Pollsters predict shock Tory Losses

Was that from Newsnight last night?
They asked the under 30s how many of them were buying their own house. One person!
No wonder they don't want to vote for the status quo.

Was watching a Channel 4 news where they had a group of young (under 30s?) people and a matched group of over 60s. Was pleasantly surprised that so many of the older group was impressed by Corbyn's campaign and underwhelmed by May's.

There was a feeling last year, that despite the polls, Brexit was on the cards. Just going by the audience reaction on various TV shows and debates. Got that same feeling on TV during the Corbyn/May debate the other night.

The bookies odds are indicating a big win for the tories. That's people putting their money where their mouth is.

I disagree that Fox is an idiot, but he's dishonest and doesn't seem to know much about trade or the EU (unless his Atlantic Treaty mates stand to benefit).

Ginny It was just Twitter gossip. I can't really see it, but Amber Rudd is also mentioned. She does seem to get wheeled out a lot for interviews. I think she's horrendous. She doesn't seem to have a mind of her own and is very aggressive when challenged. My nightmare would be Amber Rudd, Priti Patel and Esther McVeigh running the country, supported by the Davis/Johnson/Fox buffoons.

I don't know how anybody has the nerve to accuse the Labour Party of incompetence, considering what the Conservatives have to offer.

Fox would be a gift to the left. He is such an idiot and seems to know nothing about the EU.

No i still think May will get it.

But i think that it is more optimistic for the future and the Tory brand is becoming more and more toxic, largely due to the appalling leadership since 2010. Even the gutter press are struggling to fool the people.

Liam Fox for leader dd? Now that is scary. Where did you read that? Heaven help us indeed.

theconversation.com/are-uk-pollsters-heading-for-another-embarrassing-election-78434?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20May%2030%202017%20-%2074815778&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20May%2030%202017%20-%2074815778+CID_beefb5c914f4cbbc9cb472763727a172&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=another%20general%20election%20debacle

"Polling, after all, is difficult. It involves hitting a moving target by persuading reluctant and reflexive citizens to provide truthful responses to socially loaded questions for little or no return."

PS Jeremy Hunt tried to make his fortune exporting marmalade to Japan.

The pollsters are saying that the problem with the surge in support for Labour is that it's in constituencies where support is already high - London, Manchester, Liverpool etc - and the popular vote is unlikely to translate into number of seats. Who knows?

Nevertheless, if the Conservative majority is kept down and the left of centre vote is high, it bodes well for 2022, if Labour can sort out its image without compromising on its progressive policies. The elctorate will be made up of different people.

If the Conservatives fail to win a huge majority, my guess is that there will be a change of party leadership. The names being bandied about are Liam Fox and Amber Rudd. Heaven help us all!

My theory has always been that May called this election, because the back benchers have been sharpening their knives. The election has given her a chance to parachute some loyal "yes people" into safe Tory seats.

Harold Wilson according to Wikipedia

It shocked me Jane

There once was a Labour chap -one of the old Labour ones - who said a week was a long time in politics so no chickens to be counted but if it means the 'land-slide' is smaller I shall be grateful.

I just love the cartoon Jen

I know you were only quoting the Times headline gg.

<goes into Bernard Woolley mode>
Er, they won't be shock losses if the pollsters are already predicting them, will they?

i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9310d14fe102c0f8595e32b637f687fbf22a9757/0_0_650_441/master/650.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=7d28e1603ab15e7df231721d62b16ce1

Bell's cartoon.

A problem for blue Labour, isn't it? Do they want to get behind the leader of their party, or not?

Have you seen Steve Bell's cartoon? Emperor's new clothes?

This is about the yougov poll and model. It always said leave, according to Shakespeare.

thegreatcritique.wordpress.com/2017/05/30/new-yougov-projection-hung-parliament/

Have you seen Steve Bell's cartoon? Emperor's new clothes?

This is about the yougov poll and model. It always said leave, according to Shakespeare.

thegreatcritique.wordpress.com/2017/05/30/new-yougov-projection-hung-parliament/

The Guardian also has a poll with a narrowing lead.

This is how some of the papers are attacking Labour because of that poll,GracesGran. Obviously this will be in the next print run of The Times, once they are on message.
All lies, of course, but when did that stop them.

skwawkbox.org/2017/05/30/desperate-times-desperate-cchq-word-goes-out-to-rags-help-ge17/

Actually realised they said this model predicted leave.

Zahawi backed leave. That made sure that one of the founders was right.

him not he

Petra, I wonder if it was this modelling that made he do that?

That's a large number and they did need to remodel. Interesting that it is not after last nights interviews - and more hopeful.