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Pollsters predict shock Tory Losses

(185 Posts)
GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 22:42:27

YouGov estimate points to hung parliament with 20 fewer seats for May

Its only one poll but a very large one predicting a Conservative Party loss of 20 seats and Labour gain of nearly 30 leading to a hung parliament.

Blinko Wed 31-May-17 12:51:08

Wombat grin

durhamjen Wed 31-May-17 12:47:50

Corbyn has also said he is on his way to Cambridge to take part in the debate tonight. He's challenged May to go as well.

lovebeigecardigans1955 Wed 31-May-17 12:22:50

It'll be interesting to see if any of these polls are right. I gather that TM called this election because she thought there'd be a landslide, thus giving her more power. Pride comes before a fall, as they say.
OTOH if all the Tories take the poll seriously they'll all go out and vote. We shall see.

radicalnan Wed 31-May-17 11:36:47

JC has said that no Uni fees 'will begin this autumn' if he gets in so the kids may turn up and vote him in.

They are all the same sort of animal, I loathe all politicians with a passion normally reserved for Kale and other un natural stuff.

grabba Wed 31-May-17 11:35:52

Lets hope it's a landslide away from the present Government.

Teresa May is alleged to have said she will go after this election. Kind of puts a different slant on the Brexit negotiations if she isn't going to be handling them. Rumour has it they will have Boris doing that job.

quizqueen Wed 31-May-17 11:34:37

Although I obviously hope to leave an inheritance for my children, the previous figure which you had to get down to before the state took over paying for your care was less than £25,000 so the figure in the Tory manifesto is now 4 x times that.

What people should be more concerned about is that those who don't attempt to provide for themselves in any way will be the ones to benefit the most. If people think Labour will be able to pay for all they are promising they will be very disappointed. They almost ruined the economy last time they were in government or have you forgotten the 'There's no money left' note.

Nemo Wed 31-May-17 11:27:54

Seem to be finding a lot of hair when I was or brush it ?. I'm 67, any suggestions for what to do please?

Irishrose Wed 31-May-17 11:27:12

I hope the Torys are booted out. What an unfair society we live in The labour party is for the people while the Torys are all for keeping the rich richer at the expense of everyone else. If everyone in the N H S voted labour we might be able to keep the gem of a health service we have.They conservative folk in Dowing Street should be made to watch the Ken Roach film I Daniel Blake maybe they might just see how many have to live .

Ana Wed 31-May-17 11:25:26

(to wombat)

Ana Wed 31-May-17 11:24:05

Very funny.

Lilyflower Wed 31-May-17 11:23:30

I have told two polls now, including YouGov, that I am voting UKIP because I an cross about the Conservative care plans in order to give the party a shot across the bows. I have no intention of voting anything but Conservative.

Also, I think the newspapers who are fearful of a Corbyn victory are exaggerating the likelihood of a Labour victory to ensure the shy Tories come out in droves.

Labour's 'garden tax' which they propose to introduce once elected would see ordinary voters whose houses were worth a reasonable amount (e.g. in the south) paying a 3% tax on the capital value EVERY YEAR. Imagine having a £300,000 house and having to pay nine grand A YEAR.

Asset taxing is the great, secret danger of voting for Labour under Corbyn. Many of the people who are thinking of voting for the party have no idea that their house equity will be sucked away from them as Corbyn is trying to keep it quiet for now.

ExaltedWombat Wed 31-May-17 11:20:17

Don't forget to publicise this announcement as widely as possible.

Crazygrandma2 Wed 31-May-17 11:09:01

Can but hope but in reality my best hope is that tories get a reduced majority. If it's a landslide then I think public services are doomed.

RosemarySuperager Wed 31-May-17 11:07:56

Seems like Liar Liar is having an effect.

DotMH1901 Wed 31-May-17 11:04:03

Good - hope they are right

spabbygirl Wed 31-May-17 10:56:43

I would love a labour victory, I value our public services

durhamjen Wed 31-May-17 10:53:29

They were planning to get it right by 2020. May threw a spanner in their works, too.

GracesGranMK2 Wed 31-May-17 09:17:57

Grannypiper that is why they have been running this new - and larger - form of modelling. But I agree, most of us would be stunned if any of them got it right after recent days.

GracesGranMK2 Wed 31-May-17 09:12:50

Jane thank you for the post Wed 31-May-17 03:06:17. A good article warning about not taking any poll to seriously.

whitewave Wed 31-May-17 09:05:37

Exactly so dj

I want to know if she intends to tell the truth about Brexit before the election. She is still flogging the no deal lie.

durhamjen Wed 31-May-17 09:00:39

Whitewave, Mayhem will be long gone by then, and she doesn't have any children to worry about. She'll probably leave all her wealth to the Tory party, a research endowment.

grannypiper Wed 31-May-17 08:58:29

I would be truly shocked and stunned if the polls managed to predict the actual outcome, when was the last time they were right ? If they were to be believed we wouldn't be leaving the E.U, the U.S would have Clinton as POCUS and Scotland would have minni the minx as Prime minister.

durhamjen Wed 31-May-17 08:58:29

"Another positive thing for Labour is that these projections rely on the usual levels of voter turnout, with older voters (who are more likely to vote Conservative) voting in large numbers. What these numbers can’t predict is whether the million new young voters, who are currently polling at 69% for Labour, will swing a few more seats in Corbyn’s favour. If The Labour Party can get under 25’s out to vote on a big enough scale, June the 8th may be an even bigger success story for the party than figures already suggest.

By pledging to scrap tuition fees, build affordable housing, and scrap zero hours contracts, Labour has cemented itself as being the party for young people, whilst still appealing to older voters by promising to protect the triple-lock on pensions and totally oppose the universally criticised dementia tax."

From this article.

evolvepolitics.com/new-yougov-estimates-show-tories-will-lose-majority/

Jane10 Wed 31-May-17 08:44:57

All politicians only think short term!!

whitewave Wed 31-May-17 08:32:39

What are they going to use for collateral when they get ancient and need care?

Tories couldn't care less as they only. Think short term