Likely consequenses of brexit

I forgot palpable inertia

Amazing we can so something right eh Petra

That was before the disastrous referendum which has cause our economy to sink from the fastest growing in the EU to the bottom of the league.

KPMG are not even waiting for the final deal to move staff out of UK. Other major banks/financial institutions are ready.

FT global motor industry correspondent Peter Campbell examines how a 'hard Brexit' would hit Jaguar Land Rover and other carmakers with plants in the UK, and how tariffs and border controls could encourage use of factories in Europe and elsewhere.

www.ft.com/video/bd296cbf-8f6d-4435-9fc5-848fae8649c6

From 'Le Monde' today :

Boris Johnson's 'Fuck business' is likely to turn into 'Fuck Brexit UK'

I think we can call this man an expert.
Joseph Stieglitz, former chief economist of the world bank said the euro zone had failed to enhance solidarity and advance the goal of European integration.
Germanys ongoing rule and Italy's growing anger could leave the eurozone in tatters.
If one country does poorly, blame the country, if many countries are doing poorly, blame the system.
The eurozone was supposed to bring shared prosperity, which would enhance solidarity and advance the goal of European integration. *in fact it has done the opposite, slowing growth and sowing discord.
Must be true, it was in the Guardian.

Theresa May has apparently persuaded her cabinet to go for a soft Brexit. The proposal is a EU/UK free trade area.

May said that the cabinet had “agreed our collective position for the future of our negotiations with the EU”. That included a proposal to “create a UK-EU free trade area which establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products” after Brexit.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/06/theresa-may-secures-approval-from-cabinet-to-negotiate-soft-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

I’m happy with that. But I bet the EU will turn it down.

On the other hand Nfk the EU have plenty of other problems to sort out and may be glad to accept this.

Well, if they do they do! It will confirm that they will never agree to anything!

What I have read from the initial reports, the cabinet has agreed to accept virtually all EU current regulations in exchange for "frictionless cross-border trade" in goods. Therefore Britain will accept legislation from the European Union without having any input into that jurisdiction which will affect each and every person in the UK.

Therefore, if initial reports of the cabinet agreement are correct Britain seems to have given up a large amount of influence in Europe Union to find itself still very much tied to that structure in almost all it does.

Of course, Theresa May still has to get this agreement passed the Conservative Brexit hardliners in the House of Commons and the EU Negotiators, but assuming she can achieve that at least British industrialists and business in general, will have something to plan to for their futures and the future security of their employees.

It’s a start. Almost a Common Market!! If it does get through and accepted all round, and goes through, it can always be tweaked in the future. We’re trying to do something which has never been done before. It won’t be right first time, and who knows what the future holds for the EU anyway. It has a lot of problems.

Does anyone really think that Boris et al have rolled over? Accepting this document is just another strategic step in their mission for what’s in their own best interests. What they must be hoping for is that the EU will reject it ( or significant chunks of it), this will fuel even greater hatred of the EU and many people will then accept the inevitable Hard Brexit which is in the interests the wealthy minority alone.

I saw a report yesterday - but I cannot remember the source- that the EU have done the trade deal with Japan. Unsurprisingly these days I did not see/hear it on the U.K. news.

Grandad1943
As I read the 'report' we have agreed to accept the rulebook as it stands but any new rules introduced will be debated in parliament and could very well be rejected.
Let's hope that if this is the way it goes all our MPs will look closely at the changes and not just nod them through so they can leave early.

petra, as I understand the agreement to be put forward to the EU, Britain will accept the existing "European rulebook" as it stands but any changes to that legislation can be debated by the UK Parliament and rejected if desired.

However, in the above case, the European Commission or the European Parliament would have the right to terminate the whole agreement with Britain in such a scenario. That would leave Britain trading under WTO regulations and the "frictionless border trade" so essential to British industry would immediately be a thing the past.

Therefore, I believe that any future government would have to think very carefully before rejecting any new European Union regulations.

“It's a mess, aint it Sheriff?

If it aint it'll do till a mess gets here.”

― Cormac McCarthy, No Country for Old Men

]
I don’t often get a laugh on these threads, but that’s a good one!

However, in the above case, the European Commission or the European Parliament would have the right to terminate the whole agreement with Britain in such a scenario. That would leave Britain trading under WTO regulations and the "frictionless border trade" so essential to British industry would immediately be a thing the past

Precisely, grandad!

I don't know what is so difficult to understand about this. The EU is a regulatory body. That is what makes 'frictionless trade' possible within the Single Market. The only way that we can change the regulations is by being in the EU with a voice at the table. They will not accept deviation from the regulations from a third country (which is what we will be when we leave) . We can change as many regulations as we like by Act of Parliament but deviation from EU regs. means end of trade with Europe in whatever goods/services that have had their regulations changed. They will only accept our goods/services if they conform to EU regulatory standards.

Maizie d Fri 06-Jul-18 11:26:30 to POGS

" You might not like it, but, as you are a Leaver, I'm sure you'll understand if I suggest that you just 'suck it up'. "

You :-

A. Owe me an apology for lying , I did not vote Leave.

B. Make the irony of telling another to ' suck it up ' when you have rebuked that comment so many times pure hypocrisy.

Oh, grow up, POGS. this isn't the school playground.

'Lying' FGS, You make whole series of posts which appear to be trying to prove that Leavers' 'reasons' for voting Leave were justified; then dislike the inference that you were a Leaver and have a hissy fit...

If this is all just a big intellectual exercise game for you than I'm not playing any more.

Bit of snowflakery going on again from the right I see.

Maizie d and Maryeliaza

" Bit of snowflakery going on again from the right I see."

" Oh, grow up, POGS. this isn't the school playground. "
-

Any more for any more, surely at least 4 more to come.

If I lied about you and ' stated' you had voted Leave I am sure you both would have said not so much as a whisper. As it stands Maizie d did state an ' untruth' and I note no apology will follow. I expected as much!

I did not vote Leave but as a Remainer I do play devils advocate especially when I see posts that either can be disengenuous or have an opposite slant.

As for being a snowflake on the right that is a joke when I voted Remain but according to both of you that means I am intelligent, follow politics and must be one of the club not a ' Brexshitter' as has been used to denote Leavers before.

The Guardian one hour ago.

Harmonisation on goods
The statement says the UK will “maintain a common rulebook for all goods” including agricultural products after Brexit, with the UK committing via treaty on continued harmonisation, thus avoiding border friction.

Brexit means beef fillet: how May's day at Chequers played out
Read more
Parliament would have oversight of such rules, it adds, and can choose to not continue harmonisation “recognising that this would have consequences”. However, the proposal says protections in areas such as the environment, employment laws and consumer protection would not fall below current levels.

The arrangement would see looser arrangements for services, with a recognition this will involve less mutual access to markets than currently.

Joint jurisdiction of rules
The plan proposes what is termed a “joint institutional framework” for interpreting UK-EU agreements, to be carried out in each jurisdiction by the respective courts. However, decisions by UK courts would involve “due regard paid to EU caselaw in areas where the UK continued to apply a common rulebook”.

The system would include joint committees, or binding independent arbitration in the case of disputes, which would have reference to the European court of justice (ECJ) “as the interpreter of EU rules”.

New customs deal
The government statement puts forward the idea of the so-called facilitated customs arrangement, May’s new attempt at a compromise system that could be acceptable to her cabinet Brexiters and to Brussels.

This would see the UK and EU avoid hard borders by being treated as a “combined customs territory”. Under this, the UK would apply domestic tariffs and trade policies for goods intended for the UK, and their EU equivalents for goods heading into the EU.

This would, the document says, let a post-Brexit UK set its own tariffs for trade with the rest of the world without causing border disruption. The statement says the new arrangements would prevent a hard Irish border, ensuring the “backstop” elements of the initial withdrawal agreement would not be needed.

Overall aims
The statement ends by saying the plans, along with details to be set out in next week’s planned white paper, represent “a precise and responsible approach to the final stage of the negotiations”, giving frictionless trade in goods along with regulatory flexibility for services.

The plan, it adds, would still give the UK an independent trade policy, with the ability to set its own non-EU tariffs and to reach separate trade deals. It also promises to end the role of the ECJ in UK affairs.

Theresa May faces Tory anger over soft Brexit proposal
Read more
Such a deal would end the automatic free movement of people into the UK from the EU but include a “mobility framework” allowing easy movement for work or study.

What it will really mean
Beyond whatever objections and modifications the EU might present, the statement is broad enough to be open to significant interpretation by ministers of various Brexit hues, not to mention backbench Conservative MPs.

While the plan states it has not breached any of May’s stated red lines, it is a distinctly soft variant of the proposed Brexits on offer and, even if it is not amended or ditched, outside pressure could place different interpretations on the terms stated. This is version one.

First version, long way to go, but something to test the water, both here in the UK and Parliament and with the EU chap Bernier, who is saying that if Theresa May is less rigid on her red lines, then he will less rigid with his red lines.

Of course the White Paper is out next week, so more then. This article is only the Guardian version but it is the latest as far as I can see.