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Snap Election

(65 Posts)
Fitzy54 Mon 20-Mar-17 07:11:13

Theresa May is being put under pressure by some in her party to call a snap election. Their motive is to get a bigger Tory majority and a clear mandate to negotiate Brexit on their terms. But the other parties would then also have the opportunity to put their case for a softer Brexit. It would also be an opportunity for the Scots to show their support or otherwise for a new independence vote. Should we have an early general election?

Riverwalk Mon 20-Mar-17 07:37:30

The Fixed-term Parliament Act would make it very hard for TM to call a snap election.

I for one couldn't face another election!

Iam64 Mon 20-Mar-17 07:55:12

Things have changed so much since the last election, particularly with the result of the referendum that I can see the appeal to many Tories of an early general election. It seems inevitable it would lead to a greater majority for Theresa May which seems hard to believe given the continued attacks on public services and the nhs.

daphnedill Mon 20-Mar-17 08:07:02

I'm not exactly sure of the procedure or the law, but I think an election can be forced if the HoC wins a vote of no confidence. I think there has to be a two thirds majority.

I suspect some Conservative backbenchers would be happy to vote for a resolution of no confidence. Labour would be nuts to vote for it, but who knows? They might find themselves manoeuvred into agreeing. Diane Abbott seems to think Labour would win! hmm

Fitzy54 Mon 20-Mar-17 08:08:55

Well, Iam, I voted Tory last time but am in no way wedded to that party. I would have something of a personal dilemma. I think Brexit, at least a hard Brexit, will deeply damaging and would love another democratic opportunity to reverse the referendum. However In my view a Corbyn govt. would be an economic disaster. I would worry that a LibDem vote would be wasted or might result in a that party propping up a Corbyn govt. I would vote for them if they stood on a platform of supporting the biggest party on an issue by issue basis with stated caveats, including no support for hard Brexit. I can see many in the centre who have deserted labour or who who voted Tory but don't like hard Brexit going the same way.

Fitzy54 Mon 20-Mar-17 08:12:05

I thought it was a simple 2/3 majority vote - wouldn't have to involve a no confidence motion? If the govt. want a GE I think they should be able to get enough support from the other parties.

daphnedill Mon 20-Mar-17 08:27:29

Farron has stated that he would be willing to support Labour, but not with Corbyn. If LibDem support keeps increasing, they might be persuaded to go for an election, especially if they do well in the May local elections, but I can't really see it. I think they'd wait until Corbyn has gone and see if Labour has a leader they could work with. IMHO

To be honest, I don't really know how the Fixed-term Parliament Act works, as it's never been tested. I don't think May can just call an election, which is why I think she'd have to be forced into it.

daphnedill Mon 20-Mar-17 08:32:34

Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:[2]

If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".

The Conservatives could certainly manufacture a situation where a simple majority would force an election, but it would mean replacing most of the current government. I did wonder a few days ago if that was what some back benchers are up to with their treatment of Hammond, etc, but I was shouted down on here.

I don't think two-thirds would call for an election without a vote of no confidence.

Iam64 Mon 20-Mar-17 08:35:35

Fitzy54, I suspect you speak for many people. May was a Remainer but I accept that once elected leader, she had no choice but to work effectively towards Leave. I don't understand her Hard Brexit approach unless she, like many Tory leaders, fears a backlash from the anti European Right in her party.

Anniebach Mon 20-Mar-17 08:39:31

An election now would give the Tories a far larger majority , increase the Lib vote and the Libs will not work with Corbyn

daphnedill Mon 20-Mar-17 08:41:38

I thinks that is what she fears Iam64. The next few months are going to be interesting.

PS. If you're a betting person, George Galloway is 25/1 to win the Manchester Gorton by-election - and he hasn't even confirmed that he's going to be a candidate!

daphnedill Mon 20-Mar-17 08:43:16

I think you've just about summed it up anniebach. That's why some Conservatives are pushing for it. They don't need to worry about Ukip either.

Anniebach Mon 20-Mar-17 09:08:05

The conservatives know this is a great time to increase their majority, UKIP in a tangle and Corbyn the most unpopular leader the party has ever had

A sure Tory five year government

rosesarered Mon 20-Mar-17 09:16:31

I hope that T May will withstand any pressure on her to hold an early GE ( the Conservatives would win easily) but I think the country at large has had enough of
Referendums/elections and needs a period of quiet stability whilst the Brexit negotiating goes on this year.

Fitzy54 Mon 20-Mar-17 09:30:51

But Annie could the LibDems possibly do well enough to hold the balance of power again? Maybe a lot of people whom the polls currently suggest would vote Tory would choose LD if Farron accepted that he would have to work with them if they had the most seats?

rosesarered Mon 20-Mar-17 09:36:35

The problem for Lib Dems is that they have gone all out in wanting another referendum ( to get a Remain majority) when some of the Lib Dem voters may well have voted to Leave (me, and quite a few of our friends.)So that knocks back their support somewhat.

rosesarered Mon 20-Mar-17 09:37:49

The Leave/Remain voting has clouded the political waters.

Anniebach Mon 20-Mar-17 09:41:53

Fitzy, the Libs cannot hold balance of power at the next election, they wouldn't be needed by the Tories when they win by a much larger majority anyway.

Talk of coalition by greens, Lib , and labour is nonsense, greens have one seat, Libs will not work with Corbyn.

Riverwalk Mon 20-Mar-17 09:51:47

It's assumed by most people, including me, that Labour would lose heavily and the Tories would gain a big majority, but the electorate as we now know is extremely fickle and unpredictable.

George Osborne for one could face a serious challenge from a new Martin Bell-type candidate who would make much of multi-jobs, conflicts of interests, etc.

Paul Nuttall has become a figure of fun and lacking credibility so not much threat from UKIP, but Nige might like to have yet another stab at South Thanet, particularly as the Tory winner is named in the spending scandal. I'm sure TM wouldn't want him in the HoC during Brexit negotiations.

Anniebach Mon 20-Mar-17 09:56:09

Osbourne's contituency is on the list of lost seats come the boundery changes

Fitzy54 Mon 20-Mar-17 10:02:53

Riverwalk, I agree entirely re the current unpredictability of the electorate. If the LDs ran the right campaign they might well have a chance of holding the balance of power. However I also agree that the most likely outcome is an increased Tory majority

Anniebach Mon 20-Mar-17 10:08:03

Voters are won over by the party leader , many do not trawl the net , they watch tv and decide

dbDB77 Mon 20-Mar-17 10:08:22

Another point to consider - the effect of the boundary changes. Would Theresa may prefer a GE after they have been implemented? I agree with other posters who have said that we need a period of stability - don't think I could face another election just now.

daphnedill Mon 20-Mar-17 10:35:42

The vast majority of LibDems voted Remain. The EU is in the LibDems' DNA and they have been 100% consistent in their views throughout. I don't suppose they're too bothered by losing the odd voter or two. Their membership is increasing and they're doing well in local elections and by-elections. It depends how they target their campaigns. They could very well get back to 2010 numbers. The bigger question is whether Labour can stop the Conservatives from winning an absolute majority. It's unlikely that many seats will go from Labour to Conservative, but after Copeland anything is possible.

daphnedill Mon 20-Mar-17 10:39:28

Farron has said he would consider working with Labour, but not with Corbyn. I think it would be more likely to be a working agreement rather than a formal coalition.