The cost of Brexit for us; the ordinary people

I remember 'attack attack attack' (actually, more 'whinge whinge whinge') from the 40+ years before the referendum, but it wasn't from those who wanted to remain.

dd yes I think you are right, I certainly can't see how a hard Brexit will work, and in fact I think that the 3 Brexiters are beginning to test a softer Brexit, by hinting at a Customs Union, the possibility of staying in the single market etc.

A recession could happen anyway; the economy is cyclical.

The way people have been spending on credit before Christmas could be a trigger point if that continues, but of course people will blame Brexit when other factors may be involved also.

We just have to wait and see which is not a good policy - pro-active is better than reactive imo. But we have not been in this situation before.

FACT CHECK

Current net immigration - 335,000 (ONS), of whom 196,000 non-EU citizens and 49,000 British citizens (mainly returning from living abroad).

I remember 'attack, attack, attack', but it was all from the Remain camp after the referendum result was announced GracesGran.

Why would Leave voters have had any reason to complain?

Anyway, you're back now (by popular demand?).

I don't think anyone who knows me has ever accused me of having a black and white views Mair. I like to look at the back, the front and the bit inbetween of everything and anything and then discuss the possibilities with as many people as possible before I come to a conclusion and then I might change my mind. I very much weigh the arguments rather than shout at everyone that they must have the same one as me (who knows what that is after all?) although I don't like others shouting at me or telling me what to think and I might just tell them that

WW
If you were 'bored' you wouldnt be on this thread.

Some of us have not disagreed. However, it would be crass stupidity for any group who can see quite clearly that a 'hard Brexit' would affect them badly, to sit back and say, 'Well, we knew this would cause real problems, but nobody asked us.'

My own personal example is that about a third of all language teachers in the UK are EU nationals. Some have lived here for decades. Even if they are allowed to stay, there will be recruitment problems in the future, if the rules for non-EU citizens aren't changed. Currently, a non-EU teacher has to earn £35,000 for a visa. Most teachers don't earn that much, so there will be a real shortage. Therefore, teaching associations have sensibly lobbied the government.

"Some of us have been saying that for months..."

So have I Ana and so have others. There is a difference between it not being said and it not being heard. It was one of the reasons why I left. No one, including you, was prepared to listen and everything was attack, attack, attack when anyone said there may be alternative answers - just as Mair is now. She seems to see the outcomes as black or black and everyone else is not only wrong but not entitled to a nuanced view and ... I don't think she voted remain

All she can see is either that you agree with her or you want the country flooded with immigrants.

Oh really GG. Dont judge people by your own black and white view.
I simply ask WW to tell us where sh stands on the spctrum.

Does she think immigration running at roughly 600,000 a year (current level) is a 'good thing' or should it be cut. Its really not that difficult to answer if youre an honest person who wants an open discussion.

What about you GG?

Bored!!!!

Yes point taken GGmk2 I was beginning to get a tad board as well.

I wouldn't pander to Mair if I was you Whitewave. All she can see is either that you agree with her or you want the country flooded with immigrants. She is not alone in that position but that doesn't make it right. Time will move on and life will have the answers and they will not be black or white I feel.

Oh, at last someone from the Remain camp agrees that we must 'wait and see' what the outcome is etc.

Some of us have been saying that for months...

I think all those have come to mind at some point Jen but it is quite horrifying seeing them together. Nothing has really happened yet - a bit like the phoney war. We must wait and see what the outcome is of filing article 50 and the seeing our actual position in the negotiations and also everyone catching up with what 'long term economic plan' actually meant.

Hard or soft Brexit could be immaterial.

www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/01/05/this-mornings-reasons-for-thinking-2017-may-be-the-year-recession-returns/

Immigration and the EU

With Brexit everything is now in the melting pot. One of the issues is the single market and its 4 fundamentals. The most vexed to many in the U.K. Is free movement.

So one scenario would be to reject the single market entirely and stop all free movement from the EU. A hard Brexit.

However this undoubtedly not without its problems, especially in this matter of what would become immigration,

To stop immigration entirely would be to put at severe risk staff supplies to hospitals, care homes, hotels, food outlets and farms. I have outlined in a previous post why it has been difficult to fill these jobs. The majority of these jobs are unskilled.

In order to ensure a continual supply of people willing to do these jobs , we will need to set up border controls, works permits, temporary work permits, tariffs etc. at huge cost to the exchequer.

So I am arguing that whether Brexit is hard or soft we will still need a level of immigration..

However, I would also argue that we cannot assume that these economic migrants will still choose to come to the UK as all reciprocal arrangements will almost certainly cease, especially if it is a hard Brexit.

If, however we chose a soft option and accept that we will continue with unfettered access perhaps with a number of conditions attached to it, then the government will not be meeting those Brexiters whose primary concern is immigration. (Of course we know that immigration is larger from outside the EU but I'm not looking at that).

In order to answer these fears, we know from reports recently issued that UKIP supporters - those most likely to reject when asked the question about immigration and integration was introduced in the question their level of objection fell drastically. So if immigrants are actively integrated into British society rather than remain culturally divided many objections are dissipated.
Today we also have a commons committee report suggesting immigration policy should be devolved and I think this may well have some traction.

Now I must go!

Yes I saw that comment, but you refuse to say
if current levels are about right (to you) or need to be reduced.
Youre deliberately being vague

Oops silly typo, that was addressed to WW

"You debate an issue with someone by rebutting their argument - I am setting out my stall - now over to you."

You do enjoy coming out with truisms Mair, but set out your stall you have not.
I will return later! Perhaps by then you will have worked out what you think.

mair as I said I will not be bullied. If you wish this dialogue to continue I suggest you stop your comments now.

mair did you not see my comment that suggest that I feel a certain level of immigration is essential? That is far from saying unlimited immigration.

My arguments then suggest that I feel a certain level of immigration will be essential, however to begin to try to put a figure on that means that I shall need to look at at the very least the other two issues I have outlined, in order to have an informed decision as I possibly can.

So are you now saying you dont know if youre happy about current levels of immigration because youv just not thought about it? LOL
You're very vocal for someone who doesn't even know what she thinks!!

Colourful language mair