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Cliff Edge anyone?

(1001 Posts)
whitewave Fri 30-Jun-17 07:31:33

This term gets bandied about in relation to Brexit without any of the consequences attached to it.

I have just done some research/ reading and thought it was time we all had the opportunity to discuss what exactly a "cliff edge Brexit" means and whether it can be taken seriously as a "no deal is better than a bad deal" deal.

So talks have failed and our government decides to go it alone.

It is day one of Britains great adventure

We have no trade deals with the EU or the rest of the world.
The economy goes into recession
We now have in front of us several years of negotiating trade deals both with our potentially biggest customer -Europe and the rest of the World.
Countries like Argentina and others that bear a grudge will block any dealings with the WTO.
Getting exports to Europe will become an absolute nightmare, as even if we have successfully arranged our borders for a post Brexit scenario, Europe has only just begun to get their border controls in place for the flow of goods to and from the UK.
The SE becomes a huge lorry park as good stand waiting to be processed. There is a potential for shortages to occur- particularly in relation to food, as there is only one port in Europe that is set up to deal with this commodity, and that is not yet functioning.
Issues like "country of origin" causes complete chaos for business and everything becomes a bureaucratic nightmare.
Flights are delayed/cancelled until the UK can do its own deals with regard to flight rights.
And of course as we have read only recently, nuclear material will dry up, threatening cancer and other treatment.

References are available on request????

whitewave Tue 01-Aug-17 09:25:29

The University of Amsterdam has done something that our government has singularly failed to do - produced a report on the impact of Brexit on individuals in the UK.

They also have a Brexit information point which keeps everyone up to date with everything that is happening.

Very useful

MaizieD Tue 01-Aug-17 09:25:40

What are WUMs, GG?

Chewbacca Tue 01-Aug-17 09:28:04

No one needs to stay off any thread. All that is required is civility when responding to another's post. It's quite simple. The majority of others are able to do it.

MaizieD Tue 01-Aug-17 09:31:37

*The majority of others are able to do it.^

You're reading a completely different forum from me. chewbacca

whitewave Tue 01-Aug-17 09:39:18

Anybody live in Cornwall? If you do I expect that you are very aware of the huge amount of EU money being spent on things like the road improvements around Bodmin and other such infrastructure investment.

The government will not it says continue with these investment post Brexit. Cornwall will lose on average £60 million pa

GracesGranMK2 Tue 01-Aug-17 09:40:46

Tegan, I think you could say that of any country which thinks it leads the world and then finds itself with the fiscal and societal problems we have. I feel the spark is always the person who can set that country on the course to war and how other countries behave towards them.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 01-Aug-17 09:43:46

What are WUMs, GG?

I think you could ask what being told you are 'spamming the thread' means Maizie and you would get a very similar answer.

durhamjen Tue 01-Aug-17 10:14:15

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-eu-citizens-future-immigration-uk-clarity-economy-workers-gerard-lyons-city-a7870291.html

Primrose65 Tue 01-Aug-17 10:23:08

One of my greatest concerns is the fact that DD [who has studied and taught the era extensively] says that this country is very similar to Germany prior to WWII.
Tegan, I think you could say that of any country which thinks it leads the world and then finds itself with the fiscal and societal problems we have

I totally disagree. The UK is nothing like Nazi Germany before WW2 and I don't think you can apply the 'like 1930s Germany' sticker to any country at the moment.

Penstemmon Tue 01-Aug-17 10:25:15

I voted to remain in the EU.
I appreciate the Leave arguments but do not agree with them. The narrow outcome of the referendum was used by pro leave politicians as a 'carte blanche' to plough ahead with leaving, despite not having a clear idea or end vision to guide their " negotiations" I suspect only a small percentage of voters in the referendum had any real idea of the full consequences of leaving/staying. Now, as the process is underway, and all kinds of unforseens come to light, the electorate is realising it is not the easy route to " getting our country back" (whatever that means!) or deporting / not admitting 1,000s of essential workers. It will be a long and slow process where UK will not always win the hand & where even the Trump card is not a winner.

whitewave Tue 01-Aug-17 10:29:25

The Trump card can't possibly be a winner!!! shock

durhamjen Tue 01-Aug-17 10:32:14

I'd love to know where that small percentage of voters who knew the consequences of leaving are hiding now, Penstemmon, because they are not telling us anything.

durhamjen Tue 01-Aug-17 10:47:12

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-uk-finances-investment-banking-jobs-lose-40000-city-london-eu-european-union-a7870206.html

Elegran Tue 01-Aug-17 10:47:33

Would there be any point telling us now what consequences they foresaw? Telling us again? Telling us "I told you so!" We were told before the referendum by all those experts we were supposed to ignore (Response - What do experts know about anything? Why spend 25 minutes watching a video that explains it all so that anyone can understand - can't be bothered listening for that long. It's boring.)

Now it comes to the crunch, there is no need to be told.

whitewave Tue 01-Aug-17 10:54:24

With regard to exports. SMEs and middling companies have seen a growth in their exports since the value of sterling dropped. This may be seen as less certain post Brexit as there will of course be tariffs to contend with. The loss of negotiated agreements, and of course the port bureaucracy, which will all add to the cost,.

Welshwife Tue 01-Aug-17 11:08:07

I agree about being able to purchase property abroad pre1985 petra - but were you allowed to live in it full time with out visas etc? That is the case for non EU citizens now in France - they either need a visa which needs to be renewed every ten years or only have six months residency per year.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 01-Aug-17 12:02:06

The UK is massively misinformed about the EU.

Primrose65 Tue 01-Aug-17 12:17:27

I remember that from the FT last year. Brexit & bent bananas. It was an article about the crazy fake regulations from the EU.

Mamie Tue 01-Aug-17 12:28:48

I don't think it was nearly as easy to live abroad before the EU and I know lots of people who remember how hard it was to get residence and work permits.
My OH worked for a British company (high-tech) and did masses of consultancy in Europe. He is very well aware of how much easier it all became after the introduction of the single market and Custom's Union.
Not sure why people would want to make it harder for businesses to earn money for the UK economy?

durhamjen Tue 01-Aug-17 12:31:56

Because it's not British, Mamie?

durhamjen Tue 01-Aug-17 12:37:49

Good article by Seb Dance, Labour MEP for London.

labourlist.bluestatedigital.com/page/m/2c9aecb6/13fa0d4e/63f1e5ba/34ad1caf/1474694065/VEsHAw/

durhamjen Tue 01-Aug-17 13:08:09

www.theweek.co.uk/87349/brits-queue-for-four-hours-at-eu-airports

Only going to get worse. The EU is showing us what can happen. This is because we are not part of Schengen.

Welshwife Tue 01-Aug-17 13:21:01

There were a lot more customs checks at the borders too - plus a limit on things you could take across borders - spirits, perfume, cigarettes etc.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 01-Aug-17 13:24:16

It is a good article Jen (Seb Dance) but reading the first comment by someone who calls his fellow human being 'remainiacs' does show some of what he is up against.

I have just been listening to a programme about personal debt which ended with an 'expert' saying that yes, we are the fifth largest economy but so much of it is built on personal debt. I'm afraid I see a perfect storm when we do no longer appear to be a country that can underpin such debt.

petra Tue 01-Aug-17 14:08:01

Welshwife
Yes we did live there full time except for a couple of months in the winter when we went to Spain. We had to get a residency permit every year where we had to show bank statements and private medical insurance.
We weren't working so there was no need for work permits.

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