English Scots for YES

roses you would have been more than welcome but plans have changed. Some friends want to do a hog roast so that saves me the trouble of organising things.
I've asked them if I can bring along an effigy of Jean Claude Junker to burn [ smile]

Back to topic with these comments:

Simon Wren-Lewis, Professor of economic policy at the Blavatnik School of government at Oxford University and a fellow of Merton College, said that the direction of economic policy at Westminster now made the case for a successful independent Scotland.

“The bottom line is that the case for Scottish independence is now much stronger than it was in 2014.” Professor Simon Wren-Lewis
He admitted that he previously dismissed the argument for independence as “wishful thinking” - but added that the Tory rush towards a Hard Brexit “changes everything” in the economic argument.

Writing his response to the new debate on Scottish independence, Professor Wren-Lewis said: “The bottom line is that the case for Scottish independence is now much stronger than it was in 2014. Then a brighter future outside the UK was patriotic wishful thinking. Now, if they can stay in the Single Market, it is almost a certainty.”

He added: “Brexit changes everything. The economic cost to the UK of leaving the EU could be as high as a reduction of 10 per cent in average incomes by 2030. If Scotland, by becoming independent, can avoid that fate then you have a clear long term economic gain right there. But it is more than that.

“If, Scotland can remain in the Single Market it could be the destination of the foreign investment that once came to the UK as a gateway into the EU. By accepting free movement, it could benefit from the immigration that has so benefited the UK public finances over the last decade. No, that is not what you read in the papers or see on the TV, but I’m talking about the real world, not the political fantasy that seems so dominant today.”

The SNP will always find some favourable quotation. They expend huge resources on promoting separatism rather than concentrating on the things that matter - schools, hospitals, the police, the economy.

Professor John McLaren, a very distinguished Scottish economist, said last weeks that " an independent Scotland 'would face tax hikes and spending cuts to fill gap worth £1,700 per person.

'Per person' means for every man, woman and child, so £6,800 for the average family of four!

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/15/independent-scotland-would-face-tax-hikes-spending-cuts-fill/

The Scottish National PARTY has a full range of policies on every topic imaginable, debated and voted on by members, at Party Conferences and National Council. All of the current policies reflect a left of centre stance and all are influenced by the desire to do what is best for the people in Scotland in the current situation while promoting Independence, ie control of their own finances, laws, alliances, etc as the route to good governance.

The SNP does direct a huge proportion of its financial resources and the time and energy of the activists to the aim of Independence, which is only reasonable as their income from members subs, fundraising and donations is given precisely for that purpose. However, you will often find SNP members campaigning for and supporting domestic or local issues. People forget that the SNP is not the only party or group campaigning for independence. Besides the Greens and SSP and Rise, there are hundreds of YES groups both local and national e.g. WFI, RIC, Business for Scotland, Common Weal, to name a few. These groups are all self funding - not subsidised by the SNP or any other big organisation.

As to the Scottish Government, where the SNP does not have a clear majority, all the bread and butter issues (commonly called 'the day job') are debated/amended/voted on in chamber, discussed in Committee. Every issue (including the budget) requires a measure of cross party support. The MSM could lead you to believe that both the SP and the SNP at conference spend all their time on Constitutional issues because that appears to be all they are interested in reporting. This is far from the truth and does a disservice to the hard working MSPs from all parties who spend their time dealing with their constituent's problems, contributing to debate and management of Public Services, etc and holding the SG to account. Following party conferences and the Scottish Government live on-line it soon becomes obvious that time spent on constitutional issues is very limited compared to the time devoted to the 'Day-Job.

Off topic again

MaizieD I think half the Irish were at Cheltenham Festival last week, couldn't move for miles around!! (oh, the Irish that rosesarered mentioned probably, not the Northern Irish that you are talking about!)
And it was not so much of a wake as a celebration (19 winners out of 28)

but then again, re-reading your post properly and how unhappy the Northern Irish are feeling, perhaps a wake would be more in order for 56% of them.

Do you live there MaizieD? Do you think there will be more unrest again, a worrying prospect if so.

“If, Scotland can remain in the Single Market it could be the destination of the foreign investment that once came to the UK as a gateway into the EU. By accepting free movement, it could benefit from the immigration that has so benefited the UK public finances over the last decade. No, that is not what you read in the papers or see on the TV, but I’m talking about the real world, not the political fantasy that seems so dominant today.”
With due deference to an esteemed academic, I must say that there are a lot of "ifs" in his contention. There is absolutely no guarantee - not even an iota of hint - that the EU would grant an independent Scotland membership of the EU at all. I think it is also worth remembering that over 1 million Scots voted to Leave the EU (I was not one of them!) and that a fair proportion of them were SNP supporters (about 1 in 3 SNP voters voted Leave). When it comes to the free movement of people I think it is naive to assume that this would be any more welcome by ordinary people in Scotland than elsewhere. I have spoken to SNP voters who want an independent Scotland to curb immigration, not increase it. Finally, if Scotland has free movement and the rest of the UK does not, we will become a "back door" for illegal entry to the south and this would be devastating to the Scottish Borders as England takes measures to halt this.
On financial sector investment, an Independent Scotland would need a globally respected Central Bank and unless we adopt the Euro I cannot see how this would happen. The rhetoric of "it's our bank as much as England's" is childish and factually wrong. To expect to use the pound and have the Bank of England as our Central Bank would be to ask the population of a (by then) foreign nation to underwrite Scotland and any future debt Scotland might incur. I don't think anyone in England would vote for that. Do you?

There are already two Scottish banks which print their own money.

Granny23 I'm wondering why the SNP wants a second referendum before Brexit - would it not be better to wait until it actually happens and Scotland finds itself out of the EU?

I'd have thought once the reality hits home and the UK is out, the Scots would then be more likely to vote Yes to independence.

I don't know the statistics/recent polling but does the wish to stay in the EU outweigh the results of the last Scottish independence vote?

Pollaidh no more 'ifs' than there are in the Brexit scenario

'Riverwalk' The logic behind the late 2018/early 2019 date for the proposed referendum is that by then the terms of Brexit will have become clear, but crucially, we will still be in the EU. Should Scotland achieve Independence from the UK at that point we will still be IN the EU and RUK will leave but Scotland will remain under the current terms - no need to join a queue, meet criteria or join the Euro. Scotland would be allocated the seat at the top table vacated by the UK. This path has been thoroughly checked and confirmed by the EU's lawyers.

Granny 23 tells us that "People forget that the SNP is not the only party or group campaigning for independence. Besides the Greens and SSP and Rise, there are hundreds of YES groups both local and national e.g. WFI, RIC, Business for Scotland, Common Weal, to name a few. These groups are all self funding - not subsidised by the SNP or any other big organisation."

The important fact she doesn't mention about funding of the separatist campaign is that the SNP has been bank rolled since 2011 by a couple who won £161,000,000!!! in the Eurolottery. Colin and Chris Weir donated 79% of the funds for the YES campaign before the 2014 referendum. They have given millions to the SNP as they can clearly afford to do. It is not illegal but clearly distorts the balance of political opinion pushed out to Scottish voters.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/11/euromillions-lottery-winners-colin-chris-weir-donate-bulk-yes-scotland-pro-independence-campaign

The SNP is not alone in this - the Consevative Party received
£5,000,000.00 on 11/06/2001 from Sir Paul Getty
£2,990,582.20 on 27/11/2007 from Lord Irvine Laidlaw
£2,450,000.00 on 03/05/2001 from Mr John S Wheeler
£2,110,767.13 on 31/03/2006 from International Motors Ltd
(from the Electoral Commission, in order of value, plus many more lesser donations, to a total value of £343,526,717.63)

The Labour Party received a total of £306,313,072.87 of which
£3,459,340.00 on 31/03/2015 from Unite the Union
£2,511,808.00 on 31/07/2008 from Lord David Sainsbury
£2,500,000.00 on 01/03/2003 from Lord Sainsbury of Turville
£2,150,000.00 on 16/06/2016 from Lord David Sainsbury
£2,000,000.00 on 13/07/2005 from Lakshminiwas Mittal (who he?)
£2,000,000.00 on 10/03/2005 from Lord David Sainsbury of Turville
£2,000,000.00 on 10/09/2007 from Lord David Sainsbury
£2,000,000.00 on 22/01/2007 from Lakshmi Mittal
£2,000,000.00 on 13/01/2002 from Lord Sainsbury
£1,723,892.79 on 12/03/2014 from Unite the Union
£1,647,500.00 on 23/01/2013 from Mr John Mills
and so on.

Lakshmi Mittal is a steel magnate and one of the richest people in the world. You obviously don't mix in the right circles *Elegran.

Obviously!

The Scottish Banks issue notes under authorisation of the Bank of England www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotes/Pages/about/scottish_northernireland.aspx
They are not in themselves Central Banks. For the UK this is the Bank of England. www.bankofengland.co.uk/what/Pages/default.aspx
To have a viable economy (exchange rates, trade, borrowing), a country must have a globally recognised Central Bank.

I don't see how the number of "ifs" is a factor, Granny23. Even if there were only one "if", ie an unknown factor, if that unknown was serious enough then it would be more significant than any number of minor unknowns. I think it is mistaken to talk about "a deal" in the context of Brexit negotiations. The terms of separation have to be agreed by all 27 countries. Therefore what we require before we can be certain of the choices before us, is a fully ratified agreement. Now, even when (if) such an agreement is reached, there is still absolutely no certainty over the terms that might become available to an Independent Scotland.
I voted to Remain and deeply regret the outcome of the EU referendum. However, it by no means follows that the case for Scottish dissolution from the UK is therefore somehow proved. Far from it. Furthermore, there are those who voted Yes in 2014 who voted Leave in 2016 - how are the SNP going to retain them whilst at the same time satisfying their own Remainers?

I thought it was a requirement of all new members of the EU that they adopt the Euro and join the Euro area?
I do not see how Scotland can 'remain' in the EU when it will be an entirely different country from the UK.

The Bank of England should certainly not be underwriting the economy of an independent country.

Jalima, like you I understand that any country joining the EU after 1999 are obliged to use the euro. Scotland went into the EU as part of the UK not as an individual country. On independence Scotland will become an independent country and have to join the EU in this capacity. If the decide to remain part of the UK they will also come out of the EU. So either way they will leave the EU, and either join individually, or stay in out within the UK. As a 'foreign' country they won't be able to use the Bank of England as the bank of last resort, and without their own, which they haven't got, they will be unable to trade, borrow or financially function properly. So until the join the EU in ? time and use the euro, what on earth will they use for money?!

You are missing the point (deliberately?) again Varian. The Weirs donated their cash to the cross party & none YES Campaign not to the SNP. Their 2 or 3 million pales into insignificance when compared with the donors quoted by Elegran. Their donations had no strings attached, were not given to influence policies or directly benefit themselves. Rather, they were happy to give a chunk of their new found wealth to a cause that was dear to their hearts. They made similar donations to a range of other, mainly local charities. I was Well Jell as I would have loved to be able to do that but was only able to contribute modestly within our tight budget.

The fact remains that the YES campaign was mainly funded from the pockets of supporters and activists paying highly inflated prices for official YES merchandise and rattling cans to cover the cost of hall hire/speakers expenses for public meetings and so on.

Are you saying that it is not true that the Weirs donated 79% of the funding of the Leave campaign? or that they have also donated millions to the SNP? I am puzzled. The Guardian is usually reliable and this has also been widely reported elsewhere.

theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/11/euromillions-lottery-winners-colin-chris-weir-donate-bulk-yes-scotland-pro-independence-campaign

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/20/jim-dowson-back-scottish-independence-patriotic-news-agency-far-right
It seems that this chap is ready to put money into the YES campaign this time around.
"A far-right millionaire with Ulster loyalist connections plans to use his international social media network, which backed Donald Trump, to support Scottish independence. Jim Dowson, a former financial backer of the British National party and former member of Britain First, confirmed on Monday that he will be deploying his “Patriotic News Agency” and other networks with their bases in Hungary and Serbia to promote Scottish separatism."
That's the trouble with these awful binary issues: people take sides and the head bangers (on both sides) move in with a vengeance. The whole affair in 2014 started to look like a cross between a pop festival and a fervent religious movement. Referenda are not subject to the same laws governing the amounts parties can spend (yes I know the Tories have misbehaved in the last GE and should be ashamed of themselves - but it's very small beer compared to the millions involved here). I have said elsewhere, referenda are no way to make decisions.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/11/euromillions-lottery-winners-colin-chris-weir-donate-bulk-yes-scotland-pro-independence-campaign

Can anyone please remind me how I reference another poster? For example how do I get Granny23 in bold? I used to be able to !
I am genuinely interested in a courteous and sensible debate on this topic and this is a more thoughtful platform than Facebook!

varian I searched out figures for my previous post, but I shall leave you to find the Scottish referendum facts here. Scottish referendum campaign funding