Gransnet forums

News & politics

If we leave without a deal what will happen to the supply of food in the UK

(169 Posts)
GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:00:39

An article in the Lancet starts "All forms of Brexit are bad for health, but some are worse than others" It looks a four different scenarios . " ... a No-Deal Brexit under which the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without any formal agreement on the terms of withdrawal; a Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated between the UK and EU and awaiting (possible) formal agreement, which provides a transition period until the end of December, 2020; the Northern Ireland Protocol's backstop coming into effect after the end of that period; or the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU."

It tells us that they have found that, although all forms involve negative consequences for the UK's leadership and governance of health, in both Europe and globally, with questions about the ability of parliament and other stakeholders to scrutinise and oversee government actions a No-Deal Brexit is substantially worse for the NHS than a future involving the Withdrawal Agreement.

It discusses difficulties in recruiting medical staff which they see as the most challenging area. It goes on to illuminate the issues with financing health care, saying "The only aspect of NHS financing after Brexit in which we can expect no change is for reciprocal health care under the Withdrawal Agreement. Obviously even this goes if we are unable to reach a deal and just drop out. It then looks at all other aspects of NHS where, they say, financing is negatively affected under all Leave outcomes.

"Ceasing of this system will have major consequences for older UK residents, especially if they have pre-existing conditions, because insurance cover, which might not be available for those with the most severe conditions, could be extremely expensive." Some other groups will be particularly affected, such as patients on dialysis who benefit from provisions that allow them to receive it in centres in other member states."

They looked at the consensus of economic reports and noted that the outcomes suggested in those reports - of a negative impact on the economy - have been borne out. They point out that forecasting is always difficult but in the case of Brexit is it more so.

"As one of the largest areas of public expenditure, any negative impact on the UK economy will put additional pressure on NHS financing ..."

The paper also looks at other areas which will have an effect on health. Food supply (there was an interview about this on "Today, R4, this morning) because of our overwhelming importing of fresh fruit and vegetables.

"... a modelling study estimated that a No-Deal Brexit could lead to between 6000 and 23 000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030."

There was a great deal more of course. You can read the article (if you register) here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30425-8/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR3NrFJwWrGUD-P0BZcq51fo9KApsEJdToJvvYI2kPOBkC5n38JzpT0BXJ4

janipat Fri 09-Aug-19 17:45:15

Thank you so much for your kind offer of marine worms, slugs and caterpillars growstuff and MaizieD but I think we'll decline smile
I agree we don't need strawberries at Christmas, but I for one would hate never again to taste citrus, bananas, avocado and a wealth of other foods that we simply can't grow in this country. For what it's worth I tend not to buy imports of stuff we grow ourselves eg asparagus, beans, strawberries etc as I think our own in-season produce is better. Asparagus from the Vale of Evesham cannot be bettered!

jura2 Fri 09-Aug-19 16:41:54

actually, I do believe people could adjust to differences in food supplies- and perhaps even agree that it could be beneficial in some ways. Eat more local, less meat, no ridiculous strawberries at Christmas, etc.

But medicines is another matter, for sure. And yet, for me, the ensuing brain drain would possibly be the worst effect for the UK.

MaizieD Fri 09-Aug-19 14:52:42

All good protein sources! I could add in some marine worms, too. Tariff free, so dirt cheap....

Mind you, I'm pretty good at onions. I don't think anything eats onions, apart from homo sapiens....

growstuff Fri 09-Aug-19 14:26:15

Don't panic, Janipat! Maizie and I are starting up a home-grown food business. We're going to sell slugs and caterpillars. I don't remember anybody mentioning this in the original Leave propaganda.

On second thoughts, I think I'll leave growing cabbages to the experts!

growstuff Fri 09-Aug-19 14:23:59

Flabbergasted! Lost for words!

MaizieD Fri 09-Aug-19 14:09:43

How on earth do you manage to blame the EU for your perceived decline in the NHS, PGAgirl?

Would you care to explain? I'm sure other people apart from me would be very interested

PGAgirl Fri 09-Aug-19 13:50:16

The NHS has definitely gone downhill in all patient surveys since we joined the EU, so I am blaming the EU for this loss of service and am predicting that the NHS will significantly improve when we leave the EU

janipat Fri 09-Aug-19 13:38:08

It will be fine! My son and partner will grow cabbages, carrots, parsnips, brussel sprouts and a variety of fruits in their garden..........oops, no garden maybe a pot or two on the windowsill of their first floor flat. At least they'd be safe from slugs and catterpillars wink

GillT57 Fri 09-Aug-19 13:36:26

Quizqueen I am not sure which part of your post to address first;
^If any companies or countries withhold or ration medical supplies, they will be proven to be no friends and allies of the UK and alternate sources should be given the contracts asap, thus they will be the ones to lose business in the long term. Of course, I expect no one has ever died while we've been in the EU for over 40years, when different areas around the country chose to ration certain medicines based on expense^

Do you really believe what you have posted or are you just trying to convince yourself as you have realised what a hideous mistake you have made?

GillT57 Fri 09-Aug-19 13:31:47

growstuff your caterpillars are as fat and well fed as our squirrels which eat the strawberries before they ripen, now if only we could train squirrels to eat caterpillars........

Welshwife Fri 09-Aug-19 13:26:11

Pharma companies tend to specialise in the type of medication they produce - they do not produce all medications. Insulin of the type most U.K. sufferers take is not produced in the U.K. - it is all imported. A Scandinavian company does make a form of insulin in U.K. but it is derived from animal sources and only a few hundred patients take this type. This is why there is some problem with the drug at the moment.

MaizieD Fri 09-Aug-19 13:20:46

when different areas around the country chose to ration certain medicines based on expense!

And I don't suppose you'd've moaned about the high cost of the NHS if they hadn't done so?

GracesGranMK3 Fri 09-Aug-19 13:12:43

Did you watch the video newnanny or are you telling me you know more than those whose field of expertise it is to understand these things. You, personally, are wrong in your belief that quotas will rise. So much has changed in recent years that in or out that isn't going to happen. If you have proof that it is other than your belief system, please show us all. Otherwise I will think what you put forward as 'fact' is the usual load of rubbish we get from faithful leave voters.

quizqueen Fri 09-Aug-19 13:02:04

The question was initially about food after Brexit. The answer is - we can eat British produce and things we import from everywhere, just as before.

If any companies or countries withhold or ration medical supplies, they will be proven to be no friends and allies of the UK and alternate sources should be given the contracts asap, thus they will be the ones to lose business in the long term. Of course, I expect no one has ever died while we've been in the EU for over 40years, when different areas around the country chose to ration certain medicines based on expense!

MaizieD Fri 09-Aug-19 12:55:29

growstuff, I grew my cabbages under fleece to foil the butterflies; I have the fattest slugs in Co. Durham sad

MaizieD Fri 09-Aug-19 12:53:34

If we leave with no deal then we leave on WTO terms.

Which means that we will have to charge WTO tariffs on food coming into the UK. If we make EU produce tariff free then, on WTO terms, we would have to let all the food we import come in tariff free. If we let everything in tariff free it could a) undercut our homegrown produce, destroying our agricultural industry and b) why would anyone want to do a trade deal with us if they can already sell to us tariff free?

One object of trade deals is to reduce or eliminate tariffs for both partners. If we've nothing to negotiate with, i.e tariff reduction or elimination, the other country would have no incentive to reduce tariffs on goods we export to them.

Plus fish will become cheaper as fishing quotas rise for UK fisherman.

We export a large proportion of our fish to other countries, including EU member states, because the British won't eat it. The fish we will eat we import.

So that one won't run. We lose our EU market, because our exports to them will pay tariffs, but we'll still have to import the fish that the British will buy.

Most of our quota was sold off to big European companies. Good luck with trying to get it back...

Grandad has explained the problems with transport and ferries. It won't be sorted in a month...

EU counties will sell to us as we will liwer tarriffs for imports.

Jeez! They export to us tariff free at the moment. Tariffs will mean price rises for the UK consumers.

growstuff Fri 09-Aug-19 12:49:42

Gill, I planted loads of cabbages earlier in the year and have the fattest caterpillars in the land. Unfortunately, they haven't left me very much - but, hey, it'll be good for me (not sure how, maybe the thought of suffering is supposed to be good for the soul - and caterpillars).

growstuff Fri 09-Aug-19 12:36:34

How do you work out that there will be more fish for UK fishermen? There will be legal battles for years over the quotas which the UK sold to foreign fishermen. In any case, fish closest to the UK coast aren't suddenly going to go into reproduction overdrive.

newnanny Fri 09-Aug-19 12:36:07

I was unaware the NHS would prescribe Liothyroxine. I have asked my GP as needed Tyroxine for 25 years but told she can't prescribe on NHS. I have to have Levothyroxine which is not that good for me. My sistr btought me back some from Greece and I felt better with it and it cost her 3 pounds for a months supply. This is nothing to do with Brexit. My Levothyroxine comes from India. Where is link to Brexit?

newnanny Fri 09-Aug-19 12:28:21

If we leave with no deal then we leave on WTO terms. The EU will still sell us food. We will sell less to EU and more to other countries, which has been trend over last 5 years anyway. Plus fish will become cheaper as fishing quotas rise for UK fisherman. No need to panic. I am expecting a month of less food choice then back to normal. EU counties will sell to us as we will liwer tarriffs for imports.

GillT57 Fri 09-Aug-19 12:02:47

succinct and frightening Jura2, but standby for the reasons why it should be ignored. Have you got your Brexiteers bingo card at the ready?

Eyes down for ' we managed in the war' and 'it will cure the obesity crisis'.

Just popping out to the garden to grub up my wasteful, luxury strawberries and plant sensible sprouts and cabbage for the winter.

jura2 Fri 09-Aug-19 10:47:42

This is so hard- and I am fully aware many Brexiters think us 'Remainers' to be the self-appointed 'clever people who know 'best'- and that 'experts' are just an irrelevant nonsense. But 'experts' is whom we trust, not Cummings, or Johnson, or Gove or ... any of them. They are the one we listen to carefully, and take onboard the information and advice they give us. And yet, still - people come up with statements about 'just believe, be positive, trust our PM and Government, they will make sure we are OK, etc, etc.- and when 'challenged' just refuse to come back with anything coherent about such statements and belief.

She explains it well - and she is an expert

www.facebook.com/206794096660124/videos/380162142551072/

so I'll take my queue from her and other experts, like Prof Dougan, like Jason Hunter who has negotiated deals internationally for our Government and others, etc.

Welshwife Fri 09-Aug-19 10:41:49

When I was in U.K. during June we had an unexpected family bereavement so extended our trip by two weeks. This had a knock on effect that I had insufficient tablets of two of my medications. I took my EU prescription to a local chemist and they were able to give me the pills although they said they needed to treat it as a private prescription and I had to pay +£80-16 for the drugs - which I was unable to reclaim. I had to wait in the pharmacy for about half an hour and in that time I saw half a dozen people wanting prescriptions dispensed being told to try other pharmacies such as Boots which have larger warehouse storage facilities or return to the doctor and ask to be given a prescription for an alternative drug.
Why would a pharmacist do this if there was no shortage of drugs?
As to the link about T3 thyroxine drugs some Health authorities are refusing to allow this drug to be prescribed and the patient has to either pay for it privately - a cost which is now £350 a month or try and obtain the drug abroad. It is available in some EU countries for £5 a month. I cannot understand the discrepancy in prices.

growstuff Fri 09-Aug-19 10:22:50

By the way, I'm still waiting for some evidence of the protocol you mentioned.

growstuff Fri 09-Aug-19 10:21:48

Minniemoo, I quite clearly stated that I don't directly "blame" Brexit, but it is having an indirect effect.