Brexit

Petra your post about Turkey is probably one of the biggest stories that we should be watching.

This is a cut and paste about the contagion crisis:

Euro slips after reports the ECB is concerned about exposure to Turkey
•The euro fell half a percent against the dollar after reports that the ECB officials are concerned about European banks' exposure to Turkey.
•Data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) showed that Spanish banks are due $83.3 billion by Turkish borrowers; French lenders are owed $38.4 billion; and banks in Italy are owed $17 billion, the FT reported.
•Perhaps, more importantly, the European Union (EU) relies heavily on Turkey to contain the flow of migrants trying to reach Europe.
Concerns are mounting that the decline will start to hit European banks. The Eurozone’s chief financial watchdog has become increasingly concerned about the exposure of some of Europe's biggest lenders to the country. They include BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas, and the exposure to those lenders is being closely watched, the Financial Times reported.
The risk of contagion saw the euro fall by 0.5% against the dollarto $1.1471 at 10.15 a.m. BST (5.15 a.m. ET) on Friday.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan and his newly appointed finance minister Berat Albayrak are due to speak at 2 pm local time today. Erdogan has promised a new economic model driven by his son-in-law and new finance minister Albayrak.
Erdogan spoke briefly on Thursday night and alluded to problems with the currency, saying that "various campaigns" are underway, adding: "If they have dollars, we have our people, our righteousness and our God."
Hordijk said in an email: "President Erdogan is the elephant in the room... It is time for Erdogan to face reality.”
A "gigantic rate hike" of at least 500 basis points to calm markets and a clear commitment from the Central Bank of Turkey to support the currency could help halt the decline, Hordijk said, adding: "Another bandage to stop the lira from bleeding to death would be capital controls, but Erdogan opposes these measures.
"A painful admittance that his powers are outmatched by the forces of markets and that he may have misjudged the economic situation may be a lot to ask of the autocratic leader Erdogan, but the alternative is that the lira will meet the ground at terminal velocity; an impact that will damage the Turkish economy for years to come," he said.

www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/european-officials-reportedly-concerned-about-exposure-to-turkey.html

Big trouble looming in the EEA and that might drag us into it because we are still attached. Even the US is open to contagion from this.

The BOE have just done a stress test for the Banking system let's hope this sort of thing was factored into the system. BOE said we can cope with anything I hope the Governor is right this time. He get's a lot wrong about Brexit predictions!

what a lot of nonsense
Which bit. Your lack of knowledge Re the lira or your snobbery.

Just re- read the post to Varian. I apologies to any socialist who may have read this. I meant to say far left. Socialism and the extreme far left are not the same in my book.

Sincere apology. I was typing very quickly and did not express myself well on that point.

*Allygran.
Exactly!! And some posters think that the euro is ok because the lira has nothing to do with it, you have to laugh at such ignorance. I've know for over 2 yrs now that certain posters who voted to remain read absolutely diddly squat about Europe, let alone the world economies.
This crisis has the potential to be worse than Greece. But unlike then there's no more money left in the pot to help out Spain, Italy, and France. Well there might be for France as they toe the party line
And I'm the know nothing thick Mail reading leaver.
That's their opinion. But thank goodness I know how many beans make 5

Petra that makes two of us "thick Mail reading" leavers that know how many beans make 5.

This economic crisis has the potential for Worldwide contagion as you pointed out. The Brexit negotiations might also be affected, I think you said that as well.

This is definitely one to watch. Erdogan seems to have lost the plot. The EU have been promising entry to the EU and giving him a special deal until that happens, but it seems only because Turkey is acting as a 'border barrier' to keep the migrant refugee's out of Europe. So much for sharing caring and free movement EU. Don't dirty their own hand's let Turkey do it for them.

Why? The Turkish lira is not part of the euro.
There may be an article in tomorrow's Daily Mail about it, varian so that you can extend your knowledge about Turkey (but for goodness' sake, don't look at the online version!). You could get a free copy if you go to Waitrose - they may put it in an unmarked brown envelope for you if you ask nicely.

The Daily Mail and the 'unmarked brown envelope' is the best laugh I have had all day Jalimal! Excellent!

The dwindling number of Brexitiers will cling onto any straw in the vain hope that the European Union will "fall apart" and therefore their dark forebodings of the need for Britain to leave will be proved justified.

We have all heard these predictions regarding an imminent EU collapse over the so-called crisis in Greece, Spain, Italy, the Euro, the French elections, the German elections to name but a few.

However, the European Union is still there with its economic growth well ahead of the UK, bringing shock and horror to the Brexitiers.

As the growing number of opinion polls are demonstrating, the British public has had enough of this Brexit madness and now realise that staying in the EU would be the best way to secure the future of the UK both economically and politically.

Oh, jalima
If you could only see how that made me laugh out loud.
Brown paper bag, absolutely brilliant ?????

I don’t think many who voted Leave on here ( or in RL) are ‘dwindling’ at all: what is mistaken for that is the desire to see it all done as fast as possible.
Good one Jalima and if you ask nicely they may slip the brown envelope inside a copy of The Guardian, to be doubly protected!

Lemon!!?????

Forgive me Grandad, but your comments are 'rubbish'!!

Grandad have you read the Daily Mail today? Great idea of lemongrove to get the newsagent to slip it inside a copy of the Guardian! [giggle].

Financial contagion across the EEA as the Turkish Lira is nose diving. The Euro and the EU financial authority are particularly concerned because Italy who is already struggling, is heavily exposed to the Turkish lira collapse due to high lending to Turkey. Italy are not the only EEA Country exposed, France, Germany are amongst other lenders across the World who will be affected. The UK is less exposed.

As you say the EU is still there. But your report is incorrect.
You say:
However, the European Union is still there with its economic growth well ahead of the UK, bringing shock and horror to the Brexitiers.

The UK growth is up on the EU new figures show.

I would cut and paste, just don't have the time today, sorry!

Daily Mail 11th August 2018. If the DM have it, then I am sure the Guardian and the FT will have picked up on it.

Oh! Grandad should also report that the UGov poll put's Tory Government ahead of the Labour Opposition by 4 point lead. Never sure about polls, but of all of the pollsters UGov seem to be the most reliable and professional.

UK growth outstrips Eurozone. UK food and drink exports smashed sales records by hitting 10.6billion in the first six months, and increase of 4% in the same period last year.
etc^ Daily Mail today.

Allygran1, those reports are from the Daily Mail. Personally, I would not be seen dead with that rag or quoting anything from it.

They and other pro-Brexit newspapers are absolutely desperate as their tax haven owners watch their dream of an Britain impoverished following Brexit slip away as the nation "rumbles" their propaganda lies

Those owners hope to see the UK become yet another tax haven for their wealth which along with almost all of the millionaire Brexit supporting Tory MPs has already been moved offshore in front of Brexit

So much for putting your money where your mouth is.

I would not be seen dead with that rag
ask for a brown paper bag Grandad
or wrap it in The Guardian.

The Turkish problems are proving troublesome for the Eurozone and European banks.
www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/aug/10/uk-growth-figures-gdp-house-of-fraser-business-live

Here we go again, now it's Turkey that will bring down the European Union. That follows the so-called crisis in Greece, Spain, Italy, the Euro, the French elections, the German elections to name but a few.
All of which we were told would be the end of the EU.

It seems to be a question of who's Project Fear wins...

Oh dear, I didn't say that - but it is causing a wobble in the financial markets Grandad.
Or were you not aware of that?

I did say Eurozone - do you know the difference?
Perhaps not, or else you wouldn't have said what you did.

Here we go again, now it's Turkey that will bring down the European Union.
If you say so Grandad

That would be a pity.

Perhaps it is time that everyone forgot the propaganda put out by the leave campaign and we all start to listen to those in industry who really know just what the effects of not having a customs agreement with the EU on Brexit will mean for all of us living in the UK

The Road Haulage Association (RHA) is the representative body for over 50% of companies that operate heavy vehicles on Britains roads and also into the European Union

RHA chief Executive Richard Burnett gave out the following press report just under two weeks ago which I feel is well worth reading.

The RHA Chief executive statement begins here:-
On tuesday 24 July, MPs in the House of Commons were heard to repeat ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

But for the 7000+ members of the Road Haulage Association who, between them operate nearly 50% of the UK’s 496,000 lorry fleet (and the UK haulage industry as a whole), the prospect of a future without a Brexit deal looks extremely bleak.

A no-deal Brexit will create massive problems for international hauliers – whether UK or mainland Europe based. It is time for a reality check.

Since the prospect of leaving the EU became a reality in June 2016, the Road Haulage Association has been campaigning tirelessly to get the best deal for its members. It is essential – for the people and businesses of mainland Europe and Great Britain that the current system of frictionless borders continues.

For supply chains, customs controls and the controlling of lorry movements the key issues. Should there be no deal and customs controls are established for UK hauliers at every European border, the knock-on effect will be crippling.

According to RHA chief Executive Richard Burnett, “The Dover Strait handles 10,000 lorries each day and processing them through the port is currently seamless.

“The stark reality is that if customs controls are put in place, it will take an average of about 45 minutes to process one truck on both sides of the channel. If that happens then the queues of HGVs in Kent will make the jams seen in the summer of 2015 appear as little more than waiting for the traffic lights to change.”

In March this year Transport Secretary Chris Grayling MP said:“We will maintain a free-flowing border at Dover, we will not impose checks at the port, it is utterly unrealistic to do so. We don't check lorries now, we're not going to be checking lorries in the future.I’m clear that it cannot happen.”

But what about the French?

If they put customs processes in place in March 2019 to check all lorries traveling between the UK and the EU hauliers will be faced with the prospect of coming over to the UK and having to wait for days – even weeks, before they can return home. This will be a huge deterrent to them making the journey at all.

50% of food consumed in the UK’s comes from around the world – of which 70% comes from the EU.

It is not just customs, ECMT* permits for lorries to carry goods internationally will be required. For UK operators these are limited to less than 5% of the number of licences currently issued. If that scenario becomes reality, most UK operators will unable to go and get the goods themselves. Without special arrangements EU operators will also need to use ECMT permits.

British hauliers that make international journeys will be forced out of business, causing irreparable damage to the supply chain. The foods we take for granted, oranges from Spain for example will become an expensive luxury. Supply and demand for basic foodstuffs could even mean the introduction of food rationing. Is this just scaremongering? No. Could it be the death knell for the thousands of hauliers that deliver 98% of the UK economy?

A Brexit without a deal will put thousands of HGV drivers out of a job and millions without the food they have come to expect. With just over 6 months to go until the UK leaves the EU, the time for political grandstanding is over. UK hauliers need practical solutions to resolve practical problems. :-
The RHA Chief Executives statement ends here

The other large road transport organization representing such companies as the UK's Supermarkets and food producers etc is the Freight Transport Association who have been making similar statements to the above in recent weeks

jalima
Some posters get confused when trying to defend the indefensible.
Where's varian, busy moving her money out of European stock markets now that she's been made aware that it's not looking good.

I believe the only people getting confused now are those still trying to defend Brexit

If Brexit is such a great idea for the U.K. how come the £ takes a nosedive every time there is the possibility of there being a no deal Brexit? Not a problem if you’re invested in the right hedge funds of course. But a big problem when 50% of your food is imported and you don’t manufacture anything much anymore. Reality is beginning to dawn - Brexit won’t make a huge difference to your life but it will make you poorer. ( unless you’re very wealthy with the right investments when you will be better off)