Exit from Brexit

This morning we have more dire warnings from Hammond about the effect of "no deal", that depends what you mean by no deal.
If there is no agreement on Brexit which is quite likely there will have to be agreement on what happens now, there will have to be a period when current regulations apply, a transition.

We are not going to see changes in border control immediately, the crunch will come gradually when new arrangements take effect. After any transition we become a "Third Country" that's when it will hurt.

No government is going to prevent trucks carrying food or medicine from crossing the channel, it is the UK doing the customs checks, the EU still want to supply us food they have no interest in any restriction.

Whatever politicicians say, I don’t believe many people swallow it hook line and sinker ( on any side) but what we have here ( with exiting the EU ) is a can of worms.....the politicians being the worms.
Once both the LP and the Conservatives had upheld the referendum decision, however tricky negotiations were going to be, most assumed that they would all pull together
For the good of the UK.
That hasn’t happened.The hard Brexiters within the Conservatives are going all out to wreck things, the ultra Remainers within the Conservative Party are doing the same and the LP have abandoned any notion of trying to support any deal with the EU at all, by saying they will not agree to (virtually) anything, simply because they are trying to force a GE to get Corbyn into power, that matters more to them than the good of the country.The Lib Dems are going all out to block us leaving at all.
If all the politicians had pulled together on this and put the UK first instead if their own egos and hunger for power then we would have been in a very good position indeed!

Your absolutely right lemon. This saga has certainly shown beyond a shadow of doubt what shallow charlatans our politicians are on all fronts. I would never have believed how completely appalling and dishonest they all are with the exception of, imo, Mrs May who, again imo, has done her very best in the face of diabolical disloyalty, dishonesty, and treachery, and that's just her own party!! As for the LP, words fail me - shambles might go a little way to describing them, the liberals?!! Just out to wreck! All out for their own ambitions no thought for the good of the UK! And we accuse the Commission!! Our own MP's on all sides are as bad if not worse. Either mad or bad, you can take your choice!!

^that depends what you mean by no deal.
If there is no agreement on Brexit which is quite likely there will have to be agreement on what happens now, there will have to be a period when current regulations apply, a transition.^

No deal means exactly what it says no deal. That is, nothing is agreed between the UK and the EU.

Which means that on Brexit day; the day when we leave the EU, we are regarded by the EU as a third country and are treated as such. Read the EU's 74 notices to stakeholders on exactly what that entails. They've been available for many months.

There will only be a period when the current regulations apply if we have an agreement with the EU for a transition period and we know that a transition period is dependent on agreement of the Withdrawal Agreement.

There appears to be a 50:50 chance of 'no deal'. It would be so calamitous that many people don't think it's possible that anyone in govt. would let it happen. Looking at the record of this government over the past few years I wouldn't be that confident...

Sorry,formatting failure in previous post.

I agree, Lemon and Nigglynellie. The way our politicians have behaved is appalling; quite frankly it beggars belief. Schools are trying to instill 'British values' in our children. You would have thought our leaders should set an example. If the whole thing wasn't so serious it would make a brilliant comedy act.

Are we talking about the way politicians have behaved after the referendum or are we including all the lying and cheating that went on before the referendum?

My point was that in or out a deal will be done, it has to, life will go on

If a deal is done similar to a Norway or Swiss model there will be strings where we obey conditions dictated by EU.
I do not believe Parliament in it present mood will accept that, which is a Soft Brexit by any other name.

If no agreement on Brexit day it will be up to the UK and EU customs authorities to decide what is allowed to cross borders.

The EU may well decide to restrict goods leaving the UK

The U.K is not going to restrict essential goods coming in, particularly food and medicine, politicians can be stupid but not that crazy

The U.K is not going to restrict essential goods coming in, particularly food and medicine,

What a field day that will be for smugglers and producers of counterfeit drugs and substandard foodstuffs. I can't wait...

Maisie

I didnt say they would not check for contraband as they do now. I am saying essential supplies will not be held up by UK customs.

And the counterfeits and substandard foods?

Should the UK leave the European Union without a customs agreement then a "freight manifest" will have to be drawn up for every HGV vehicle crossing into and out of Europe. That manifest will be linked to the seal placed on the vehicle at the final dispatch point before the vehicle arrives into a port.

The amount of import/export tariff owed to Britain or the EU will then be calculated on checking the manifest against the seal number at the port or physically checking the freight on the vehicle if it is felt necessary.

The EU has stated it will be checking vehicles entering Europe from Britain in the above way. However, the British government have stated that they will not be checking or delaying vehicles entering the UK through the ports from Europe. That begs the question, how will the customs be able to assess the import tariff owed to Britain if no port inspection is carried out.

Should it be that tariffs are unable to be collected due to no checks being carried out, then Britain would lose possibly billions each week in revenue which would compensate for tariff revenue owed by the Britain to the EU.

At present all involved in the UK Road Haulage Industry believe that the the British governments position on HGV port entry is nothing short of "utter nonsense" and unworkable.

There are still a few on here with a touching naivety when it comes to the potential calamities of Brexit. Just to spell it out; there may be a transition period if we have a soft or even a hardish Brexit but if we crash out next March with no deal, that is it; no transition. One day EU member, next day third world. This is getting ever more serious and still people put their fingers in their ears, and sing la-la-la and then mither on about irrelevant, banal things. Simply put, other than a declaration of war, this is the biggest single economic and political decision made by this country, please at least show a bit of interest, especially if you voted for Brexit. This isn't just something that will affect 'other people' or part of 'project fear', it is real, it is looming and by this time next year you will be wondering how the hell this happened.

I agree Gill.

National suicide. But just because we (37% of the electorate) wrote a suicide note, it does not mean that we have to jump off that cliff.

Grandad

There can be no tariffs on essential goods in the transition period, that will all have to negotiated. You cannot hold up essentials that would cause chaos, any government that does that would fall.

It is indeed the biggest decision since WW2 and I think we will be worse off, if there was a second referendum I would vote stay, at present the chance of that is slight but you can never say never.

But hey guys, a soft Brexit may be agreed and we stay in the EU in all but name

Diana54, there will only be a transition period if there is any sort of "a deal" on Britain leaving the European Union

No deal and Britain becomes a third party nation to the EU on the 20th March 2019. From that date, we trade with Europe under World Trade Organisation rules with its tariff regulations on all products.

Umber those circumstances any UK Government could very well fall, and would deserve to do so if they were responsible for such an event.

Heartily agree grandad1943. Any government that allows this economic suicide to take place deserves to lose office. Why this obsession with 'democracy' and 'will of the people'? Parties of both sides of the divide have been elected on manifesto promises that they subsequently discover are too difficult or expensive to carry out. What about the 'will' of those disappointed electors? Most politicians know that given the opportunity to vote on it, a sizeable majority would choose to reinstate the death penalty. What price the 'will of the people" there?

The "Will of the People" referring to the referendum was a snapshot of opinion taken at a moment in time. Both sides were economical with the truth. The country had become disenchanted with all political parties so many voted against Europe blaming them for problems caused by UK government mis-management. A hard Brexit is economic suicide, a soft Brexit is pointless so logic says give up Brexit.

That is if the EU will forgive the pain and uncertainty caused by the Brexit issue. Recent comments by Phillip Hammond and talk by Teresa May of a UK only satellite lead me think that reality may be striking home and Brexit could be abandoned with or without a second Referendum.

The Tories are finished if they follow the current course and Labour will get nowhere with the wider public while Jeremy Corbyn is in charge. So who is fit to lead the country?

Our present problem is the it is Parliament that has to approve any deal because the Tories may not have a majority to accept or reject any deal. Nor is any likely Labour government, another general election is likely to be a hung parliament again.
Grandad is correct in theory that WTO rules could apply. But that is against everybody's interests, on Brexit day a transition will have to have been agreed.
Imagine all the trucks turning up at Dover and Calais with the wrong paperwork, not to mention every airport, in theory we all need UK passports not EU ones, any changes are not going to be done in a few months.

There will be a transition.

on Brexit day a transition will have to have been agreed.

But we will only get a transition agreement if the Withdrawal Agreement has been negotiated and ratified by the UK and the EU. At the moment the chances of this happening are looking very slim.

The EU has been preparing for a 'no deal' since early this year when they issued their notices to stakeholders. They make it very clear that in the event of no deal we become a third country on exit day and nothing that now applies because of our membership of the EU will apply after that.

It may not be in the interests of 'the EU' but The EU27 are well aware and have had plenty of time in which to plan to mitigate the effects. Which, according to social media, is what they are doing by things like finding alternative suppliers and not renewing contracts with UK businesses.

I think it is a bit naive to assume that the 'grownups' will not let catastrophe happen.

Rees-Mogg thinks we shouldn’t worry too much about the Irish border. He says People don’t need to cross the border much anyway.
In fact 30,000 people cross the 240 mile long border every day.
Does he understand the “good Friday Agreement” and the importance of maintaining peace in Northern Ireland?

Jacob Rees-Mogg has been branded “ill-informed” by the Irish deputy prime minister after suggesting people crossing the Northern Ireland border could be “inspected” after Brexit in the same way as “we had during the Troubles”.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jacob-rees-mogg_uk_5b81cea2e4b07295151373ae

The problem with HGV vehicles arriving into the ports should there be a "no deal" Brexit, would be that customs officers have no other place but those ports to assess the revenue due on any tariff under WTO trading conditions. As stated in an earlier posting a "freight manifest" would have to be forwarded from the dispatching company containing details of the entire load on the vehicle.

The above could be electronically transferred to the appropriate customs authority in advance of any vehicle arriving into a port. The customs on ether side of the channel would then be able to check the vehicle seal number (also contained in the manifest) and know exactly what is contained within the vehicle for tariff revenue calculation. As evidence of the vehicle carrying what is on the freight manifest, the truck would be weighed and by way of taking off the vehicle tare weight would leave the gross weight of the freight being carried on the truck.

The above is a workable system and one used for containers arriving from non-European countries into British ports at present. However, the problem for European traffic would be the time factor involved as compared to the present, and the huge cost required in setting up such a system together with the ongoing running of such a structure.

Is the above bureaucracy what those who support a hard Brexit really want? Or could it be just like Jacob Reec-Mogg hard Brexitiers do not understand what frictionless trade is and means to businesses and employment in Britain

Is this "taking back control".

Should there be a no deal UK lorries with British drivers won't even be allowed into the EU as their driving licenses will not be recognised, nor will they have permits for doing business in the EU.

I trust that at least the Logistics companies are arranging International driving licences for their employees...

Yes but when a transport company director raised these worries about EU/UK licences during Question Time his concerns were dismissed by Chris Grayling. Why do politicians repeatedly dismiss the opinions of those who know, those who will be left to deal with the disaster? Jacob Rees-Mogg's dismissal of the hard won Good Friday Agreement is breathtaking in its arrogance. His lack of respect for the hard decisions made by politicians on both sides of the troubles, people like Mo Mowlam and John Major who had to sit down with people with blood on their hands in an effort to prevent further murders is chilling. Sir Nicholas Soames ^Jacob Rees-Mogg...people confuse his well-cut suit with wisdom^