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If there was another EU referendum Part 2

(186 Posts)
Bridgeit Mon 06-Aug-18 18:13:14

Shall we Carry on girls ? Or should that be ladies & Grandad Do we have the stomach for it ?

varian Mon 06-Aug-18 18:15:14

Lets just exit from brexit

www.gransnet.com/forums/news_and_politics/1251042-Exit-from-Brexit

Bridgeit Mon 06-Aug-18 18:24:33

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸ‘‹

MaizieD Mon 06-Aug-18 19:13:59

Not particularly, thanks, Bridgeit. I'm getting very bored with regurgitated hogwash.

Though I'll leave a copy and paste for you. From Facebook.

These are all the trade deals the UK now has through the EU. When we leave all of these will fall and have to be renegotiated. Bearing in mind that we have very few trade negotiators and that trade deals usually take a number of years to conclude, and that the reason countries go for trade deals is because they give them better terms than WTO (otherwise, why on earth would they bother) I'm curious to know what we're going to make of these:
(it's a bit long, I'm afraid but it seems that long c & p posts are completely acceptable these days)

A List of Countries the U.K. has Free Trade Agreements and Preferential Trading Agreements with as a member of the E.U.
________________________________________________

Next time somebody is trying to tell you that remaining in the EU is an insular way of seeing things and that leaving the EU somehow allows us to β€˜make our own trade deals and trade with the rest of the world’, you might like to show them this list of trade deals we have right now as a member of the EU team.

Of course, these are on top of the 27 free-trade deals we have with our EU partners and 4 free-trade deals we have with our EFTA colleagues (Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein & Switzerland).

All deals that the U.K. negotiated from a position of strength over 45 years within the world’s most powerful trade negotiation team, the EU, and that’s according to the US team.

In trade negotiations, a very important part of your negotiation stance is the size of the market you can offer access to. The EU can name its price regarding safety, security and processes required by importers by in turn offering them access to a market of 512 million developed consumers for complying.

Outside the EU, the U.K. will only be able to offer 65 million consumers, and that immediately gives us a much weaker hand in getting the standards we require. Foreign importers will simply be prepared to offer less for access to a smaller market.

Less desire to trade with the U.K. means a lower need for Sterling and therefore the pound loses value, making foreign imports more expensive for British consumers to buy. Many foodstuffs, goods and services cannot be made or grown here, so we must pay more, or do without.

The question isn’t about the UK getting β€˜a deal’, it’s more to do with what those deals are like and how long the U.K. must sell and trade at a significant disadvantage whilst those inferior trade deals come into effect.

Of course, after Brexit, the UK will be in direct competition with the powerful union of the EU and its firms. Since we are no longer a partner, they, and corporations all over the world, will be keen to seize our sales and market share, especially while we are so vulnerable.

Nor are all trade deals the same. The simpler ones, worth less, or which see the U.K. desperate and somewhat over-a-barrel are quick, usually taking 2-3 years. The more valuable ones worth more take about a decade.

The EU’s trade deal with Canada (CETA) took 8 years, was goods only and required a Canadian trade negotiation team of 864 negotiators. The U.K. has less that 20 negotiators in total to negotiate goods and services deals with some 217 nations and territories across the world, and very little time to waste.

The EU on the other hand has been building trade relationships since 1957, and we have been a part of this since 1973, some 45 years which has seen us deeply involved with our partners in building smoother supply chains, greater speed and security, higher levels of safety and more streamlined bureaucracy in all aspects of our global trade.

Nor do β€˜they need a deal with us as much as we need a deal with them’. The U.K. market accounts for only 2-3% of the EU 27’s global sales, whereas the EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement just signed accounts for one-third of all global GDP.

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Types of EU trade agreement
There are three main types of agreements:

Customs Unions
These eliminate customs duties in bilateral trade and establish a joint customs tariff for foreign importers

Association Agreements, Stabilisation Agreements, (Deep and Comprehensive) Free Trade Agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements
These remove or reduce customs tariffs in bilateral trade.

Partnership and Cooperation Agreements
These provide a general framework for bilateral economic relations, but leave customs tariffs as they are.
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EU Agreements in Place:

Albania (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 2009

Algeria
Association Agreement
In force since 01/09/2005

Andorra
Customs Union
In force since 01/01/1991

Armenia
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
In force since 09/09/1999

Azerbaijan
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
In force since 1999

Bosnia and Herzegovina (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/06/2015

Botswana (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Chile
Association Agreement and Additional Protocol
In force since 01/03/2005

Egypt
Association Agreement
In force since 01/06/2004

Faroe Islands
Agreement
In force since 01/01/1997

Georgia
Association Agreement
In force since 01/07/2016

Iceland
Economic Area Agreement
In force since 1994

Israel
Association Agreement
In force since 01/06/2000

Jordan
Association Agreement
In force since 01/05/2002

Kosovo (UNSCR 1244)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/04/2016

Lebanon
Association Agreement
In force since 01/04/2006

Lesotho (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/04/2004

Mexico
Global Agreement
In force since 01/10/2000

Moldova
Association Agreement
In force since 01/07/2016

Montenegro (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/05/2010

Morocco
Association Agreement
In force since 01/03/2000

Mozambique (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Namibia (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Norway
Economic Area Agreement
In force since 1994

Palestinian Authority
Interim Association Agreement
In force since 01/07/1997

Russia
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
In force since 01/12/1997

San Marino
Customs Union
In force since 01/04/2002

Serbia (Western Balkans)
Stabilisation and Association Agreement
In force since 01/09/2013

South Africa
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

South Korea
Free Trade Agreement
In force since 01/07/2016

Swaziland (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
In force since 05/02/2018

Switzerland
Agreement
In force since 01/01/1973

Syria
Co-operation Agreement
In force since 01/07/1977

Tunisia
Association Agreement
In force since 01/03/1998

Turkey
Customs Union
In force since 31/12/1995

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EU Agreements Partly in Place:
These are countries and regions that have part (but not all) of their agreements in place with the EU. The agreement is fully applied when all parties have ratified the agreement.

Antigua and Barbuda (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Armenia
Updated Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
Provisionally applied since 06/2018

Bahamas (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Barbados (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Belize (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Botswana (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016

Cameroon (Central Africa)
Interim Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2014

Canada
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
Signed 30 October 2016, provisionally applied since 21/09/2017

Colombia (with Ecuador and Peru)
Trade Agreement
Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

CΓ΄te d'Ivoire (West Africa)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 03/09/2016

Comoros (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied

Costa Rica (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Cuba
Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement
Provisionally applied since 1/11/2017

Dominica (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Djibouti (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied

Dominican Republic (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Ecuador (with Colombia and Peru)
Trade Agreement
Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

El Salvador (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Eritrea (ESA) Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied

Ethiopia (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not yet provisionally applied

Fiji (with Papua New Guinea)
Interim Partnership Agreement
Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011

Ghana (West Africa)
Stepping stone Economic Partnership Agreement provisionally applied
Provisionally applied since 15/12/2016

Grenada (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Guatemala (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Guyana (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Haiti (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Haitian ratification still pending

Honduras (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Jamaica (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Kazakhstan
Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
Provisionally applied since 01/05/2016

Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Zimbabwe (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, provisionally applied since 2012

Papua New Guinea and Fiji
Interim Partnership Agreement
Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011

Namibia (SADC)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016

Nicaragua (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Panama (Central America)
Association Agreement with a strong trade component
Signed 29/06/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

Papua New Guinea (with Fiji)
Interim Partnership Agreement
Ratified by Papua New Guinea in May 2011

Madagascar (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, provisionally applied since 06/2011

Peru (with Colombia and Ecuador)
Trade Agreement Signed 26/07/2012, provisionally applied since 2013

South Africa
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 10/10/2016

St Kitts and Nevis (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

St Lucia (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

St Vincent and the Grenadines (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Sudan (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not provisionally applied yet

Suriname (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Trinidad and Tobago (CARIFORUM)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Provisionally applied since 2008

Ukraine
Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.
Associate Agreement Signed 29/05/2014, provisionally applied since 01/01/2016

Zambia (ESA)
Economic Partnership Agreement
Signed 08/2009, not provisionally applied yet

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Agreements Pending:
In some circumstances trade negotiations with a trade partner have been concluded, but have not been either signed or ratified yet. This means that although the negotiations have finished, no part of the agreement is in place yet.

Burundi (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Has not signed or ratified agreement

Japan
Economic partnership Agreement
Negotiations started 01/03/2013, concluded December 2017, awaiting signature

Kenya (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Signed and ratified, provisional application when all EAC countries sign and ratify

Rwanda (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Signed, provisional application when all EAC countries sign and ratify

Singapore
Free Trade Agreement
Subject to CJEU opinion 2/15, awaiting signature

Tanzania (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Has not signed or ratified agreement

Uganda (EAC)
Economic partnership Agreement
Has not signed or ratified agreement

Vietnam
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations concluded December 2016, expected to enter into force in 2018

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MaizieD Mon 06-Aug-18 19:14:29

Continued:

Agreements Being Updated:
The EU has trade agreements in place with these countries/regions, but both sides are now negotiating an update

Azerbaijan
Update of Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
Negotiations began February 2017

Chile
Modernise trade part of Association Agreement
Negotiations began 16/11/2017

Mexico
Modernisation of Global Agreement
β€˜Agreement in principle’ on the trade part reached in April 2018

Morocco
Update of Association Agreement to create a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area
Negotiations began 01/03/2013, on hold since April 2014

Tunisia
Update of Association Agreement to create a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area
Negotiations began 12/10/2013

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Agreements Being Negotiated:
Agreements currently under negotiation

Argentina (Mercosur)
Mercosur Association Agreement
Negotiations resumed May 2010

Australia
Australia Agreement
Negotiations launched in June 2018

Bahrain (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Brazil (Mercosur)
Mercosur Association Agreement
Negotiations resumed May 2010

China
EU-China investment agreement
Negotiations started 21/11/2013

India
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 2007, last round in 2013

Indonesia
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 01/09/2016

Kuwait (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Malaysia
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started October 2010, paused since April 2012

Myanmar
Investment protection agreement
Negotiations started 2015

New Zealand
New Zealand Agreement
Negotiations launched in June 2018

Oman (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Paraguay (Mercosur)
Mercosur Association Agreement
Negotiations resumed May 2010

Philippines
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 01/12/2015

Qatar (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Saudi Arabia (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

Thailand
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 01/03/2013, no negotiations scheduled since 2014

United Arab Emirates (GCC)
Free Trade Agreement
Negotiations started 1990, suspended since 2008

United States of America
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
Negotiations started 2013, paused until further notice 2016

Uruguay (Mercosur)
Mercosur Association Agreement
Negotiations resumed May 2010

Venezuela
Mercosur Free Trade Agreement
Suspended as Mercosur Member
No automatic alt text available.

MaizieD Mon 06-Aug-18 19:16:13

Sorry, forgot to post the link:
www.facebook.com/thebritishumpire/posts/1833872070035175.

Joelsnan Mon 06-Aug-18 19:20:51

www.gov.uk/government/policies/free-trade

Joelsnan Mon 06-Aug-18 19:24:20

I would imagine that the government knows what business is done with each of these countries and is in negotiation with none EU partners to develop seamless trading links.

lemongrove Mon 06-Aug-18 19:30:33

Oh MaizieD .....a post which is very very long! grin
I don’t mind that, but you usually do ( unless it’s written by yourself of course.) wink

lemongrove Mon 06-Aug-18 19:33:24

Some seem to think that only a Labour ( or make that a Trotskyist) government would have the ability to make deals.
The sky is falling in is the mantra of choice.

bee63 Mon 06-Aug-18 19:34:57

It’s been done to death all over the Internet. What more is there to say?

lemongrove Mon 06-Aug-18 19:46:18

You are right of course bee at the moment there is nothing new to say.

Bridgeit Mon 06-Aug-18 20:13:08

Well I admire your dedication to the topic MaizeD , I do hope you had a large glass of wine after posting, I am enjoying one now as I troll through your exceptional post 🍷cheers x x

Jalima1108 Mon 06-Aug-18 20:46:23

It’s been done to death all over the Internet. What more is there to say?
You're right - and us saying anything at all will not make a jot of difference

Or should that be 'we'? Was that grammatically correct?
confused
No doubt someone will put me into Pedants' Corner.

Jalima1108 Mon 06-Aug-18 20:48:23

The EU’s trade deal with Canada (CETA) took 8 years, was goods only and required a Canadian trade negotiation team of 864 negotiators.
Does that prove that the EU is unnecessarily bogged down in bureaucracy?

Jalima1108 Mon 06-Aug-18 20:48:52

Oh, I just realised that I said more
wink

NfkDumpling Mon 06-Aug-18 20:53:10

Good point Jalima

crystaltipps Mon 06-Aug-18 21:29:00

Why do some people think that those who criticise the current bunch of numpties that call themselves a government support the opposition bunch of numpties?

petra Mon 06-Aug-18 21:35:14

jalima
That's 30.857 per country!!!
Bureaucracy, what bureaucracy.

lemongrove Mon 06-Aug-18 22:55:08

Because crystal amazingly, there are a few on GN who do support the opposition bunch of numpties.

varian Tue 07-Aug-18 10:45:06

A clip has emerged from 2011 in which the MP for North-East Somerset called for a second referendum on the terms of a deal with the European Union.

In the clip from a Houses of Parliament debate, Mr Rees-Mogg said: "You could have two referendums and as it happens, it may be more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed."

www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obrien-jacob-rees-mogg-second-referendum/

humptydumpty Tue 07-Aug-18 10:49:59

As per 'Exit from Brexit' thread, I urge anyone who hasn't done so already and who wants a second referendum to sign the People's Vote petition:

www.peoples-vote.uk/people_s_vote_petition_smashes_targets_with_over_125_000_signatures_in_48_hours

MaizieD Tue 07-Aug-18 11:11:41

Does that prove that the EU is unnecessarily bogged down in bureaucracy?

I assume you are saying that Jalima from your position of being an expert in trade negotiations?

Even if we had only half that number how many do you think we'd need for renegotiating all the trade deals listed? And do you think that the UK has that many with the necessary expertise?

We had a discussion about PFI a while ago when it was noted that our civil servants, being nor very experienced at negotiating such deals, were shafted by the big companies who were experienced. I suspect we could find ourselves in a similar situation with trade deals.

I'm sure that we do have people who are competent at negotiating trade deals; they will have formed part of EU negotiating teams, but on their own I very much doubt that there are enough of them.

yggdrasil Tue 07-Aug-18 11:18:59

Joelsnan: I would imagine that the government knows what business is done with each of these countries and is in negotiation with none EU partners to develop seamless trading links.

I wouldn't imagine the government as a whole has any idea what business is done with whom. And the person (Liam Fox) who is supposed to be doing these negotiations isn't, and is now saying we will crash out.

The only sensible thing now would be to cancel the whole Article 50 thing, and go on as we were, until such time as we have someone in a position to negotiate with enough information to make sense.

MaizieD Tue 07-Aug-18 11:56:40

I would suspect that a number of these countries are rubbing their hands with glee and thinking that they can renegotiate deals with the UK to get more advantageous terms, such as a loosening of the standards required by the EU (hormone fed Australian beef?) And the UK, being in the position of supplicant, because we need those deals, with a far smaller market to offer, and not to mention not having enough experienced negotiators, are likely to cave in.

Of course, all that an happen now is preliminary talks because we can't actually negotiate and sign deals until we leave the EU.