 24/7 in case of emergencies which may not occur.

But surely a district with about 100,000 people warrants a fully functioning, fully equipped A&E open 24 hours a day?

durhamjen Sat 07-Jan-17 16:30:39

Daphne, there's a link to Ashworth's comments on Corbyn's Twitterfeed.

The thing is, that we all get to see things via a variety of different methods/outputs. We can watch what we want when we want.
Some people care about what is happening to the NHS now, not who did what in the past.
Some people couldn't care less because it doesn't affect them or their families.

“The NHS will last as long as there are folk left with faith to fight for it”

Aneurin Bevan.

Jalima Sat 07-Jan-17 16:31:30

We do need to evaluate why, though.
Is it because of failures at each end - ie GP surgeries working on an office-style timetable and the out-of-hours service being totally inadequate so people go to A&E as a first option?

Then at the other end of the spectrum there are insufficient resources so that people can be discharged and they become so-called 'bedblockers.

A&E departments are caught in the middle.

Accident and Emergency - not a sore throat or a cut finger that someone has had since Thursday and it is now Saturday.
Not a rehab clinic for drunks who are out of their minds at the weekend.
Has anyone ever spent Saturday night (or Christmas Day) in an A&E department as either staff or patient? It is enlightening.