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Likely consequenses of brexit

(830 Posts)
varian Tue 03-Jul-18 20:40:02

If brexit happens, as I fear it probably will, the consequences, both intended and unintended, are likely to damage this country to an unprecedented extent.

As it is the most important political issue of our times, I believe we should continue to discuss it on GN, but we must be prepared for a continuence of the blind unreasoning dogma we have had so far from the little band of brexitextreemists on GN who will just keep their fingers in their ears.

Even so, I think it is important to continue to seek out the truth. We owe it to our children and grandchildren.

Grandad1943 Fri 17-Aug-18 17:34:57

Yes, Jeremy Hunt very much did change his interpretation of that statement in twenty four hours, and I am wondering what could have brought that about. Could it be that he did not want to begin yet another row in the Tory party on top of what is already going on over Islamaphobia, a leadership challenge, whether we should have a no deal walk away Brexit, or continue on with the shambles of trying to put together a coherent agreement to the EU negotiators that will never be approved by the Tories in the country or many in parliament.

Before anyone states that there are similar rows in the Labour party, I would agree there are. However, the Tory Party are supposed to be the party of "strong and stable government" and therefore rows in that party affect all of us, while rows in the Labour party do not.

Of course, there are those on this forum who would have us believe that all is sweetness and light in the Conservative party.

varian Sat 18-Aug-18 14:02:26

Leading disability activists have backed The Independent’s call for a referendum on the final Brexit deal, as the number of people signing the Final Say petition surged past 600,000.

With the prospect of a no-deal Brexit looming, groups representing disabled people have joined a variety of politicians and organisations in supporting the case for a public decision on the final deal. In an open letter to The Independent, disability campaigners, including former Olympic star Tanni Grey-Thompson and a string of leading academics, warn that the “chaotic, uncertain and discordant” atmosphere surrounding the Brexit negotiations could be “psychologically damaging” for disabled people.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/final-say-brexit-disability-disabled-nodeal-independent-a8486021.html

There is surely something quite perverse about politicians who chose to disregard dire warnings from every section of society, and knowing how much harm could be done still persist in this brext-at-any-cost lunacy.

Joelsnan Sat 18-Aug-18 14:21:37

varian
There is surely something quite perverse about politicians who chose to disregard dire warnings from every section of society, and knowing how much harm could be done still persist in this brext-at-any-cost lunacy

Maybe they are aware of things that others are not party to.

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 14:42:47

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lemongrove Sat 18-Aug-18 16:49:23

France needs to decide on how they treat UK citizens that have lived there for a long time.The UK has already promised all EU workers living here that there will be no problems and that they can stay.
Bureaucracy in France works very slowly.

MawBroon Sat 18-Aug-18 17:02:26

So it is a French problem not a U.K. post-Brexit one.
Just wondering why they haven’t applied for French citizenship?
Several people I know are using Irish grandparents or great grandparents to get Irish passports and others I know working in Germany are applying for German citizenship.
As it happens, Hattie has an Irish EU Pet Passport!

Welshwife Sat 18-Aug-18 17:27:01

French Citizenship in some areas is long and drawn out and since the freedom of movement they have not issued a Carte de sejour or similar. Of course now they are inundated with applications with some areas more so than others. Some Prefectures are not even giving out appointments as a bit far into the future.
The French Govt have said that U.K. passport holders will be OK if they are in the system - ie registered to pay tax etc. This will catch out all the people who have lived in France for years but never registered for paying tax or the health service etc. Surprisingly many have lived in France for years but still go back to U.K. for NHS care - ridiculous really as better treatment in France and faster and much of it free even if you have no top up insurance.

MawBroon Sat 18-Aug-18 17:28:48

Cut and pasted Jura?
Did the ^ ^ not work ?

Jalima1108 Sat 18-Aug-18 17:37:46

I am a little confused
But were born in Jersey - so they are British citizens; however the Channel Islands have a special status as they belong to the group called the 'special territories' - many of which are French, Dutch as well as English.

The islands do not participate in the freedom of movement of labour, and as a result their citizens are not entitled to work or reside within the EU unless they are directly connected (through birth, or descent from a parent or grandparent) with the United Kingdom. After five years continuous residence in the United Kingdom, islanders are entitled to participate in the freedom of movement of labour or services throughout the EU

There may be many people from various British 'special territories' so the UK and EU will have to sort out their status - or, in this case, the country where they reside and wish to gain nationality will have to expedite their cases.

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 19:12:37

MN Just wondering why they haven’t applied for French citizenship?

so you have not actually read her post, have you? Yes, in this case, it just had to be copied and pasted- sometimes it is the only way. And it is not a lengthy pages and pages of different bits from different sources. So I believe it is acceptable. GN will of course decide if you report it.

Rules are clear about applying for nationality - and in the past, it was just not necessary. Now to get a simple Carte de Séjour, and for nationality- the waiting list is many months in many areas of France- and that is entirely due to Brexit.

And yet, some of you will still not think about the plight of that poor woman - and prefer to continue to have a go at me instead. It is meh, really meh sad

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 19:42:11

So much more important, is the wish of Farage to return to stir up the al right, EDL and BF included, into civil unrest.

^Ex-Met terror chief: 'Extreme right infiltrating politics'

The Metropolitan Police's former head of counter terrorism, Mark Rowley, has warned that "aggressive intolerance" is finding its way into mainstream political debate.

Talking to BBC Newsnight he said it was important to ensure extremist groups could not "generate credibility and present themselves as representatives of white Britain or Muslim Britain."^
Nos THAT is seriously worrying.

lemongrove Sat 18-Aug-18 19:43:38

I wouldn’t dream of reporting a long cut and paste job jura but you now doing a long cut and paste is ironic.

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 19:59:45

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MawBroon Sat 18-Aug-18 20:21:18

Jura would I be right in thinking this case is from one of your ex-pat websites?
It is very hard to express an opinion about a third party and I still do not understand why after 20: years in France she and her family have not sought citizenship unless of course being citizens of Jersey gave them additional tax advantages as I think Welshwife suggests.
It seems to me you have to at some point make a commitment and if circumstances change for the worse so be it.
You are going to call me heartless but I find it hard to get worked up about somebody of whom I know next to nothing when there are other much more serious issues.

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 20:31:34

Mamie did explain before- British citizens in the EU, even those who spent their entire adult life there, did not apply for citizenship because there was just no need- at all. Being EU citizens was sufficient- and gave them all the rights and conditions they needed, so why should they have done? I did apply for British citizenship, because pre EU, and pre bilateral agreements - not being a UK citizen made life really difficult and complicated - in 1972.

Why is it not possible to understand the stress, difficulties and real fears of a third party who explains her situation clearly?

The good news is, that someone who is very knowledgeable read her post and was able to point out that there was a loophole, as her family had strong connections to UK and that should help solve some of the issues.

But do read her situation again - re proving financial independence and long wait for appointments re applying for naturalisation.

As said, this was just one illustration among 100s of 1000s in similar situations, worried sick about what will happen to them.

And yes, it is heartless not to care for your fellow citizens who are finding themselves in really difficult situations, and find their health, sleep, stress levels, really affected.

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 20:33:08

Some have husbands/wives/children who are really sick- othershave lost their husband or wife. I would have thought you would understand how this, combined with the above- would make things really tough and difficult. It is bad enough without, no?

Welshwife Sat 18-Aug-18 20:38:08

I was not suggesting anything about the woman Jura quoted but if you do belong to any of the groups of Brits you will see people starting to panic as you need at least 5 years of tex returns to get any length of Carte and ten years is better. Those with only a couple of years get a much shorter length on the carte.
Paying French tax is the best proof as you pay into the French social security system - albeit a very small amount. Once you register for tax you are ‘fiscally resident’ in France. The paperwork you need to produce is massive really - utility bills, house taxes etc etc and proof of income and that it will be continuing.

MawBroon Sat 18-Aug-18 20:40:59

Enough.
I entirely refute your accusation of heartlessness and have no idea why you have decided to pick on me (or lemongrove) in this instance.
1)I am not responsible for Brexit.
2) No amount of bleating or pearl clutching is going to make the slightest bit of difference
3) OK I am sorry for this lady - I cannot even say “your friend” as she seems to be just one other name from a website about which I know nothing and frankly care less
4) But there are people who are much worse off
5) I cannot shed crocodile tears about some possibly even hypothetical case so please leave me out of it.

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 20:49:56

Being 'left out of it' is entirely your choice. Just do not comment - if you comment- you are part of the discussion, and will be responded to.

And again, that word 'bleating' is so offensive- as for the pearl clutching - meh where on earth?

The battle re Brexit is very much alive, and so is the kind of Brexit. Some of us will keep fighting, whether you agree or not.

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 20:52:49

YOU mentionned the 'heartless' bit- I would not have ever said this. Again, if you use words or ideas in your posts- they will be picked up and responded to.

Are you actually saying that I have made the story up? Really?

petra Sat 18-Aug-18 21:03:41

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MarthaBeck Sat 18-Aug-18 21:11:19

Some extremely interesting views. Without taking sides may I ask how can we trust our politicians to make the right decision.? Particularly when their views are already mainly made up by dogma and prejudices or party loyalty?
How do we the electorate accept any decision we do not believe is in the UK interest, if we do not participate in that decision making?

jura2 Sat 18-Aug-18 21:22:02

Indeed MarthaB.

petra, please let us be clear here- just so that there is NO mis-understanding. Are you actually calling me a liar? Your turn of phrase is a bit strange.

Joelsnan Sat 18-Aug-18 21:31:20

MarthaBeck
Particularly when their views are already mainly made up by dogma and prejudices or party loyalty?
How do you know that?
One can never know full facts of any such discussion and many facets of discussions should not (for security and expediency) be in the public domain. No negotiator worth his skin would put all of his/her cards on the table and yet this is what a number of unwise Brits appear to want to do. There would never be a concensus of approval if this was the case and UK would spiral into further torment.
At the end of the day, these are our elected representatives, by voting for them we have entrusted them to strive for a decent outcome (like them or not).
My only real concern is those elected politicians who even at this late stage would confound the will of the people, making us a political laughing stock and endangering the ability to negotiate from a strong and resilient position.

Grandad1943 Sat 18-Aug-18 21:49:34

The EU negotiators are tied by the four freedoms that are the basis of the European Union treaties and they cannot deviate from that in their talks with Britain in regards to the leaving terms. Therefore it is for the UK to negotiate a way through that or "crash out" of the European Union without even a customs agreement with all the consequences that will have for the British economy for many years to come.

In terms of negotiations I would not describe the above as a strong and resilient position from a British perspective