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Pollsters predict shock Tory Losses

(185 Posts)
GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 22:42:27

YouGov estimate points to hung parliament with 20 fewer seats for May

Its only one poll but a very large one predicting a Conservative Party loss of 20 seats and Labour gain of nearly 30 leading to a hung parliament.

rosesarered Fri 02-Jun-17 11:34:05

Certain cities, London included will always be Labour strongholds overall.

rosesarered Fri 02-Jun-17 11:33:00

Varian am glad that you put the real truth out there, that the LiB Dems didn't just 'choose' to go into coalition with the Conservatives, it was the only thing they could do.Nick Clegg did really well, but was given no credit at all.

durhamjen Fri 02-Jun-17 10:21:51

Statistics from London.

YouGov (them again) gave the Evening Standard a first edition (it was changed later) splash that the Corbyn surge has really taken off in London. Labour were on 50% to the Tories’ 33%. For the first time, the capital’s voters rated Corbyn (37%) over May (34%) as the best candidate for Prime Minister.

GracesGranMK2 Fri 02-Jun-17 08:40:16

Nobody knows what the final results will be - I believe its media hype. these polls can never be confirmed as to how many people took part and what their personal beliefs were.

Anniegold, I wonder if you realise what polling is? Obviously nobody knows what the result will be; polling is not the election. However, these are statistical assessments with all the knowledge of the people carrying them out and they are always given a wide range of possibility.

The media will report the results - just as they will report the results of scientific research into a cure for an illness and they will interpret them in the way the whichever branch of the media they are in does this. The media may bias their interpretation of the result but it is up to us to know the style and positioning of the media so we know how to read this.

Of course we can know how many people took part - why would you think we do not - it is usually reported, even by some of our biased media? We will also be told what modelling they used to arrive at their conclusions. It is all very clear. It is your job to become informed not just to accept the information any one source of media may feed you.

GracesGranMK2 Fri 02-Jun-17 08:20:14

couldn't not could.

GracesGranMK2 Fri 02-Jun-17 08:19:51

Tegan your SO is right in that they did say they could go into a coalition with a GB led party but the maths did not add up so they couldn't anyway.

Anya Fri 02-Jun-17 08:16:06

It's a bit like the weather forecast though isn't it? Hit and miss.

I'd sooner go outside and look around at the sky or, in this case, listen to what people around me are saying. Of course that's only the local forecast, no idea what Essex Girl thinks.

durhamjen Thu 01-Jun-17 21:59:24

Of course they can. Pollsters don't just pluck figures out of the air.

Just go and have a look on yougov, and you'll see how many people are on there, and how they vote.

anniegold195 Thu 01-Jun-17 21:51:41

Nobody knows what the final results will be - I believe its media hype. these polls can never be confirmed as to how many people took part and what their personal beliefs were.

durhamjen Thu 01-Jun-17 21:48:32

inews.co.uk/essentials/news/theresa-may-refuses-appear-womans-hour-sends-justine-greening-instead/

Strong and stable, or frit?

durhamjen Thu 01-Jun-17 21:30:54

voxpoliticalonline.com/2017/06/01/the-young-boys-reaction-to-theresa-may-at-the-end-of-this-clip-is-priceless/

Tegan2 Thu 01-Jun-17 17:23:15

The S.O. [whose political memory is far better than mine] says that the LibDems wouldn't go into a coalition with Labour unless Gordon Brown stood down as leader.I did ask someone on facebook why there was still so much anger against the LibDems and the answer was that they fought the election on a left wing [ish] platform, took votes from Labour at the time and then joined forces with the Conservative. Now, I'm not saying that those are the facts, only that that is what people have said to me.I still have a lot of time for the LibDems and, in my area they and the Labour Party always worked closely together but I needed to understand the arguments against them.

GracesGranMK2 Thu 01-Jun-17 17:20:45

I did whitewave, thank you. (Note to self - don't write when you are really, really tiredgrin)

whitewave Thu 01-Jun-17 17:15:12

Do you mean Labour?

GracesGranMK2 Thu 01-Jun-17 17:12:41

The figures didn't add up Jen, that's why the Lib Dems could not go into coalition with the Conservatives.

You can't make something happen that isn't there.

angelab Thu 01-Jun-17 16:57:30

dj not clear to me how possible coalition of Brown & Clegg fits with what you said earlier "he Labour Party rule book says that members are not supposed to work with any other parties. Otherwise they lose their membership"?

varian Thu 01-Jun-17 16:55:12

In 2010 the combination of Labour and LibDem MPs did not add up to a majority and so the LibDems went into coalition with the biggest party, the Conservatives, somewhat reluctantly. They put the interests of the country before those of the party and were punished at the next election.

Mistakes were made. There should have been a guarantee of a PR referendum (not AV which hardly anyone wanted) and of course they should never have acquiesced in the Tory policy of raising tuition fees.

I believe that it will take some time for the Liberal Democrats to recover but the membership is stronger than ever and I think that history will be kinder in its judgement of that coalition government than in its judgement of what has followed since 2015.

durhamjen Thu 01-Jun-17 16:47:59

That's right, whitewave. No amnesia at all. They were both trying to get Clegg to agree with them, but in the end he chose Cameron. We all know how that turned out.

Tories are getting desperate. They've had to wheel out Nicky Morgan - who says that women love Mayhem!

inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/nicky-morgan-social-care-manifesto-backlash-good-thing/

whitewave Thu 01-Jun-17 16:25:43

That is not how I remember it. There were certainly talks, but no agreement was reached.

Ana Thu 01-Jun-17 16:16:54

"I agree with Nick!" grin

POGS Thu 01-Jun-17 16:14:47

Seems to be a case of selective amnesia going on.

Labour / Gordon Brown tried to bend over backwards to get into coalition with Lib Dems in 2010 !

durhamjen Thu 01-Jun-17 16:06:21

It's not surprising that Labour do not trust Libdems, Iam. Look at what happened in the coalition. That's why the Libdems were punished in 2015.

Anyway, the Labour Party rule book says that members are not supposed to work with any other parties. Otherwise they lose their membership.

Iam64 Thu 01-Jun-17 16:01:38

If only the left of centre parties would grow up and work with the areas where they have consensus.
I didn't see the debate as I'm away but it sounds as though the audience showed displeasure with much of the conservative agenda. No, I do not believe it was a left wing audience, carefully selected by the BBC.

whitewave Thu 01-Jun-17 15:26:07

As rose is so fond of saying

"We will just have to wait and see"

POGS Thu 01-Jun-17 15:23:54

Corbyn and Emily Thornberry have catagorically ruled out going into coalition with 'ANY' other party.

If they win with no overall majority they will submit a Queens Speech as such.