The Labour Party

Polls mean nothing. Remember the ones only 2 days from the referendum when quite a few said Remain would win?

In the anonymity of the ballot booth voters put a cross and its not always the (politically correct) one they tell the pollsters!

growstuff Thu 25-Jul-19 22:24:03

"It depends which poll you follow, POGS."
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Pardon? Did you mean to post to me.

I am not a fan of Polls but to be fair I have asked on another thread out of interest for a link to one but it is behind The Times pay wall as far as I know.

Polls are interesting but hardly proven a sure bet for information. In fact not worth a lot as they are usually limited in the numbers polled or partisan rubbish.

"The vast majority of Labour voters are pro-Remain, but they're concentrated in areas such as London and Manchester, which are solidly Labour anyway."
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Are they?

I think the majority of Labour ' Members' are Remainers but unless every individual who voted for Labour are asked the wider Labour Electorate remains unknown.

I voted Conservative at the last 2 elections but voted Remain. I am not a Conservative Member but posters and commentators keep telling me I am a thick/xenophobic/racist / even Brexshitter (polite) who voted Leave because that is their perception of anybody who voted Conservative and that means they voted Leave. Proves what rubbish generalising comes up with.

Yes, they are, POGS. I didn't even write anything about the alleged characteristics of Remainers or Conservative-voting Remain voters (and it's obvious there are some.)

I was concentrating on the difficulties Labour faces in opting for Remain or Leave. I suggest you read what I wrote more carefully. However, I'll repeat the main points.

Every single post-referendum poll has shown that the majority of people who had voted Labour in the previous election also voted Remain. It's difficult to be accurate for all sorts of reasons, but the figure is about 70% (give or take for a margin of error). Ironically, about 70% of Labour-held parliamentary seats voted Leave. That's because places such as London and Manchester voted Labour AND Remain by a big margin. If Labour opts for Leave, it could possibly afford to lose some voters in those areas, because they're solidly Labour anyway.

The big problem for Labour is in its midlands and northern seats, which voted Leave. Some of these seats are marginals and UKIP (now Brexit Party) are eying them up. If Labour decides to support Remain, it would very probably lose some of them.

On the other hand, by continuing to dither, Labour could lose some of its Lab/LD marginals such as Leeds North West, Cambridge and possibly Manchester Withington.

Having lost most of Scotland, Labour has a real problem making its numbers add up and Brexit is adding to the complexity (and that's without Corbyn).

So, POGS, the majority of Labour voters who voted Remain are concentrated in a few areas. Their votes will produce very different results in a direct election, such as a referendum, from a FPTP system, such as a general election. What's your problem with that?

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Maizied

Thank you for calling me a LIAR. Your usual charm.

My post you take exception to was trying to give an example of how generalising is rubbish at times and I used myself as an example. Now you call me a LIAR I feel I should respond.

The truth is when a comnentator/poster/anybody discussing the Conservative voter states/believes they are a LEAVE voter they are stereotyping and WRONG. As a Conservative voter at the last 2 elections it is perfectly acceptable to say they are talking of me, albeit out of their backside.

Likewise when a coomentator/poster/anybody discussing REMAIN states / believes they are Labour voters they are also stereotyping and a Labour voter would have the right to say they are thinking of them, ' I '.

If I were to call ALL Labour voters as anti_semetic I would quite rightly be hauled over the coals as it would not be truth nor fact. It would quite rightly bring forth calls to ' don' t call ' ME' anti_semetic because ' I ' vote Labour.

That principle applies when stating a certain political party voter voted for LEAVE or REMAIN, calling voters unintelligent/intelligent etc. etc. Thread after thread after thread has somebody stating/believing they know what/why/how others voted and they don't have a bloody clue. That is the truth!

Maizie d

"Though, of course, I've no idea of what people call you on other forums or in real life.. Perhaps you are venting on here as some sort of safety valve..

I wouldn't normally bother to pull up a poster on a point such as you've made here but as you like to present your contributions as being the acme of logical, evidence based, well judging perfection posting I rather think your unevidenced and overblown little rant here has cast some doubt on your credibility.
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Venting, Safety Valve, Acme of logical, evidence based, over blown ranting, doubt my credibility.

Don't hold back.!

I came to the conclusion ages ago that most of us vote the way our heart dictates. Not our brain.
But it's still important to give all adults a vote, to preserve 'democracy' - whatever that is.

MaizieD how about your own unevidenced and overblown little rant!

Fennel 'I came to the conclusion ages ago that most of us vote the way our heart dictates. Not our brain.
But it's still important to give all adults a vote, to preserve 'democracy' - whatever that is.'

I find this a real insult to so many who take the time to study the issues and try to understand what is at stake, with great care. Personally, and that applies to OH too- we have always voted with both, heart and brain together'. And never voted on 'party' or 'class' lines either.

As for 'democracy' - it is a very vague term- which means something very different depending on which country you live in. The UK is often not considered truly 'democratic' by many other countries- because it is still a Monarchy, and because of the un-elected House of Lords, and its ONE only religion representatives - and because of the First Past the Post system - which basically means that anyone living in a Constituency which does not represent one's views/politics- can vote again and again, knowing full well their vote will go straight into the bin and not be counted.

Good for you and your husband Jura but I would think you're a minority.
It's the majority who win elections.

Your are probably right, sadly. Especially when very powerful technology, in the hands of the wrong people- targets 'vunerable' people. Even more so- when they have been proven to do so, fraudulently- got away with it- and intend to do the same all over again. We must ensure they do not get away with it this time- and I hope, just hope- it will actually turn out to backfire as many will see they were played like mice with a cat.

Technology to try and influence decisions isn’t new jura
And if you imagine it was only used to try and influence Leave voters, then think again.

People are as likely to be swayed by a speech or tv appearance anyway.

In fact, what you are trying to do yourself on here is a version of this!
Insinuating that ‘vulnerable’ people ( do you mean thick?)
Were all got at and swayed to vote Leave, all 17 and a half million.

Pull the other one, it’s got bells on it.

Jura

You have another thread running on Cambridge Analytica and BJ.

Are you of the belief only Leave voters were targeted during the EU Referendum?

Do you honestly believe Political Parties are not ' Harvesting' our information for political gain?

If we only allowed the vote to those who had studied the issues etc that wouldn't be democracy. It would be meritocracy or aristocracy etc. And I hope none of us want that.

Yes the only problem with democracy is we all get to vote. We also all get to be targeted by Cambridge Analytica. I looked at apartments, caravans and small houses in a confined area 100 miles away. I spent ten minutes on line this morning. Just caught up with facebook and yes, every 2nd post is an advert for those things. Cookies init.

Fennel- agreed, and yet, people who vote should study the issues carefully - and the information they are given should be impartial, factual and checked for being such.

As you know. I grew up and currently live, in a country with a totally different system to the UK FPP and Parliamentary Democracy- Direct Democracy. It truly has its problems too, for the reasons you state. But... at least the Swiss Government provides a comprehensive information brochure for each vote/Referendum- putting forwards pros and cons, and the vote advice of each official party. These are checked by experts for being factual and accurate. And yet it is clear that some people put them in the bin and don't bother, and even if they bother, do not inform themselves beyond the brochure- and it is a concern. I was always taught, adn we wer taught at school, including compulsory lessons to explaint he political system and how it works- that with RIGHTS come RESPONSIBILITY - and informing yourself is on top of the list when you vote.

Only a million or so people needed to be swayed.

lemongrove, You might be one of the extremely rare group of people whose behaviour is influenced by pure reason, but the vast majority of people aren't. Some of them don't know enough about issues and others are complacent. Some have inbuilt values (one way or the other) and won't be persuaded, even in the face of facts. The VoteLeave campaign recognised from very start that they needed to target people's hearts rather than their brains. They were right and combined that with some very intelligent PR.

Corbyn's thing is banging on about how bad everything is. With a dull, depressing May in place, it's easy to say this.

The reality for the vast majority is things are actually pretty good. Boris will be positive and optimistic, the majority will like it.

Hard to compete against.

until even his 'supporters' begin to see the Emperor has NO clothes on - that he has NO intention whatsoever to have a Deal, any Deal, with the EU- and that he will move on at reckless speed, with the Deal he has been planning with Trump for a very long time- at any cost to our industry, agriculture, standards, safety, NHS, and more ...

Won't be long.

Targeting through the Internet is here to stay, before that it was newspapers/leaflets/pamphlets/tv which didn’t reach as many people.
It also worked both ways....for the Leave campaign and for the Remain Campaign, for a GE ( all parties.)
The people in the UK voted in the way that ultimately they wanted to, not because of pressure from behind the scenes groups but rather despite it.
Targeting will always have a certain amount of success, ( all advertising and marketing does)but I think it is less successful in matters such as a referendum or GE where people have their own reasons for voting a certain way.