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Snap election - could TM have seriously miscalculated?

(141 Posts)
MawBroon Sun 28-May-17 07:33:39

Everybody (including the government) has seemed seemed to assume the Tories were on track for a landslide victory but current opinion polls suggest Labour is closing the gap. Support for Jeremy Corbyn is increasing especially among women and the projections suggest he will do better than Miliband.
Now, it could be one of several things
Fear of the consequences of a massive Tory majority
Distrust of May in the Brexit negotiations (and they will go ahead I assume )
I think hopes of a U turn there are misguided and in any case the resulting uncertainty and confusion would be catastrophic for the economy. The damage has been done there.
Maybe women don't like a "bloody difficult woman"
Or is it the twinkly eyes and the beard?

tanith Sun 28-May-17 07:36:51

One can but hope that people are seeing sensesmile

petra Sun 28-May-17 07:42:18

The glimps of his vest does it for me grin

merlotgran Sun 28-May-17 07:47:20

Not bothered about a 'bloody difficult woman.' I definitely don't want Diane Abbot thrust upon us.

Anya Sun 28-May-17 08:10:34

Or is it nothing to do with not liking other women, but wanting a decent education for our children and grandchildren, good quality health care for all, an effective police and security service........etc,,...

Christinefrance Sun 28-May-17 08:15:08

Or maybe it's about the bigger picture and not just personalities. I do agree with merlotgran though.

Jane10 Sun 28-May-17 08:58:33

No guarantees of 'a decent education, health care etc'. Extremely worrying prospect that of this ageing student activist representing the UK at such serious negotiations as brexit requires. There's too much at stake to take a chance on Corbyn.

whitewave Sun 28-May-17 09:07:54

What's at stake??

So at the moment we have stagnant incomes overall, with a FALL in income for the poorest in society and the biggest increase in equality since Thatcher.

Pay packets shrinking for only the third time since the war.

Family budgets are under severe threat.
The vast majority of huge Tory welfare cuts will be rolled out over the ne t few years. The poorest third of households will be £1000 worse off per year!!!!!

Of course from the majority of pensioners comfortable existence - and lack of compassion, there is nothing wrong with a bit of austerity - it is necessary to get the economy back on track.

How ridiculous that argument is beginning to sound and well as totally muddle headed.

Luckygirl Sun 28-May-17 09:10:46

I do not think that anyone will be "taking a chance on Corbyn" as there is no chance that he will win. But what he may be able to do is reduce the majority so that May will not achieve what she set out to do, i.e. get huge backing for her style of Brexit negotiations and the policies that lead to austerity and collapsing public services. That is what I see as the aim.

But in my constituency it is a bit of a dilemma, as the sitting Tory has a huge majority. Only the Lib Dems have ever beaten the Tories here, so they sound like the best bet - BUT Labour is much higher in the national polls.

whitewave Sun 28-May-17 09:13:14

lucky personally I would go with whoever is most likely to save us from another disastrous 5 years. Which could be anyone but ukip or Tory!!!

Anniebach Sun 28-May-17 09:14:29

I so want a labour government but am filled with dread at the thought of Corbyn and McDionald running the country and with a cabinet without a scrape of experience between them, and the thought of Corbyn representing the UK on the world stage is just a nightmare

Jane10 Sun 28-May-17 09:19:10

I wouldn't mind a better opposition party. I've voted Labour in the past before in the days when I had more confidence in their leadership and experience. I'm with Anniebach on this.

varian Sun 28-May-17 09:47:08

Luckygirl it does not matter that Labour is higher than the LibDems nationally. If the LibDems are best placed to beat the Tories in your constituency you must vote LibDem. In fact if unsure whether your vote is most likely to be effective you should look at the 2010 results not just 2015 when the LibDems were ruthlessly targetted by the dirty tricks department of the Conservative party.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 10:23:24

Luckygirl you are right, it is very unlikely that we will get a Labour government. Even with the closing in the polls there is still a huge gap but the movement is making the Tories think and that has to be good for us when any party stops taking votes for granted.

If you go to this site and just put your postcode in here and it will tell you which vote would serve you best if you want to keep the majority low. You can then make your mind up which way to go when you vote.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 10:31:45

Annie those MPs to the right of Corbyn are really not helping to change anything within the Labour Party by not being part of the team. They would balance those you see as - well, whatever you see them as. Surely it is time for them to step up to the plate and ensure as small a majority for T May as possible. I am sure they can do more from within than without.

Jalima1108 Sun 28-May-17 10:37:21

Of course from the majority of pensioners comfortable existence - and lack of compassion

I would imagine that the majority of pensioners have families so are in touch with what their lives are like if not those of all of the younger generation.
Not all pensioners are leading a comfortable existence.
Most do not lack compassion.
Not all the younger generations are on the breadline and struggling and in fact many of them seem to have better lives, more holidays, cars etc than I did when I was their age.

Not whingeing or complaining that we had it tough, just stating facts.

And before anyone mentions people having to visit food banks - they did not exist years ago so some parents would go without a meal to ensure that their children were fed some kind of meal.

Alima Sun 28-May-17 10:42:58

In answer to your question MawBroon, I do so hope not. The mere thought of the alternative is enough to bring on a panic attack.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 10:51:04

Could you have misread what Whitewave was saying Jalima? (or could I?) I thought she was describing that as the Conservative view.

daphnedill Sun 28-May-17 10:52:40

Of course not every young family is on the breadline, nor are all pensioners wealthy. However, this chart shows that the median pensioner income after housing costs is above the working-age equivalent.

Jalima1108 Sun 28-May-17 10:55:00

Well, I thought she meant that the majority of pensioners have the attitude of 'I'm all right Jack' but I could be wrong. If so, sorry ww

I think many pensioners are very comfortably off but not all are and they do seem to be the generation which works hard for charity and appreciates the difficulties that many people encounter in their lives.

daphnedill Sun 28-May-17 10:57:51

I would say "some" not "many" from the pensioners I know. wink

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 10:59:26

I think your graph shows an overall picture Daphne but I do think we should be careful to make any taxation and/or benefits work to the individual not the 'typical' which I assume is average or mean(?). That figure in each group could be reached by many different compositions of income within the group.

whitewave Sun 28-May-17 11:02:36

I think one of the issues -amongst many - that Mays fellow Tories are undoubtedly grumbling about behind closed doors is the fact that the Tory party has morphed into the May party.

There has only been one instance since she called the election when she has appeared with one of her ministers and that was Hammond, in which she conspicuously refused to rely to the question as to whether she had confidence in him.

Every time she opens her mouth she begins it with I, myself or me. Where is her party in all this? She appeared to want to keep what was at one time likely to be a big victory all to herself.

There is no doubt that Mays brand is becoming more toxic as the weeks go by. The conduct of the campaign has been very poor and the party faithful are becoming edgy.

GracesGranMK2 Sun 28-May-17 11:04:00

I'm not sure either Jalima. When we write quickly to get our point across we can all make it a bit less clear than we intended (well, I can do that and I write a half-speed unless I dictategrin then it's the machines fault) so perhaps WW could let us know.

whitewave Sun 28-May-17 11:07:13

Sorry I'll re read what I've said. I'm having a coffee break at the moment from the garden.