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Just when we thought it couldn't get any worse...

(63 Posts)
GrandmaKT Mon 20-May-19 20:02:18

I am getting increasingly alarmed by the escalating trade war between the USA and China.
If we leave the EU, we will very soon be in the position of wanting to strike trade deals with both of these super nations (and their various satellites). I can see us being dictated to by Trump as to who we can and cannot deal with.
It seems to me that this is not a good time to be setting up shop on our own. Strength being in numbers I would feel much more secure remaining in the EU. I'd be interested in hearing any theories that indicate we would be in a stronger trading position by leaving.

rosecarmel Tue 21-May-19 14:09:00

And it is fair to call junk what it is, just the same as it is to provide good reviews for quality items-

rosecarmel Tue 21-May-19 14:07:15

However, despite the fact that materials from a wide variety of countries are used to produce products assembled in China, it is also a fact that they are imported from there (China) to here (US)

As a result, our markets are flooded with junk-

Day6 Tue 21-May-19 14:04:01

Why is EU Trade Growth So Weak?

The real reason the UK's growth in trade with the rest of the world has been so much better than the EU is that the EU economy has stagnated with largely self-inflicted economic policies designed to prop up the ailing Euro

This has directly created economic disequilibrium, weak demand and low growth.

Other countries have performed economically much more strongly, hence subsequent trading opportunities for the UK have been better.

Ultimately, while the EU introspects and misfires with policy responses designed to prop up the sub-optimal Euro, it is highly unlikely EU growth will exceed global growth.

The Euro, without full federation, for which there is little public will amongst the peoples of Europe, will simply stumble from one crisis to the next, with remaining substantial imbalances.

AND

On any measure be it employment creation, GDP growth, monetary normalisation, political *demos, fiscal transfers andmigration, the UK has materially out-performed the EU over the short and longer term.

*demos: the people of a nation regarded as a political unit.
The above from "How the EU is a drag on UK prosperity" March 2019.

So, do we all look forward to yet MORE UK billions of taxpayers money being used to prop up weak economies throughout Europe if we remain in the EU?

We need to get out now and cut ties. That does not prevent further trade with the EU bloc, because we KNOW they dread us leaving (for financial reasons) and NEED our markets for their goods too.

rosecarmel Tue 21-May-19 13:58:13

counterpoint, I agree ..

Whitewavemark2 Tue 21-May-19 13:54:40

counterpoint exactly. How on earth does an annual GDP of $18.8trn constitute a small block.

Compare that with the U.K. GDP of $2.6trn.

The trouble with so much of the Brexit argument is that it knows or thinks it knows the price of everything but in fact knows the value of nothing.

counterpoint Tue 21-May-19 13:50:20

The EU is a relatively strong bloc.

It is the largest trading bloc in the world, by population. The performance of the euro against the dollar is very similar to the performance of the pound against the dollar. Not surprising since the pound-euro rate is pretty much where it was 10 years ago. There are issues with the eurozone, and they should be resolved.

It is simplistic to talk about propping up the poorer countries. In an economy, it is to the benefit of all to ensure that everyone has purchasing power. Money that is transferred to poorer areas will benefit the overall EU economy, and ultimately benefit the richer countries too. We are cutting off our noses to spite our faces if we think that abandoning our contributions to the EU will really make us better off.

Keep talking about the UK as the fifth largest economy hides more than it reveals (and the projections for this year make the UK the 7th largest). If you exclude the USA and China, the next five countries added together are smaller than the USA. It makes no sense to suppose that we can compete on equal terms with the USA. The three most important trading blocs are the USA, China and the EU. The EU is not a drain on our economy.

counterpoint Tue 21-May-19 13:38:04

Chinese goods vary hugely in quality. And just looking at the "made in China" label doesn't tell you as much as you may think. China has been especially successful at gaining work in product assembly, and the "made in" label refers to where the product was put together. In fact, many complex products are put together from parts made in a number of different countries. It's dangerous to generalise about the quality of products that are labelled "made in" anywhere. And certainly some Chinese products are of excellent quality.

The issue of "stealing intellectual property" is far more complex than it is made to sound. The USA in its formative years was guilty of a great deal of product piracy, and it is only in comparatively recent times that the USA has recognised copyright in original works. A related problem is that big software companies, usually American, have utilised large numbers of patents to bully small innovators everywhere, often over technology that they did not invent. Actual inventors outside very large companies cannot make effective use of patent protection, and cannot afford to sue big companies who breach their patents. How much of what China does is theft and how much is reverse engineering is hard to determine. And don't forget that much important software is open source.

Book Tue 21-May-19 13:04:58

Hi
Very well written post and it intelligently raised important and salient points.
Best regards, Rosie

Day6 Tue 21-May-19 12:56:10

The EU is a strong block

No it's not.

Many EU member states are very poor countries, many economies are in dire straits and the Euro is in danger and has performed poorly.

The EU is propped up (and always has been) financially by the bigger players, like France and Germany - and the UK of course. (To the tune of £39,000,000,000 - billions - lest we forget.)

There are many arguments to suggest the EU is a huge drain on UK prosperity.

Using Trump and China as a scaremongering argument doesn't wash. Remainers with limited vision and little faith in the 5th biggest economy in the world (the UK) are now trying another tactic.

The EU needs the UK.

For our financial contributions - a huge input into the EU budget - and our markets.

rosecarmel Tue 21-May-19 12:55:30

Agree ..

ReadyMeals Tue 21-May-19 12:43:18

I love world trade and I love to see things from the far east for sale here. What I don't like is the way Chinese produce seems to have crowded everything else out. Some types of things are simply not available made in this country any more. A little bit of balance please, not just everything the cheapest we can get.

rosecarmel Tue 21-May-19 12:38:24

Grandad1943, the issues you noted regarding restrictions are only restrictions on new tech devices, not pre-owned -- it seems- And I believe some restrictions are being loosened, if they haven't already-

Hwawei is a corrupt company- Their superior phone was built from stolen intellectual property- I also own a Hwawei, but I'm not impressed- However, to be fair it isn't new, and might have been manufactured prior to acquiring the tech they stole-

Nanny41 Tue 21-May-19 12:21:10

We are bombarded with things made in China many sub standard, often ned to return things, we dont need more trade with China,as for the US I dread to think if the UK has to keep to Trumps rules.We are stronger in numbers, and I hope Brexit never happens, but it will of course, oh dear hindsight is a marvellous thing.

rosecarmel Tue 21-May-19 12:11:23

No, Trump isn't forever, but he stands a good chance of winning in 2020, meaning 4 more years in office -

There "appears" to be an emerging 30 year plan in the works - Republicans are scrambling to appoint conservative judges prior to the upcoming election in an effort to stack the judicial system- So even after Trump no longer holds office, support for his policies could hold for decades to come -

It's unfortunate that Democrats are getting behind Joe Biden, because he will lose -- almost solely due to his past relationship with China and current claims that China poses no problems- In other words, Biden supports corruption- And Chinese junk-

Democrats, as a whole, will not "vote" for candidates solely based on party- So even if Biden is nominated, he won't win-

Grandad1943 Tue 21-May-19 12:05:56

I posted the below on a different thread yesterday, but there was no response whatsoever. So, I will post it again here as this thread seems to have been opened on the same subject I posted on. Also, I have an owned an Huawei P20 Pro phone made in China for the last fifteen months, and it is by far the best phone I have ever had, certainly very far from sub-standard.

So, If anyone wishes to witness the sheer stupidity of Britain leaving the European Union, then they only have to look at the situation between Huawei and Google which has been brought about by Donald Trump protectionism of Apple.

Apple are seeing the sales of its iPhone, Ipad and Mac system laptops fall drastically due partly to pressure the Trump administration has placed on the company. Therefore, Donald Trump sees the solution to that in his warped mind as crippling Apples major competitor, Huawei.

In that, Trump has effectively banned Google from trading with Huawei, which will mean that the worlds most popular mobile operating system known as Andriod will now not be made available to Huawei phones and Tablets.

However, the above should make everyone think on Britain leaving the European Union and signing a trade deal with the United States. In that, it could well be that the Trump administration will soon be threatening UK companies with not being allowed to sell their products in the US if they trade with any other company or country Trump does not like.

Of course, Trump hides this blatant protectionism under the label of "National Security", which means no one can ask any revalent questions.

Remaining as part of the worlds largest trading block would mean that Trump would find it much more difficult to intimidate the governments of all twenty-eight countries, and any company threatened by the Trump administration would have all those EU countries it could still securely trade in.

However, on our own as a single nation, or isolated as a single company, all should think on that.

quizqueen Tue 21-May-19 11:44:12

Mr Farage is not for private health, that's just an untruth which gets repeated. He has had several operations, including for cancer, and speaks highly of them. He does think though, because of the increasing population and expensive treatments the NHS has to deal with, it cannot go on in its present form, but that is a different argument.

As for China, I do think most of the goods they produce are substandard and made not to last, so I avoid them as much as possible and try to support British producers. If we ever leave the EU and do a trade deal with the USA or anyone else, no one will make you buy their imports if you don't think they are to your liking.

We may be a bit worse off for a few years, after leaving the EU, but freedom is priceless. Ask any caged animal!

lemongrove Tue 21-May-19 11:38:02

Neither is Farage....honestly you would think that NF was in the Cabinet, the power that is ascribed to him!
We are not in ‘great trouble’ stop the hysterics people.

GrannyAnnie2010 Tue 21-May-19 11:24:27

Trump isn't forever.

123coco Tue 21-May-19 11:17:29

Anyone who thinks we won’t be damaged by leaving will be reassure I’m sure a Brexit Party MEP hopeful on the radio arguing Leave was worth it ANY PRICE and we all will be worse off but only for 30 YEARS!! I heard it myself on the Nicky Campbell show on radio. I should have a choice about wether I want this. And yes. If anyone thinks Trumps isolationist polices are not scary then I despair. And a trade deal with him will be a very fickle thing and remember Farage is for private health so I expect he’s already been dividing up the NHS for his buddy. We are in great trouble!

rosecarmel Tue 21-May-19 02:08:42

I don't think what ever is done won't impact economies .. But they will bounce back ..

gradually ..

rosecarmel Tue 21-May-19 02:04:54

Then it only stands to reason the US begins to gradually back off providing fuel for the production and distribution of cheap Chinese goods-

I think China will do what they need to do gradually as well-

Something has to be done-

Whitewavemark2 Mon 20-May-19 22:00:33

rose don’t forget the level of USA debt owned by the Chinese. The USA has followed this policy of selling debt to China in order to fund its federal spending. China in turn by owning these Treasury notes is able to able to keep the yuan weak relative to the dollar.
China’s ownership of American debt is changing the balance of economic power

So ironically the USA has helped fuel cheap Chinese imports

rosecarmel Mon 20-May-19 21:47:11

Whitewavemark2, I appreciate the insight, thank you- I have to admit my ignorance and tunnel vision when it comes to the subject -- having focused on my/our anger regarding the matter, more than learning about it ..

lemongrove, I've no idea! At one time I'd of thought "McDonalds"!

Whitewavemark2 Mon 20-May-19 21:41:52

rose we DO trade with the USA, but do so as part of a powerful economic block. This ensures that such a large and economically powerful country like the USA and China are met with a trading block equally as powerful, so we can negotiate as equals. What we are worried about is when/if we stand as a single country without the clout or indeed the expertise to negotiate on equal terms.

lemongrove Mon 20-May-19 21:39:44

It’s a race as to who takes over the world first.... China, Tesco
Or Starbucks.