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Cliff Edge anyone?

(1001 Posts)
whitewave Fri 30-Jun-17 07:31:33

This term gets bandied about in relation to Brexit without any of the consequences attached to it.

I have just done some research/ reading and thought it was time we all had the opportunity to discuss what exactly a "cliff edge Brexit" means and whether it can be taken seriously as a "no deal is better than a bad deal" deal.

So talks have failed and our government decides to go it alone.

It is day one of Britains great adventure

We have no trade deals with the EU or the rest of the world.
The economy goes into recession
We now have in front of us several years of negotiating trade deals both with our potentially biggest customer -Europe and the rest of the World.
Countries like Argentina and others that bear a grudge will block any dealings with the WTO.
Getting exports to Europe will become an absolute nightmare, as even if we have successfully arranged our borders for a post Brexit scenario, Europe has only just begun to get their border controls in place for the flow of goods to and from the UK.
The SE becomes a huge lorry park as good stand waiting to be processed. There is a potential for shortages to occur- particularly in relation to food, as there is only one port in Europe that is set up to deal with this commodity, and that is not yet functioning.
Issues like "country of origin" causes complete chaos for business and everything becomes a bureaucratic nightmare.
Flights are delayed/cancelled until the UK can do its own deals with regard to flight rights.
And of course as we have read only recently, nuclear material will dry up, threatening cancer and other treatment.

References are available on request????

durhamjen Sat 22-Jul-17 18:53:01

theconversation.com/brexit-lessons-from-britains-19th-century-push-for-free-trade-79400

Any historians on this thread?

durhamjen Sat 22-Jul-17 18:08:53

“Leaving the EU gives us a once in a lifetime opportunity to reform how we manage agriculture and fisheries, how we care for our land, our rivers and our seas, how we recast our ambition for our country’s environment, and the planet,” Gove will say, according to extracts of his speech emailed by his office. “Outside the European Union there is scope for Britain not just to set the very highest standards in marine conservation, but to be a global leader in environmental policy across the board.”

The speech by Gove, who was one of the most prominent campaigners for a “Leave” vote in last year’s referendum on EU membership, aims to reassure the British public that the government won’t relax environmental standards after Brexit. Environmentalists as well as the opposition Labour and Liberal Democrat parties have said that environmental protections that result from EU laws must be preserved once the country has left the bloc. "

Do you think that the environmentalist Gove has any idea what he is talking about?
I don't think we have met any of our environmental obligations over the past few years. Why should we do so after we have left the EU?

durhamjen Sat 22-Jul-17 16:38:42

This is a brilliant letter from the other EU countries about the election and Brexit.

ukandeu.ac.uk/a-letter-to-theresa-may/

I wonder if they'll get a reply.

Welshwife Sat 22-Jul-17 15:51:02

Same as us Mamie - our neighbour's are lovely although we don't have many near us - we do of course know some in the nearby towns. The quality of life is good - diaries ay not needing to rush out to work daily helps there!

As Mamie says if you get yourself into the system before the dreaded axe falls you will at least get the same deal as the rest of us - and as long as you are not thinking that if it doesn't work out you will move to Germany, Italy or some other EU country then you should be fine. If UK does modify its policy towards the EU citizens in UK then that position should not be there either.

We have found the health service here to be great - I am sure that I would not still have DH here with me were it not for our local hospital.

Mamie Sat 22-Jul-17 10:09:32

I suspect that if you move before Brexit and get straight into the system, then you would be ok. You have to demonstrate that you can live in a "regular fashion" with sufficient income (lower than the UK requirements), health cover (currently via S1 for UK pensioners) and register to pay tax here.
With hindsight we should probably have chosen somewhere on the edge of a small town, but all our neighbours seem to manage in their nineties.
Language is important though.
We have had nothing but kindness and sympathy from our French friends since Brexit.

whitewave Sat 22-Jul-17 09:58:37

mamie I envy you it sounds divine. We have been talking about moving to France this week, but only in a superficial way. We are wondering how it would affect anyone now with Brexit? Shame as it does restrict opportunities. I know of so many people who perhaps live here and commute to France.

Mamie Sat 22-Jul-17 09:50:48

We find it is easier to live cheaply here too. We have a very big vegetable and fruit garden and a house with plenty of room for people to stay. We go shopping when we need to, but the only time I get tempted into buying "stuff" is in the UK (and maybe the Lidl Aisle of Shame ?).
We enjoy country life, good food and wine, books and films, but never eat out or go out for entertainment. We can holiday cheaply in beautiful France. We have a wonderful health service, good roads and infrastructure and a lovely community around us. We are close enough to the UK to go as a foot passenger for £40 return.
Brexit is a worry, money is a concern, but there are lots of compensations.

Primrose65 Sat 22-Jul-17 09:43:37

There isn't really a banking brexodus though, at least not yet.

www.cityam.com/267169/banking-brexodus-one-year-banks-have-said-brexit-and-job

The head of the BBA says: “I know the banks are very keen not to relocate jobs, not least because their staff are keen not to move. They’ve got homes here, they’ve got kids in school and so forth.”

whitewave Sat 22-Jul-17 09:31:46

ww I guess it is the drought in Spain has made a difference to fresh produce?

They have had some incredible temperatures haven't they? Last year in Córdoba we experienced nearly 40c and that was more than comfortable. After visiting the mezquita we simply found a shaded courtyard restaurant and sat by the fountain and whiled away the time over lunch, it was too hot to do much especially DH and his heart.

Mind you we've had 48c in Sicily!!!!

Welshwife Sat 22-Jul-17 09:20:13

We are managing but I do the transferring of money myself as and when needed rather than the bank doing it automatically each month at whatever rate they decide.

We still mainly run on our UK bank account - credit card with no charges for foreign transactions - and only need transferred money for bill paying etc. Works quite well.

Things here have gone up though - I notice the price of fruit and veg - melons are twice the price they were last year and fruit such as peaches are 50 centimes more a kilo.

whitewave Sat 22-Jul-17 09:16:45

At least with luck Barnier will push May into some sort of humane position with regard immigrants, and the Brits in Europe. I envy your eventual freedom of movement, my nephews girl friend was hoping to take advantage of itsad

Mamie Sat 22-Jul-17 09:11:39

.... our own

Mamie Sat 22-Jul-17 09:11:06

Yes it is very worrying ww. We lost 15% of our income because of the xchange rate in the year following the vote and had to cancel the visit to see our son and grandchildren in Spain. It is now going down even further. We have all our finances on spreadsheets and can model the impact on outgoings and expenditure. We are holding are own, but there will be lots who aren't. ?

whitewave Sat 22-Jul-17 08:56:39

Banking relocation is continuing apace, with Frankfort looking to fill the top spot. Several thousand jobs are to relocate to Frankfort.

A banking Brexidus is gathering speed.

Bank of America is planning to move some of its activities to Ireland.

No surprises there.

whitewave Sat 22-Jul-17 08:50:03

mamie and grans in Europe how is this downward trend affecting you? It must be incredibly worrying!?

whitewave Sat 22-Jul-17 08:48:37

So borrowing has jumped by nearly 50% in June. DUP anyone?

First quarter showed a dramatic slow down in the economy, although this is not yet showing in the tax receipts, but of course this delay is normal for various factors.

Borrowing is set to rise from £46bn to £58 bn this year.

This government is reckless with our economy and dreadful at economic management.

We know from experience that the Tories always play fast and lose with the economy and this rabble are almost equalling Thatchers record of mismanagement.

Labour we know is always much more conservative when managing the economy, and prudence is the watch word.

Primrose65 Sat 22-Jul-17 08:45:57

Yes, it's remarkable how those companies are ripping customers off, although that was just one airport. Why would anyone use them when the spot rate is 1.15?

whitewave Sat 22-Jul-17 08:39:45

Sterling has dropped to 88 cents at airports.

Mamie Sat 22-Jul-17 04:52:30

Roses the EU team wanted to give Brits in the EU continued freedom of movement. It is the UK side who are holding things up by refusing to agree that EU citizens in the UK could leave (for work or family reasons) and then go back again.
The EU offer for us is very good. I don't suppose the UK will be very interested in our continued freedom of movement as by leaving the single market, UK citizens in the UK will no longer have it at all.

durhamjen Sat 22-Jul-17 02:10:48

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UKIN-Cost-of-No-Deal-A4-v3.pdf

What a ridiculous thing to wish for. Hope we manage to avoid this cliff edge.

durhamjen Sat 22-Jul-17 02:07:24

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/easiest-free-trade-deal-ever

That's what we have already. Barnier says we are looking for something different to what we already have.
Fancy giving up the easiest free trade deal ever.

durhamjen Sat 22-Jul-17 02:01:20

I love sweet potato curry. Good with chick peas or lentils in it.

Jalima1108 Fri 21-Jul-17 13:50:31

Are you going to make beer whitewave?
Or is it ornamental?

enthusiastic hop - sounds a bit too energetic - the kind of thing DGD2 would do and wonder why I am not joining in.

Tegan2 Fri 21-Jul-17 12:31:55

Well, I've cleaned out my utility room [am working through the whole house]. Found two irons, neither of which have been used for at least a year blush. However, I do sometimes have a desire for a linen cupboard full of freshly pressed items [handkerchiefs included].My cupboards and drawers are immaculate as I feel there is no point in things looking good on the outside [my house is a tip!!] if they're hiding a load of unseen mess. I wonder if that reflects on my thinking about other matters?

whitewave Fri 21-Jul-17 10:06:53

ww I've finished mine onto the slow cooker sweet potato curry now grin
Then garden to cut back the enthusiastic hop

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