Unintended consequences of brexit

2 years on and the posts are as predictable as ever.

Some of us voted to Leave , some of us voted to Remain .

The insults are still flying and the denials by those who regularly make them are still laughably visible. Pure irony.

The use of facts , figures , propaganda, are are inevitably promoted to 'try' and make the case either for or against Brexit but look deeper and there will usually be a point or case to make in the opposite direction.

It's just a never ending b----y circle of insults and shouting down debate and just look at the 'copious' threads from the start of the EU Referendum and you could just copy and paste the questions and answers as they are the same now as they were 2 years on.

That's why so few post or bother to post much at all probably .

Seems to me that you need telling MaizieD as your posts are so often unpleasant.
However you are doing your own policing the thread by telling others not to write long posts.
If you find posts tedious then don’t read them.

So predictable, and tedious.

Oh dear, here we go again. We've got the Head Girl back to tell us all how to behave. lemon was just deputizing in her absence...

'Tedious' what an ironic word to use, Ally just before you post 2 essays.

Good posts Allygran and as you say, Airbus have form for this kind of crying wolf.
Am off for a little holiday today, so look forward to a break
Where nobody cares about the EU ☀️

As for Airbus this is an interesting take on it all, it is cut and paste. I do agree with the overall view:
Airbus is a multinational aeroplane manufacturer and aerospace firm, with about 15,000 employees in the UK. Its corporate headquarters are in the Netherlands, its main site is in France, and although it does have other manufacturing sites in other parts of Europe (in Germany and Spain), it also already has sites outside the EU (in China and the US). There’s no intrinsic feature of Brexit that means Airbus has to move.
We should also be sceptical about relocation threats on the “cried wolf” principle. A lot was made about Airbus’s decision to trade in euros in the early 2000s and the threat of relocation then if the UK did not join the euro. It never happened. During the EU referendum Airbus was frequently cited as a firm that would relocate if there were a vote to leave. But in February 2018 the company committed to staying in Britain “long into the future”.
Furthermore, the scenario this “risk assessment” deals with – a no deal Brexit with no transition deal either – is one the UK government says it is committed to avoiding. Indeed, most of the political signals appear to be that the UK government is intent on reconstructing almost all the features of EU membership and will let the EU be seen to “force” it to do what it manifestly wants to do anyway.
However, let us suppose that, somehow, a no deal scenario were to arise. That remains a possibility, not least because the EU may well refuse the UK’s attempt at utter capitulation. Should we think of talk of firms like Airbus relocating as “Project Fear”?
Airbus may or may not mean it this time. But the general lesson Remainers and advocates of the softest possible Brexit want us to learn is that, in the event of no deal, many firms currently located in the UK might move their activities outside. That seems entirely fair to me. A scenario of large tariffs and non-tariff barriers between the UK and EU would lead to significant structural change in the economy — just as joining the EU did in the 1970s.
But what is, crucially, missing from all these discussions of car or aerospace manufacturers or financial firms relocating out of the UK in the event of no deal is the movement in the other direction. As well as the UK-based operations that would move into the EU to escape tariffs and non-tariff barriers, there would also be EU-based operations that would relocate into the UK.
And because the UK imports around €4 of goods and services from the EU for every €3 it exports there, we should expect the flow of firms and investment into the UK, stimulated by no deal, to be much larger than the flow of firms and investment out. It’s just a brute error of basic economics to think that the question is “how bad would a no deal Brexit be for the UK economy in the short term?” In the short-term UK output would gain from a no deal Brexit.
This is a basic point far too often ignored in current debates. Part of the reason Trump has found it tempting to impose tariffs on countries with which the US has a trade deficit is that, in the short-term, such protectionist measures are likely to boost US GDP. Free trade is better for economies in the long term, because it benefits consumers and encourages competition and the free exchange of ideas and innovations, and because trade facilitates friendlier political relations, reducing the economic instability associated with political tensions. But part of the challenge of selling free trade ideas is that when countries are net importers, politicians face the temptation to exploit the short-term boost an economy can get from protectionism.
The UK is a large net importer from the EU. So it follows, as a basic, standard point of economics, that the UK economy should expect to gain, in the short-term, if trade barriers are raised between the UK and EU. Airbus may or may not go in a no-deal scenario, but other firms certainly would. But far more investment and relocation would be inward. Don’t let the “soft Brexit” advocates fool you on that.
Andrew Lilico is an economist and political writer.
capx.co/airbus-project-fear-and-the-truth-about-a-no-deal-brexit/

Varian, don't use the S word please. Remember what happened in Parliament when that word was used.
As for the rest of the argument about yet another "yawn" vote, only the activist's are still after that route. Democracy, democracy, democracy let's uphold those principles and values.

In my household, two voted leave and one voted remain. The remain voter having now read a lot about the EU that he was previously unaware of, and generally, making his own investigations into the failing EU system, he now regrets very much voting remain. Although, as he says at least the majority had some insight into what was really going on.

Why people voted leave or remain in my view is not about intelligence, how do you really measure that, it is about knowledge. That knowledge might have come from the place, the space in which people live and work, their experiences, or it might have come from their interest's in the EU, their work in the EU or their political allegiances. It might have come from simply knowing something about the world market's, the way that one system is good for one era, and not right for the next, it might have been gut instinct. Who knows! The majority voted to leave.

It should also be said, that, and we have had this conversation before Varian, that polls, opinion, or exit, have failed spectacularly over the last ten years, and cannot be trusted in general. But aren't they great to quote to support an argument, you can find one set and I can find another saying exactly the opposite. Again, does it matter what age group, what gender, what education, what political group voters belong to? No! Other than political analysts, activist groups, and the media, no one else is interested, it is academic, the majority voted to leave the EU.

It seems to me, that just some who voted remain, at the political analyst, or political activist level, or those who believe themselves to know better because they went to Uni,or have, or had a good job, or are in academia, or belong to a social group who all think the same way, that somehow, the "others", those who chose to vote leave, must be less intelligent, because that is the only justification for not agreeing with them. Wrong!

What it does say, is that there is a high degree of arrogance, and competitiveness that turns a democratic procedure, like voting into a personal challenge to some, to downgrade the majority through the process of "othering", as well as impugning the majority voters intelligence, and threatening our democracy in the process.

The psychology of this is alarming to put it mildly. The process of "othering", smacks, at the way racism, ageism, and any other ism, begins. It's the 'others" that have caused my discomfort, it's the "others" that can't be trusted, they have a different religion, different colour, different language, different education, they are unintelligent, they don't think like me, they are old, they are sick. Does all this sound familiar, it should it started that way in 1935 in another now EU Country and by 1945 millions were dead, and peoples lives forever irreparably changed.

At least we are civilised enough to know that the debate, heated though it may be, must never spill over into persecution of the "others". Now that would be of massive concern on a completely different level. Since I am one of the "others" in this revolution, let's keep it in the arena of civilised debate not personal attack's of any description.

Such a predictable response to Lemongrove, MaizieD. Do you know how many times you resort to this sort of personal attack. You also might gain from actually reading your post's you always respond with a personal attack, when you can't make your point.
Nigglynellie is right, we just don't bother to post, because the personal attacks from you and others, just get's so tedious. It is almost like talking to a pre programmed person with only one or two points to get over, and over and over. When that does not work the person attack ploy comes into play. So predictable, and tedious.

Be careful what you wish for. I don't want to be someone who ends up saying "I told you so". I would rather be saying "well done for realising you were fooled into making a big mistake".

Some Leavers have already admitted that and the "will of the people" is now to Remain in the EU.

If you don't believe this, then let's have a vote when the terms of the "deal"are known. What have you got to fear????

Just because you wrote a suicide note, it doesn't mean you have to jump off the cliff.

On another forum,where posters don’t pull their punches,
They say, ‘you lost, get over it!’
This constant childish whining about how awful it is leaving the EU and how nasty lowly educated people have now ruined all their lives, gets very tedious.
Presumably it will stop after we have actually left, although I won’t be surprised if it doesn’t.

It is a reflection of English (as opposed to Scottish) education that pupils are channeled into a narrow arts or science choice at an early stage.

This has meant that many English graduates, with good degrees in humanities and arts subjects are functionally innumerate. This often applies particularly to journalists who misquote statistical information with very little understanding of it.

A survey with a sample base of under 5500 on a particular issue that was voted for or against in the millions is grossly insufficient IMO to provide an analysis of the reasons people voted the way they did. So I stand by my earlier post Mazie that it offers an opinion and nothing more.

FFS They were asked how they actually voted! How can that in any way be interpreted as an 'opinion'? It's a fact (unless you think that they lied to the researchers just for the fun of it.)

Survey 'samples' are chosen to reflect the characteristics of the whole population; a sample of 5,000 is plenty big enough if it's properly selected. And I suspect that as I know very little about how samples are selected, and you appear to know even less, this debate is going nowhere except to confirm that the findings of the survey are pretty correct...

Might I suggest that one of the reasons people with a lower standard of education voted to leave was because they had been particularly hit by the influx of migrants taking up jobs, housing and places in schools. Those further up the ladder were in more affluent areas where they were cushioned from these effects.

You can suggest away, loopyloo but immigration is absolutely minimal in the Leave voting area where I live, so that kind of blows that theory out of the window...

If people behave badly MaizieD.......

If people behave badly, lemon, the adult thing to do is to ignore them and move on; not start lecturing them on their behaviour like a bossy schoolgirl.

Project fear no doubt led some remainers up the garden both too.

One of the most influential brexiters has at last started to admit that people were deceived.

Aaron Banks has told MPs probing "fake news" his Brexit campaign had sometimes "led people up the garden path".

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44446632

Mr Banks was the biggest anti-EU donor having given a £6m loan to Leave.EU, a group focusing on immigration controls that he helped found with Nigel Farage. He gave a further £2.1m to Grassroots Out, a separate group, through his Better For The Country Ltd campaigning firm and was one of Ukip’s biggest individual donors.

Not all Remain voters think they are cleverer than Leave voters. There are one or two on this forum who are prepared to accept that many Leave voters are well educated and they recognise that there are groups of significant academics who also think Leaving the EU is the sensible option.

The majority though refuse to accept that interference and resistance by Remain voters is stalling the process and that most Remain voters, peeved that the referendum vote didn't go their way, resort to Project Fear announcements and gloomy predictions for the UK once we break free of the EU.

For those who haven't noticed, I have paraphrased yggdrasil's post, above.

There are two sides to every coin.

A survey with a sample base of under 5500 on a particular issue that was voted for or against in the millions is grossly insufficient IMO to provide an analysis of the reasons people voted the way they did. So I stand by my earlier post Mazie that it offers an opinion and nothing more.

No varian you've "never suggested that all leave voters were poorly educated" but on more than one occasion you have referred to the majority of those who voted remain being well educated. Therein lies the implication that those who voted leave were not as well educated.

Might I suggest that one of the reasons people with a lower standard of education voted to leave was because they had been particularly hit by the influx of migrants taking up jobs, housing and places in schools. Those further up the ladder were in more affluent areas where they were cushioned from these effects.
One reason older people voted to leave was that they could remember that it was possible to live outside the EU.
One argument against the EU is that it creates such dependency that we are unable to legislate for ourselves and everything comes from Brussels.

Why do you think a lot of us don't bother to post any more Lemon?!! As you say [sigh]

Sigh here we go again.

Not all Leave voters are ill-educated. There are one or two on these forums who have made good attempts at explaining why they voted Leave.
The majority, though , resort to claims that everything they are told that is going wrong now is due to Project Fear, and won't take their fingers out of their ears.

I have never at any time suggested that all leave voters were poorly educated, nor have I been rude about them.

I have been critical of Farage and other politicians who told blatant lies, and it is unfortunate that some people believed their lies.

I don't know whether any individual leave voter believed the lies or knew the propaganda was untrue but still decided to vote leave anyway.

If people behave badly MaizieD.........
Varian has been very rude indeed over the last two years about the education/intelligence etc of anyone who voted to Leave.
Our own family , all well educated btw, voted differently, but manage to get along just fine with no recriminations at all, such a pity a forum like this can’t do the same.

The figures which show how people actually voted are not "poll results which are a poor indication of anything", they are detailed analyses made after the vote, such as this study, published in Febrary 2017:-

This information provides much greater depth and detail in explaining the pattern of how the UK voted. The key findings are:

The data confirms previous indications that local results were strongly associated with the educational attainment of voters - populations with lower qualifications were significantly more likely to vote Leave. (The data for this analysis comes from one in nine wards). The level of education had a higher correlation with the voting pattern than any other major demographic measure from the census.

The age of voters was also important, with older electorates more likely to choose Leave.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

posting poll results ( which are a poor indication of anything!)

One day people will learn the difference between an opinion poll and a poll which collects data on what people actually did.

Varian isn't as rude as you, lemon. She doesn't tell people how to behave all the time.

And she deals in facts, not Leavers' fantasies.