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If there was another EU referendum...

(1001 Posts)
Pollaidh Tue 03-Jul-18 18:13:46

Would those who voted Leave still do so? And why? I am genuinely trying to look outside my Remain bubble, but the logic of Leave still continues to elude me. I am asking Gransnet because apparently older people were most likely to vote to Leave.

NfkDumpling Mon 09-Jul-18 06:06:41

(Living in a backwater of the UK, I do miss an awful lot)

petra Mon 09-Jul-18 07:06:35

NfkDumpling
Fewer than 500 young people have applied for Swiss citizenship (in the past year ) since the law changed to ease naturalisation rules for 3rd generation immigrants, despite the fact that 25,000 are in theory eligible for a passport.
Says it all, really, doesn't it.

MawBroon Mon 09-Jul-18 08:41:49

To digress further....

Given that (she) Jura lived in this country for many years, I don't see why she shouldn't express her views without being told, in effect, that she does not have enough experience or knowledge of British culture to voice her opinions

Absolutely Eloethan
This is what Jura accuses many of us of, but while it may in fact be the case that U.K. society has moved on even in the years since Jura retired and moved back to Switzerland, it is not at issue.
What some people, me included, find monotonous (and irrelevant to the issue) is the assumption that “the rest of us” have no insight into the situation in mainland Europe because we told patronisingly that we have only “travelled” there or indeed into the situation on our own doorstep because Jura knows better, having spent her working years in the U.K.

jura2 Mon 09-Jul-18 09:28:09

LOL my comments about Stoke were tongue and cheek of course, but the reality in the early 70s - which was the time you were in Neuchâtel I believe (ah well at least I know who you are... changed name again I see)...

A year or 2 at Uni half a decade ago is not particularly indicative of a country in 2018 ... you are right. And I do not think I know better at all- having said that, you are, it seems, very much an exception from my experience. Those who have lived for extensive periods abroad do, generally, have a much more open mind to differences, and can pick good and bad from comparative systems.

As for the UK, we have very close daily contact, watch UK TV, read UK Press, and visit VERY regularly- as we were lucky to keep a property there. Our DDs and GCs and all OH's family still there. So no, moving to CH 9 years ago has not put blinkers on. As said before we are also so close to France that we are very aware of what is happenig now, and how people are reacting to what is going on in the UK.

Lovely day, so I will LEAVE you to it. Call it doing a DD!

MawBroon Mon 09-Jul-18 09:47:39

No, not the early 70’s. Now remind me, what was your name /were your names?

MawBroon Mon 09-Jul-18 09:48:28

But still dismissing my input I see. <sigh>

Eloethan Mon 09-Jul-18 10:46:54

Did I say the UK was an awful place? I am glad that I live here and I do my best to contribute. However, there is no escaping the fact that many of the things we had that were once so admired throughout the world - eg our NHS and our education system are now so starved of resources that they are failing.

Some of the people who migrate here come from countries with historical links to Britain and/or have had English as their first or second language. I believe English is the official language of more countries than any other language so there are likely to be many more people who have knowledge of it. And, naturally, if you have relatives in a country, you are more likely to be drawn to it yourself. We did have a British empire - the largest and most powerful empire in the world - and that has naturally given us a high profile. It was valued by the British then because it gave us untold access to all manner of natural and human resources.

Other countries also have significant inward migration - not just us.

Jalima1108 Mon 09-Jul-18 12:11:08

^ “the rest of us” have no insight into the situation in mainland Europe^
We have no relatives in Germany but DH's friend has and they are in daily contact so DH gets a weekly update on the thoughts of ordinary German people compared to what we can read in the media.

How prejudiced would we sound if we judged all Swiss people by Swiss bankers? Or the racist and xenophobic attitudes reported in Switzerland?
Or the fact that Swiss football thugs attacked a British player in Berne?

It's not all Heidi, mountains and chocolate as Oprah Winfrey found out when she visited.

But we take a balanced view that everywhere has its good and its bad sides.

varian Mon 09-Jul-18 12:28:59

The EU is not (yet) an awful place, but our economy has since the Eu referendum sunk to the bottom of the league.

GDP growth, 2018.

Ireland: 4.5%
Poland: 4.2%
Turkey: 4.2%
Hungary: 3.9%
Ukraine: 3%
Austria: 2.9%
Sweden: 2.7%
Spain: 2.7%
Netherlands: 2.6%
Portugal: 2.3%
Germany: 2.1%
France: 1.9%
Norway: 1.9%
Greece: 1.8%
Denmark: 1.8%
Belgium: 1.7%
Russia: 1.7%
Italy: 1.3%
UK: 1.3%

twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1015615068774416384

Alexa Mon 09-Jul-18 13:55:34

www.statista.com/statistics/518395/eu-referendum-voting-intention-in-uk-by-social-class/

Alexa Mon 09-Jul-18 14:02:31

[Davies uses philosopher Nancy Fraser’s complementary ideas of recognition and redistribution: people need economic security (redistribution), but they need dignity, too (recognition). Malrecognition can be so psychically painful that even those who knew they would suffer economically may have been motivated to vote Leave. “Knowing that your business, farm, family or region is dependent on the beneficence of wealthy liberals,” writes Davies, “is unlikely to be a recipe for satisfaction.”

It was in this context that the political campaign for Leave penned the slogan: “Take back control.” In sociology we call this framing, a way of directing people to think about a situation not just as a problem, but a particular kind of problem. “Take back control” invokes the indignity of oppression. Davies explains:

It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect.]

jura2 Mon 09-Jul-18 14:13:12

Jalima, perhaps you do not read replies. You seem to have missed this post yesterday:

I am very proud of so many things British, but not THAT. Why do you think I get so upset about what is being done to the NHS, Social Services, the education system, and so much more- and currently the very essence of what is best about the UK, open-ness, tolerance of others and differences, care for special needs ... where the UK was head(s) above most, perhaps all, including France, Italy, Switzerland and Germany, just to quote those I know most.

Jalima1108 Mon 09-Jul-18 14:17:40

[sigh]

Allygran1 Mon 09-Jul-18 15:35:23

Jura2. A very long cut and paste NHS stats and opinions:
NHS statistics, facts and figures
tablet showing graphs
14/07/2017 10:00:00

Get the facts behind the headlines with our compilation of key NHS statistics. The NHS facts and figures apply to England, unless otherwise stated. This data was last updated in July 2017.

NHS funding

NHS net expenditure (resource plus capital, minus depreciation) has increased from £78.881 billion in 2006/071 to £120.512 billion in 2016/17.2 Planned expenditure for 2017/18 is £123.817bn and for 2018/19 is £126.269bn.3
In real terms the budget is expected to increase from £120.512bn in 2016/17 to £123.202bn by 2019/20.4
Health expenditure (medical services, health research, central and other health services) per capita in England has risen from £1,879 in 2011/12 to £2,106 in 2015/16.5
The NHS net deficit for the 2015/16 financial year was £1.851 billion (£599m underspend by commissioners and a £2.45bn deficit for trusts and foundation trusts).6 The provider deficit for the 2016/17 financial year has been confirmed at £791m.7
The most recently published national surveys of investment for mental health found there had been real terms reductions of 1 per cent for working age adults and 3.1 per cent for older people in 2011/12.8 CCG investment in mental health was £9.148bn in 2015/16 and a planned £9.500bn in 2016/17.9

Providers and commissioners of NHS services

There are in England:

207 clinical commissioning groups10
135 acute non-specialist trusts (including 84 foundation trusts)
17 acute specialist trusts (including 16 foundation trusts)
54 mental health trusts (including 42 foundation trusts)
35 community providers (11 NHS trusts, 6 foundation trusts, 17 social enterprises and 1 limited company)
10 ambulance trusts (including 5 foundation trusts)11
7,454 GP practices12
853 for-profit and not-for-profit independent sector organisations, providing care to NHS patients from 7,331 locations13

NHS staff

In March 2017, across Hospital and Community Healthcare Services (HCHS), the NHS employed (full-time equivalent): 106,430 doctors; 285,893 nurses and health visitors; 21,597 midwives; 132,673 scientific, therapeutic and technical staff; 19,772 ambulance staff; 21,139 managers; and 9,974 senior managers.14
There were 10,934 additional HCHS doctors (FTE) employed in the NHS in March 2017 compared to March 2010 (11.45 per cent). In the past year the number has increased by 2.29 per cent.15
There were 3,910 more NHS nurses and health visitors (FTE) across HCHS in March 2017 compared to seven years earlier (1.39 per cent). In the past year the number has increased by 0.18 per cent.16
There were 2,197 more ambulance staff in March 2017 compared to seven years earlier (12.50 per cent). In the past year the number has increased by 7.48 per cent.17
There were 145 fewer psychiatrists across all grades (FTE) in March 2017 than March 2010 (1.64 per cent decrease). Over the same period there has been a decline in the number of mental health nurses of 5,161 (12.63 per cent).18
There were 5,027 more qualified allied health professionals (FTE) in March 2017 compared to March 2010 (8.51 per cent). However the number of qualified healthcare scientists has declined over the same period, with the FTE number in March 2017 2,388 below that of March 2010 (9.16 per cent).19
54.06 per cent of NHS employees across HCHS are professionally qualified clinical staff, as of March 2017. A further 29.89 per cent provide support to clinical staff in roles such as nursing assistant practitioners, nursing assistant/auxiliaries and healthcare assistants.20
In March 2017, 61,934 EU staff were working across HCHS – equivalent to 5.22 per cent of the headcount. This equates to 57,737 FTE, which is 5.51 per cent.21
Between March 2010 and March 2017 the number of professionally qualified clinical staff across HCHS has risen by 5.89 per cent.22
In March 2017 there were 33,423 full-time equivalent GPs (excluding locums), which is a reduction of 890 (2.59 per cent) on March 2016.23
In September 2016 there were (full-time equivalent): 15,827 nurses in GP practices; 10,009 GP direct patient care staff; and 65,334 admin/non-clinical staff. While the number of nurses in GP practices had increased by 429 (2.79 per cent) since September 2015, the number of practice nurses declined by 67 (0.57 per cent) over the same period. 24 Data from before 2015 is not directly comparable.
An NHS Partners Network survey shows that more than 69,000 individuals are involved in providing front-line services to NHS patients among their membership. Approximately two-thirds are clinicians.
Medical school intake rose from 3,749 in 1997/98 to 6,262 in 2012/13 - a rise of 67.0 per cent.25 7,112 graduates were accepted on to foundation programmes across the UK in 2016.26

Management

Managers and senior managers accounted for 2.97 per cent of the 1.048 million FTE staff employed by HCHS across the NHS in March 2017.
The number of managers and senior managers has increased in the past three years, having declined in each of the previous four years. However the number in March 2017 (31,113) remains below 18.90 per cent below that of March 2010 (38,365).27
In 2008/09 the management costs of the NHS had fallen from 5.0 per cent in 1997/98 to 3.0 per cent.28

International comparisons

In comparison with the healthcare systems of ten other countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and USA) the NHS was found to be the most impressive overall by the Commonwealth Fund in 2017.
The NHS was rated as the best system in terms of safe care, affordability and equity. It was also ranked first in the 'care process' category, which encompassed preventive care, safe care, coordinated care and engagement and patient preferences.
In the category of health care outcomes, the NHS fared less well (10th). However the researchers did find that the UK achieved the greatest decline in mortality amenable to healthcare between 2004 and 2014 (37 per cent). 29
Current health expenditure in the UK was 9.75 per cent of GDP in 2016. This compares to 17.21 per cent in the USA, 11.27 per cent in Germany, 10.98 per cent in France, 10.50 per cent in the Netherlands, 10.37 per cent in Denmark, 10.34 per cent in Canada, 8.98 per cent in Spain and 8.94 per cent in Italy.
Current expenditure per capita (using the purchasing power parity) for the UK was $4,192 in 2016. This can be compared to $9,892 in the USA, $5,551 in Germany, $5,385 in the Netherlands, $5,199 in Denmark, $4,644 in Canada, $4,600 in France, $3,391 in Italy and $3,248 in Spain.
The UK had 2.8 physicians per 1,000 people in 2016, compared to 4.1 in Germany (2015), 3.9 in Spain (2015), 3.8 in Italy (2015), 3.5 in Australia (2015, est), 3.4 in France, 3.0 in New Zealand (2015) and 2.7 in Canada (2015).
The UK had 2.6 hospital beds per 1,000 people in 2015, compared to 8.1 in Germany, 6.1 in France, 3.2 in Italy (2015), 3.0 in Spain, 2.8 in the USA (2014), 2.7 in New Zealand (2016) and 2.6 in Denmark (2016).
The UK had 0.4 psychiatric care beds per 1,000 people in 2015. This compares to 1.3 in Germany, 0.9 in France, 0.4 in Canada, 0.4 in Denmark (2016), 0.4 in Spain, 0.2 in the USA (2014) and 0.1 in Italy.
Average length of stay for inpatient stays in the UK was 7.0 days in 2015. This compares to 29.1 in Japan, 10.1 in France (2014), 9.0 in Germany, 7.8 in Italy, 7.3 in Spain, 6.2 in the Netherlands, 6.1 in the USA (2014) and 5.4 in Denmark (2016).30

Patient experience and public opinion

In the 2016 Care Quality Commission inpatient satisfaction survey 86 per cent of almost 72,000 respondents rated their overall experience as 7 or more out of 10.
84 per cent felt that they were always treated with dignity and respect while using inpatient services.
83 per cent felt the specialist had 'definitely' been provided with enough information about their condition by the person that referred them.
98 per cent felt their hospital room or ward was 'very' or 'fairly' clean.
83 per cent and 80 per cent 'always' had confidence and trust in the doctors and nurses treating them respectively.31
65 per cent of respondents to the CQC's community mental health services survey for 2016 rated their experience between 7 and 10 out of 10.
70 per cent 'definitely' felt listened to carefully and 56 per cent 'definitely' felt as involved as they wanted to be in agreeing the care they received. Both of these percentages were unchanged on the previous year's community mental health survey.32
In April 2017, 95.79 per cent of 205,417 inpatients treated by NHS trusts and foundation trusts would recommend their provider to friends or family (25.9 per cent response rate). For 16,017 inpatients treated by independent sector organisations, the proportion was 98.78 per cent (39.0 per cent response rate).
In April 2017, 88.68 per cent of 16,396 patients that used mental health services would recommend their provider to friends or family. In the same month, 95.73 per cent of 97,267 patients using community services would recommend their provider in the same way.33
Aggregated GP Patient Survey results from January-March 2017 found that 84.8 per cent of respondents rated their overall experience at the GP surgery as 'very good' or 'fairly good.'
82.8 per cent felt their GP was good at treating them with care and concern. 72.7 per cent rated their overall experience at making an appointment as good.
66.3 per cent stated their overall experience of out-of-hours GP services was good.34
In the 2016 British Social Attitudes survey, 63 per cent of respondents were ‘very’ or ‘quite satisfied’ with the NHS, whereas 22 per cent were ‘very’ or ‘quite dissatisfied. This compares to 60 and 23 per cent respectively in 2015 and all-time peaks of 70 (2010) and 50 per cent (1997) respectively.35

NHS activity

The NHS deals with over 1 million patients every 36 hours.36
In 2015/16 there were 40 per cent more operations ('procedures and interventions' as defined by Hospital Episode Statistics, excluding diagnostic testing) completed by the NHS compared to 2005/06, with an increase from 7.215m to 10.119m.37
There were 16.252m total hospital admissions in 2015/16, 28 per cent more than a decade earlier (12.679m).38
The total annual attendances at Accident & Emergency departments was 23.372m in 2016/17, 23.5 per cent higher than a decade earlier (18.922m).39
The proportion of patients seen within 4 hours at A&E departments in 2016/17 was 83.7 per cent in major (type 1 units) and 89.1 per cent overall.40
The total number of outpatient attendances in 2015/16 was 89.436m, an increase of 4.4 per cent on the previous year (85.632m).41
In the 2016 calendar year, 507,784 NHS patients were admitted to independent providers for their elective inpatient care. There were 891,717 referrals made by GPs to independent providers for outpatient care during the same period.42
There were 1.826m people in contact with specialist mental health services in 2015/16. 103,027 (5.6 per cent) spent time in hospital.43
There were 21.034m outpatient and community contacts arranged for mental health service users in 2014/15. Between April and November 2015 there were a further 13.685m contacts arranged for service users.44
63,622 people were detained under the Mental Health Act in 2015/16, 8.9 per cent higher than 2014/15.45
There were 2.643m category A calls (Red 1 and Red 2) that resulted in an ambulance arriving at the scene in 2016/17.46
68.7 per cent of Red 1 ambulance calls were responded to within eight minutes in 2016/17.47
At the end of April 2017, there were 3.783 million patients on the waiting list for treatment. 382,618 (10.1 per cent) had been waiting for longer than 18 weeks, compared to 302,901 (8.4 per cent) at the same point in 2016.48
The number of patients waiting longer than a year for treatment declined from 20,097 in September 2011 to 214 in November 2013, before increasing again. In April 2017 the number stood at 1,573. Over the past three years, the number waiting in excess of 26 weeks has increased from 60,402 in April 2014 to 136,030 in April 2017.49
90.5 per cent of people with non-admitted pathways were treated or discharged within 18 weeks of referral in April 2017, compared to 92.1 per cent a year earlier.50
In April 2017, 72.5 per cent of service users who had completed their care pathway were seen within two weeks of referral under the new Early Intervention in Psychosis access standard. This compares to 65.0 per cent in April 2016.51
At the end of April 2017, 885,876 patients were on the waiting list for a diagnostic test. Of these, 1.8 per cent had been waiting in excess of six weeks.52

Health and population

Life expectancy for English men in 2013-15: 79.4 years.53
Life expectancy for English women in 2013-15: 83.1 years.54
The UK population is projected to increase from an estimated 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 69.0 million by 2024 and 72.7 million by 2034.
The UK population is expected to continue ageing, with the average age rising from 40.0 in 2014 to 42.9 by 2039.
The number of people aged 60 and over is projected to increase from 14.9m in 2014 to 21.9m by 2039. As part of this growth, the number of over-85s is estimated to more than double from 1.5 million in 2014 to 3.6 million by 2039.
The number of people of State Pension Age (SPA) in the UK exceeded the number of children for the first time in 2007. By 2014 the disparity had declined to 0.2 million. The ONS currently projects that this situation will have reversed by 2019, with 0.5 million more children than those at SPA, but will then revert back by 2029 with 0.5 million more pensioners than children.55
There are an estimated 3.0 million people with diabetes in England (2016).56
In England the proportion of men classified as obese increased from 13.2 per cent in 1993 to 26.9 cent in 2015 (the highest proportion over the period), and from 16.4 per cent to 26.8 per cent for women over the same timescale (the joint highest for the period covered with 2014).57
The proportion of boys aged 2-10 classified as obese has increased from 9.7 per cent in 1995 to 14.1 per cent in 2015 (compared to a peak of 17.4 in 2006) and for boys aged 11-15 the proportion has risen from 13.9 to 17.8 per cent (peak of 24.3 in 2004) over the same period.58
The proportion of girls aged 2-10 classified as obese has increased from 10.6 per cent in 1995 to 11.4 per cent in 2015 (peak of 17.4 in 2005). However for girls aged 11-15 the proportion has actually declined from 15.5 to 14.8 (falling from a peak of 26.7 in 2004) over the same period.59

suzied Mon 09-Jul-18 15:45:24

Am I the only one not to understand the point of the above post?

varian Mon 09-Jul-18 15:47:15

No you're not suzied - it looks like an attempt to bore folk away from the subject.

MaizieD Mon 09-Jul-18 15:49:22

No, you're not, suzied.

I think the letters 'NHS' acted like a trigger to some sort of Pavlovian reaction...

Allygran1 Mon 09-Jul-18 15:52:47

Alexa can you provide the link to your "sociology" quotes in your post: Alexa Mon 09-Jul-18 14:02:31

Thanks

Also, your link without comment: Alexa Mon 09-Jul-18 13:55:34
www.statista.com/statistics/518395/eu-referendum-voting-intention-in-uk-by-social-class/
This was pre Referendum.

paddyann Mon 09-Jul-18 15:53:21

is Brexit likely to happen now Boris has resigned to ? Rats and sinking ship springs to mind .When can we expect a general election ?

Allygran1 Mon 09-Jul-18 15:58:23

Suzied information based on facts are challenging, I do understand that, but there are people who might be interested to see "wart's an all", the facts about the NHS as against the 'feelings' that some put forward as fact.

Allygran1 Mon 09-Jul-18 16:11:18

paddyann, it might not have occurred to you that the Prime Minister is attempting to negotiate with an organisation that is intransigent and has trapped us and other's in a system that is virtually impossible to escape from. In the interest's of protecting and honouring the Belfast agreement, the White Paper is designed to ensure that the people of Northern Ireland's interest's are not sold out by a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, just to make an easy Brexit.
Honourable integrity, protecting the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland, against all the resistance and pressure from the EU to every proposal.

suzied Mon 09-Jul-18 16:20:22

Still not clear what the point of huge list of "facts " that no one will give more than a cursory glance at. Probably too challenging eh?

Grandad1943 Mon 09-Jul-18 16:46:05

Allygran1, where has that huge list of statistics in regard to the NHS have relevance to a thread about a second referendum on Britain leaving the European Union????

As you have been asked several times, please explain so forum members can respond

Allygran1 Mon 09-Jul-18 17:02:13

Jura2 you said: "Those who have lived for extensive periods abroad do, generally, have a much more open mind to differences, and can pick good and bad from comparative systems".

What I find difficult to deal with in this statement is just how narrow the thinking behind it must be. Your assumption that unless one has lived and worked " for extensive periods" in other Country's that one cannot have an "open mind to differences" nor can one distinguish between "good and bad in what she calls "comparative systems". Well, clearly it has not been the case for the poster if she can make this sort of generalisation.

In most of our Towns and City's across the UK, we have multicultural communities, from Jamaica, Barbados, China, America, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, India, Pakistan, Poland, Russia, Armenia, Somalia, and I could go on. Many of whom are fourth generation British Citizens, who have enhanced the culture of the places in which they reside and work. In some Schools in the inner cities there are upwards of 30 plus foreign languages spoken as a first language.

People travel abroad for work, holidays, extensive travel for business and pleasure. For those who do not and have not travelled outside of the UK, how does not mean that they are cut off from the outside world as you imply? It does not affect their ability to analyse information and facts, and come to a decision on 'comparative systems". As you see on this site, the mostly deep engagement of people, on all sort's of international, political topics, showing that the world they live in is not narrow and restricted, and that their mindset is expansive, they may have had 'extensive" time in other Country's, they may not. Access to instant world news, information, views and opinions, means that people are not restricted having to work or travel to know what is going on in the outside world.

You say that those who live for "extended period" abroad "generally, have a much more open mind to differences, and can pick good and bad from comparative systems". Generalisation is the most dangerous type of thinking. The assumption and presumptions of generalisation, by the nature of generalising ensures, that the statement must be both right and wrong at the same time, therefore cannot be relied upon.

Allygran1 Mon 09-Jul-18 17:03:54

Grandad, it is a response to Jura2 post. So ask Jura!

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