Gransnet forums

News & politics

The cost of Brexit for us; the ordinary people

(1001 Posts)
MaizieD Mon 12-Dec-16 08:29:59

There have been headlines over the weekend, in response to the recent polling, on the lines of "Nobody voted for Brexit in order to become poorer" (though they were good at dsmissing warnings that they would as 'scaremongering') Richard Murphy takes us through 10 reasons why he thinks it is inevitable. If anyone has an authoritative source to counter his points I'd be happy to see it.

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/12/11/ten-reasons-why-brexit-is-bound-to-be-costly-for-ordinary-people/

durhamjen Wed 21-Dec-16 10:36:10

I'm a remainer, but I'm not harping on about how unfair it is.
I am quite enjoying the mess the government is getting into over it, with Nanny May not knowing what she is doing.
Unfortunately, you will not know what a mess you've left for your grandchildren. Never mind. I doubt they will thank you for it.

daphnedill Wed 21-Dec-16 10:38:59

I have never harped on about unfairness. I shall never support Brexit, because I truly believe it's daft. There is no easy happy ending. You have absolutely no idea how it will work out, any more than anybody else has, so please don't tell me that it will work out. Quite frankly, you seem to be burying your head in the sand.

durhamjen Wed 21-Dec-16 11:15:49

Whoops! There is no plan after all.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/21/deloitte-apologises-for-brexit-memo-in-effort-to-make-peace-with-no-10

MaizieD Wed 21-Dec-16 13:12:03

I don't recall harping on about 'unfairness'. I'm just harping on about what an economic disaster it's going to be.

rosesarered Wed 21-Dec-16 13:26:29

Rather you mean Maizie 'what you THINK it will mean' not that 'it's going to be'.
It may take a long time to sort things out to our advantage, nobody should expect a fast solution, but that doesn't mean it will be an economic disaster.
There are going to be EU countries having elections, that could also affect things.
The ideal position is not heads in sand OR becoming doom sayers.

Ana Wed 21-Dec-16 13:33:34

A lot of remainers seemed to consider the result of the referendum to be 'unfair' as the leave side won by such a small margin.

There was plenty of speculation on here about which way those that didn't bother voting would have decided...(the concensus being, of course, that they'd all have voted to remain!)

rosesarered Wed 21-Dec-16 13:40:50

Haha! Yes, I remember all those percentages being totted up, and the concensus being (on here) that those who didn't vote would have voted to Remain ( if they had been arsed) plus those who had changed their minds.....etc.

MaizieD Wed 21-Dec-16 14:08:16

The ideal position is not heads in sand

I agree Roses. Which is why I didn't vote Leave.

rosesarered Wed 21-Dec-16 14:09:36

Or doom sayers!

rosesarered Wed 21-Dec-16 14:10:52

You forgot that bit Maizie tchgrin

paddyann Wed 21-Dec-16 14:21:09

sorry but I dont understand how walking away from 500 million potential customers can be a good thing,There are NO countries lining up to replace the EU with orders ,in fact any who have wares to sell will likely as not target the same 500million we decided we dont want But hey what would I know ,my business is only small although I have run it successfully for 40 years .

MaizieD Wed 21-Dec-16 14:24:24

Ignoring the 'doomsayers' is part of the ostrich act, roses

JessM Wed 21-Dec-16 14:27:18

Well if you want to get into unfairness ana what about the bare-faced deliberate lie by the Leave campaign about more money for the NHS.
Along with untrue allegations that Turkey was about to join the EU and similar tales. But no mention at all of the fact that we are likely to be charged a hefty number of billion for the privilege of departing.

daphnedill Wed 21-Dec-16 14:36:20

That hefty bill is quite interesting, because Ms May says she's not going to pay it. Apparently, it will be one of the first items on the agenda, so if it's not going to be paid, the negotiations might not go any further. That means that after the two years expires, we won't have negotiated anything at all, so will get thrown out of the ship without even a lifebelt or even a leaky lifeboat.

Welshwife Wed 21-Dec-16 15:03:46

The German Govt have apparently decided that they will not do any deals such as allow theUK Banking industry access to Europe in return for German cars getting access to UK. I would think that will harm UK more than Germany.
Sad thing is that by the time the really negative side of leaving comes to light and can no longer be brushed aside as scaremongering, it will be too late to back track and change our minds.
Whatever the deal for leaving, the UK will still need to pay the monies already agreed and signed for to pay the pensions and salaries of UK personnel in Brussels. They will need to do that as they will not want their integrity doubted with other countries they wish to trade with.
I hope the leavers have a plan B (and C) in case plan A fails to work getting them all this new trade. Seems to me so far all UK is doing is allowing other countries to 'invest' in UK so they can take the profits out - the latest one being financing the building of the flat pack housing - gone to China. Why did the UK Govt not finance this?

daphnedill Wed 21-Dec-16 15:18:26

Not only Brussels. The European Medicines Agency is based in London and employs over 800 staff, who will be made redundant.

MaizieD Wed 21-Dec-16 15:18:30

I don't know about 'head in the sand'; I certainly have my head in my hands sad

WTF does this government think it's doing?

MaizieD Wed 21-Dec-16 15:19:17

But it'll all be fine when we reach Shangri La.

Ana Wed 21-Dec-16 15:25:58

As I'm sure you've said before, MaizieD.

Jess, it surely must have been a very small minority of leave voters who actually believed that any money saved by leaving the EU would actually go directly to the NHS! I seem to remember the phrasing was rather vague anyway.

As for the hefty fee for the privilege of leaving, how long has that been known about? Before the referendum? I doubt it...

daphnedill Wed 21-Dec-16 15:34:14

How could it not have been known about? Sorry, but the government must have known that it would have employee obligations. I believe it was also quite clear that any country wishing to leave would bear the brunt of the costs of negotiations. I'm sure I remember that professor from Liverpool Uni mentioning something about them, but - hey! - he's only an expert in EU law.

I don't think it was a small number of voters who believed the NHS propaganda. Obviously I don't know the figure, but I watched a number of interviews with people who most certainly did believe it. They're not likely to admit that now, because it would make them look like idiots. There were also quite a number who expressed fears about Turkey joining the EU and a European army, neither of which was true.

MaizieD Wed 21-Dec-16 15:39:24

As I'm sure you've said before, MaizieD.

As Leavers have been saying for months that everything will be fine I don't see why I can't join in.

Ana Wed 21-Dec-16 15:42:53

There were probably quite a number of remainers who believed that the UK would descend into immediate recession if we voted to leave the EU, as predicted by some doom-mongering 'experts'. (and George Osborne)

MaizieD Wed 21-Dec-16 16:05:28

Forgotten that Cameron promised to invoke article50 immediately after the vote? That would have caused a lot of problems. As it is we're slowly going into recession instead of it happening immediately. But we had to spend £60billion to prop up the pound.

Leaving hasn't happened yet but all the signs are bad.

rosesarered Wed 21-Dec-16 21:00:13

Corporal Frazer would have said (if here now) 'we're doomed, we're all doomed I say'
tchgrin
And Captain Mainwaring would say ' have some backbone man!'

Cunco Wed 21-Dec-16 22:37:36

Maisie: I am not sure where you get your £60bn to prop up the Pound. We have a floating exchange rate so we don't spend billions propping up the Pound. We let it find it's own level.

The OBR estimated that £60 bn of extra Government spending would be needed to compensate for the impact of Brexit on growth. Even so, and its estimates were disputed, it's estimates still showed growth.

Paddyann: I don't think we are walking away from the European market. We may end up dealing on worse terms because of tariffs but a lower Pound should help. I agree that there are no unchartered markets elsewhere and, as you will know, exporting is tough; but the European market will still be there and trade will still happen between Europe and UK.

Personally, I understand and share some concerns about the economy but I am at a loss to understand why anyone would enjoy the prospect of lower growth, either here or in the EU. I disagree that the omens for growth are all bad in the UK; or that they are rosy in the EU.

I know many here think the stock market is a casino and therefore should be ignored. It is a little odd, though, that UK markets (not just FTSE 100] have been resilient if we are headed over a cliff.

This discussion thread has reached a 1000 message limit, and so cannot accept new messages.
Start a new discussion