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Snap election - could TM have seriously miscalculated?

(142 Posts)
MawBroon Sun 28-May-17 07:33:39

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/who-will-win-general-election-2017-latest-polls-odds-tracker/

Everybody (including the government) has seemed seemed to assume the Tories were on track for a landslide victory but current opinion polls suggest Labour is closing the gap. Support for Jeremy Corbyn is increasing especially among women and the projections suggest he will do better than Miliband.
Now, it could be one of several things
Fear of the consequences of a massive Tory majority
Distrust of May in the Brexit negotiations (and they will go ahead I assume )
I think hopes of a U turn there are misguided and in any case the resulting uncertainty and confusion would be catastrophic for the economy. The damage has been done there.
Maybe women don't like a "bloody difficult woman"
Or is it the twinkly eyes and the beard?

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 11:40:41

Hopefully even more votes lost for Mayhem.

www.independent.co.uk/environment/theresa-may-donald-trump-mole-eu-europe-climate-change-greenpeace-leaked-documents-a7761236.html

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 11:41:51

energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/05/28/brexit-uk-eu-climate-change-energy-efficiency/

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 11:57:55

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/28/uncertainty-politics-u-turns-polls

whitewave Mon 29-May-17 14:33:35

I think that most people would agree that May has bungled so much of this election.

What worries me is that we are expecting her to reside over the Brexit process. Doesn't bode well, given her clear level of incompetence to date.

However, given the fact that the Tories have landed us in this God awful mess I am inclined to think that they are welcome to it. Nor sure why any other party should be expected to pick up the fallout. It will become crystal clear, despite their scrabbling to hide it, their incompetence and ignorance as the whole sorry business unfolds.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 14:42:38

Another election in two years time?

Jalima1108 Mon 29-May-17 14:55:28

djen with respect, the interview is with a couple of disgruntled farmers and someone who has moved from the city to a smallholding and b&b so not really representative of the agricultural area of the West and South-West - although I would not be surprised at a return to the Liberal Democrats in those areas..

Lib Dems have always been strong in the West and Tessa Munt was a popular and hardworking MP.

whitewave Mon 29-May-17 14:58:23

I am still wondering why Neil asked May if she intended to see the whole term out. It isn't a question one normally asks. It is all leaving loads of unanswered questions.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:01:12

I can't see her lasting until 2012 whether the tories win or not, whitewave. She's too damaged now.

whitewave Mon 29-May-17 15:05:13

She has never been liked and almost got the leadership by default as looking back after the referendum, and the debacle over the leadership bids, they hadn't really got their act together and so for lack of a reasonable candidate etc.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:05:50

The seat of Wells was held by the tories for 86 years before Tessa Munt took it in 2010. In 2015 it was taken back by the tories. It could easily be the libdems again this time. I sincerely hope so.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:08:09

Oh, and it's the seat where the tory MP swore at a Scottish schoolgirl. Not a good advert for strong and stable.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:13:20

anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/why-do-mainstream-press-let-tories-get.html

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 15:18:14

Simon Wren-Lewis thinks Mayhem seriously miscalculated, and that she's nowhere near as strong and stable as her supporters think she is. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to read his blog.

voxpoliticalonline.com/2017/05/29/the-more-we-see-of-theresa-may-the-less-she-seems-like-a-leader/

varian Mon 29-May-17 19:17:34

I have just forced myself to watch a party political broadcast by the Theresa May party. I feel physically sick.

durhamjen Mon 29-May-17 19:19:40

It was on. I didn't watch. I was printing out a list of questions for Paxman to ask her tonight, and see how many he does ask her.
Definitely not going to watch Neil and Nuttall.

Nezumi65 Mon 29-May-17 22:24:33

I'm no Tory, but the thing that has surprised me most about this campaign is how out of touch with her own supporters TM is. I don't expect her to understand, or care about, the lives of groups such as the disabled (see past few years of Tory policy) - but I expected her to understand what her own supporters want. Which isn't to hand over their assets to the government when they die. Personally I can think many policies the Tories have introduced that have been worse - but I would never vote Tory - so I don't expect to agree with their policies. But talk about not understanding the concerns of your supporter base. And fox hunting?? Hunters were always going to vote Tory anyway - all she's done is alienated some more moderate or urban Tories.

She only listens to a very small group of advisors. She seems an absolute liability. If Corbyn was supported by the press he would be storming.

Personally I'd like a hung parliament, all the swivel eyed loons (whether raving left or right) to wind their necks in and electoral reform to take place so I can actually start to vote for who I want to (am in a key marginal so have to vote Labour - making that easier on myself by vote swapping). I'm a fan of cross Party decision making and moderation - I think TM (& maybe to a lesser extent Corbyn) highlight the problems of the current system - where the country's policy & direction can be driven by the extremists within a Party.

Nezumi65 Mon 29-May-17 22:34:08

Oh and while I might not want Corbyn negotiating Brexit I would be happy for Keir Starmer to do so. Keir or Boris??? Hmmm - not much competition.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 09:22:43

Mayhem has seriously miscalculated with putting this man in charge of anything.

click.mail.theguardian.com/?qs=e9a38f9892fe53ebb632e8950d7c9cc60504c9fd6c31cb479763eda3bba65ccf463aad7f71b10148f68246a8d4c112bb

Who do you want to negotiate our exit from the EU, Johnson or Starmer?

Luckygirl Tue 30-May-17 09:50:18

In view of the fact that TM's openly admitted purpose in holding this election was to boost her majority so that she could go into the Brexit negotiations with a strong hand, then yes I think she has miscalculated. If the polls are to be believed then she will go in with a weaker hand.

That's what you get for arrogantly pre-empting the result of a GE - Brits don't like being taken for granted and told what to do.

merlotgran Tue 30-May-17 10:10:04

Risking the wrath of pensioners is a serious miscalculation IMO. They're the ones who bother to vote and for whom transport is laid on if they have problems getting to the polling station. Many of them choose to vote the way they have always voted but worries about losing the WFA, triple lock pensions etc., even if it doesn't persuade them to vote labour might just be their reason to stay at home and not vote at all.

TM might not get the majority she's banking on.

whitewave Tue 30-May-17 10:46:21

I didn't realise that the Tories have tied the hands of Charities like Help the Aged.

They are by law prevented from giving out information during the election. So they are very worried about things like the winter fuel allowance and potential deaths along of course with the Social Care issue but can't say anything about it.

Jalima1108 Tue 30-May-17 10:47:21

merlotgran I agree, and TM probably did this in an attempt to woo the younger generation but in such an obscure way that it has backfired.

angelab Tue 30-May-17 11:03:18

Sorry not to have read this thread all the way through, so this point may already have been made: I feel TM has made the same mistake as DC with the referendum, so sure she was going to get a huge majority that she just sat back and took it all for granted. Hopefully this will come back to bite her.

Jalima1108 Tue 30-May-17 11:04:11

we need a Time Machine.

daphnedill Tue 30-May-17 11:52:47

If she did do it to woo the younger generation, it seriously has backfired.

All the polls are showing that 18-35 year olds support Labour. Unfortunately for them, they're a much smaller group than over 65s, the majority of whom support the Conservatives.