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Pollsters predict shock Tory Losses

(184 Posts)
GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 22:42:27

YouGov estimate points to hung parliament with 20 fewer seats for May

Its only one poll but a very large one predicting a Conservative Party loss of 20 seats and Labour gain of nearly 30 leading to a hung parliament.

vampirequeen Tue 30-May-17 22:47:50

Fingers crossed.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 22:49:31

Very hard VQ, very hard. I think it shows just how upset people were by the Dementia Tax.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 22:53:08

I was expecting something like that today, after last night's Paxman programme.
Newsnight is on at the moment with pensioners and young voters.
"Care is not a money sink."

Corbyn was good on The One Show tonight as well.

petra Tue 30-May-17 22:58:24

Stephan Shakespeare, the founder of YouGov predicted that remain would win the referendum.

Anniebach Tue 30-May-17 23:02:29

Good on the One Show? Do you mean he gave away a jar of jam?

Smileless2012 Tue 30-May-17 23:02:40

You can't go by the polls, when was the last time any of them got it right? I'm crossing my fingers for TM, I might end up crossing my legs too but not my eyes; never have been able to do thatgrin.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 23:04:06

I give away jars of jam and chutney. Is that a problem?
My grandson helps me make them.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 23:04:42

I'm not sure if it was done on the usual basis Jen.

"The poll allows for big variations, however, and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, 15 more than at present, and as few as 274 seats on a bad night."

It looks like the modelling is controversial (especially with Tories I would think) but they used it during the referendum and it always had leave ahead.

Ah - found it.
The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov.

This, apparently allows a different and more complex assessment - the details are in the article.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 23:06:04

That's a large number and they did need to remodel. Interesting that it is not after last nights interviews - and more hopeful.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 23:06:47

Petra, I wonder if it was this modelling that made he do that?

GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 23:07:49

him not he

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 23:08:50

Zahawi backed leave. That made sure that one of the founders was right.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 23:12:21

Actually realised they said this model predicted leave.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 23:36:29

This is how some of the papers are attacking Labour because of that poll,GracesGran. Obviously this will be in the next print run of The Times, once they are on message.
All lies, of course, but when did that stop them.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 23:36:38

The Guardian also has a poll with a narrowing lead.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 23:54:10

Have you seen Steve Bell's cartoon? Emperor's new clothes?

This is about the yougov poll and model. It always said leave, according to Shakespeare.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 23:55:13

Have you seen Steve Bell's cartoon? Emperor's new clothes?

This is about the yougov poll and model. It always said leave, according to Shakespeare.

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 23:58:35

A problem for blue Labour, isn't it? Do they want to get behind the leader of their party, or not?

durhamjen Tue 30-May-17 23:59:37

Bell's cartoon.

janeainsworth Wed 31-May-17 00:01:00

<goes into Bernard Woolley mode>
Er, they won't be shock losses if the pollsters are already predicting them, will they?

janeainsworth Wed 31-May-17 00:03:51

I know you were only quoting the Times headline gg.

GracesGranMK2 Wed 31-May-17 00:19:24

It shocked me Janegrin

There once was a Labour chap -one of the old Labour ones - who said a week was a long time in politics so no chickens to be counted but if it means the 'land-slide' is smaller I shall be grateful.

I just love the cartoon Jensmile

janeainsworth Wed 31-May-17 00:38:35

Harold Wilson according to Wikipedia smile

daphnedill Wed 31-May-17 01:34:10

The pollsters are saying that the problem with the surge in support for Labour is that it's in constituencies where support is already high - London, Manchester, Liverpool etc - and the popular vote is unlikely to translate into number of seats. Who knows?

Nevertheless, if the Conservative majority is kept down and the left of centre vote is high, it bodes well for 2022, if Labour can sort out its image without compromising on its progressive policies. The elctorate will be made up of different people.

If the Conservatives fail to win a huge majority, my guess is that there will be a change of party leadership. The names being bandied about are Liam Fox and Amber Rudd. Heaven help us all!

My theory has always been that May called this election, because the back benchers have been sharpening their knives. The election has given her a chance to parachute some loyal "yes people" into safe Tory seats.