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If we leave without a deal what will happen to the supply of food in the UK

(169 Posts)
GracesGranMK3 Mon 05-Aug-19 12:00:39

An article in the Lancet starts "All forms of Brexit are bad for health, but some are worse than others" It looks a four different scenarios . " ... a No-Deal Brexit under which the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without any formal agreement on the terms of withdrawal; a Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated between the UK and EU and awaiting (possible) formal agreement, which provides a transition period until the end of December, 2020; the Northern Ireland Protocol's backstop coming into effect after the end of that period; or the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU."

It tells us that they have found that, although all forms involve negative consequences for the UK's leadership and governance of health, in both Europe and globally, with questions about the ability of parliament and other stakeholders to scrutinise and oversee government actions a No-Deal Brexit is substantially worse for the NHS than a future involving the Withdrawal Agreement.

It discusses difficulties in recruiting medical staff which they see as the most challenging area. It goes on to illuminate the issues with financing health care, saying "The only aspect of NHS financing after Brexit in which we can expect no change is for reciprocal health care under the Withdrawal Agreement. Obviously even this goes if we are unable to reach a deal and just drop out. It then looks at all other aspects of NHS where, they say, financing is negatively affected under all Leave outcomes.

"Ceasing of this system will have major consequences for older UK residents, especially if they have pre-existing conditions, because insurance cover, which might not be available for those with the most severe conditions, could be extremely expensive." Some other groups will be particularly affected, such as patients on dialysis who benefit from provisions that allow them to receive it in centres in other member states."

They looked at the consensus of economic reports and noted that the outcomes suggested in those reports - of a negative impact on the economy - have been borne out. They point out that forecasting is always difficult but in the case of Brexit is it more so.

"As one of the largest areas of public expenditure, any negative impact on the UK economy will put additional pressure on NHS financing ..."

The paper also looks at other areas which will have an effect on health. Food supply (there was an interview about this on "Today, R4, this morning) because of our overwhelming importing of fresh fruit and vegetables.

"... a modelling study estimated that a No-Deal Brexit could lead to between 6000 and 23 000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030."

There was a great deal more of course. You can read the article (if you register) here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30425-8/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR3NrFJwWrGUD-P0BZcq51fo9KApsEJdToJvvYI2kPOBkC5n38JzpT0BXJ4

Elegran Wed 07-Aug-19 18:08:04

But, Firecracker Why the flaming hair-oil would the many sane, logical, quiet-spoken, and really nice people that among the population?

What advantage or satisfction would that give to me, a retired widowed lady of eighty who doesn't dabble in politics or go on demonstrations, who hates violence, manipulation and bullying of all sorts, including the underhand sort which goes with media exaggeration and foreign interference in elections and blackmailing of slightly kinky politicians? A member of Gransnet from its inception, who hasand successfully for eight years?

Do you imagine I have been recruited by some fifth column organisation bent on causing mayhem and destroying Western democracy? I assure you that I haven't!

Have a good look at some of our most power-hungry politicians if you want to pick out professional demagogues and stirrer-uppers of mass hysteria.

Goodbyetoallthat Wed 07-Aug-19 18:00:54

Not sure how you make " your own preparations" regarding prescription medicines but am sure some will be able to advise.

varian Wed 07-Aug-19 17:20:36

No, the guillible have their fingers in their ears.

The Remainers are telling the truth, not something the guillible are prepared to hear.

The fact is that every properly informed study in every area of our national life - from the economists, the trade experts, the haulage industry, the scientists, the doctors, the farming community, the supermarkets, the customs experts, the security experts, the defense experts, the exporters and importers and many more who actually know what they are talking about are all telling us that any kind of brexit will damage our country and a no-deal brexit will devastate it for generations to come.

Blinko Wed 07-Aug-19 17:16:49

Back to the OP, If we leave without a deal what will happen to the supply of food in the UK, as it's coming up to the Winter months, we'll all be sharing fabulous recipes for cabbage and sprouts, surely? Collards, they used to be called.

Firecracker123 Wed 07-Aug-19 16:29:59

But Eazybee that is what the Remainers want to spread fear and panic amongst the gullible.

eazybee Wed 07-Aug-19 16:23:31

However who is to know either way & what will befall any of us in the future.

Absolutely, so why not make your own personal preparations and just wait and see, instead of attempting to spread alarm and despondency?

Goodbyetoallthat Wed 07-Aug-19 15:28:57

Minniemoo the word "likely" rather than "definitely' was used so as a lawyer I agree there is a distinction. However who is to know either way & what will befall any of us in the future.

EllanVannin Wed 07-Aug-19 15:27:53

If you enjoy cheap crap from China,then carry on Brexiting !
PS that includes food too !!

Minniemoo Wed 07-Aug-19 15:16:24

Did he/she really say that, goodbyetoallthat? They need reporting. That goes against everything the NHS has said to both staff and the public.

Goodbyetoallthat Wed 07-Aug-19 15:08:59

My 24 year daughter who suffers from epilepsy has been told by the consultant treating her that there is likely to be a problem supplying her medication after Brexit.
But that's okay isn't it as long as we can all sing Rule Britannia with gusto.

Firecracker123 Wed 07-Aug-19 14:56:59

Lol no actually I thought perhaps some posters should calm down but it's a lost cause with Remainers.

GracesGranMK3 Wed 07-Aug-19 14:17:38

Firecracker123 did you intend to show your ignorance by making such a condescending remark? If you did it worked.

Firecracker123 Wed 07-Aug-19 14:05:59

Good grief calm down dear.

GillT57 Wed 07-Aug-19 12:33:22

It is all a slow drip drip drip of propaganda, demonising the EU, then distrust of the Civil Service, what next, burning books? I await the cries of over exageration from the usual optimistists who believe everything will be fine, but take a steady step back and look at what has happened to this country in the past three years. There are people who are now, happily, talking about, if not recommending food shortages ( awfully good for sorting out the obesity crisis, dont'cha know), saying that if we just took better care of ourselves we wouldn't need all the medicines that may be in short supply, people snidely suggesting that those on here who live abroad are somehow just not as worthy as those who have'stuck it out here'. Historians will look at this period of self inflicted discord, disharmony, and sheer nastiness and wonder at just what madness overtook the country. And still, some of you think it will all be for the best. I should really give up arguing my point but I cannot as I am so, so angry that my family, friends and this country have been brought to this position AND FOR NO GOOD REASON

growstuff Wed 07-Aug-19 12:25:26

Didn't Farage turn one of his meetings into a mock-up air raid shelter (or something)? Or was that fake news?

growstuff Wed 07-Aug-19 12:23:54

That's what I meant when I wrote that the genius of Brexit has for very rich people to con so many others into accepting something which will make them and their country worse off.

GillT57 Wed 07-Aug-19 12:20:31

And all the time growstuff, these disbelievers and dismissers of experts are doing the work for Dominic Cummings who must be sneering at grateful for those who swallow the Brexit wartime spirit nonsense. I note how Brexiteer's mood on here has gone from unicorns, rainbows, easy trade deals, to we will manage/we have done before/all you need is to grow sprouts in your window box......these muppets will have us singing Vera Lynn songs soon, you mark my words.

growstuff Wed 07-Aug-19 11:26:01

By the way, I agree with to an extent - all politicians are dismissed as shysters, all civil servants are time-serving muppets, everything is fake news (allegedly). People need to switch on their brains and delve a bit deeper.

growstuff Wed 07-Aug-19 11:24:15

Oh yes! I've read some of the Daily Mail health scare stories too. I would actually hope that my own education and experience would enable me to differentiate between the half-baked and the research with some validity. But - hey - what do I know? Try to tell people that there's a real risk of something happening or most evidence points in a certain direction and one is dismissed as only an "expert" trying to appear "superior".

Elegran Wed 07-Aug-19 10:38:14

Growstuff That has been happening more and more since the growing power of the internet.

Once upon a time, the general public didn't hear about tests and trials of new drugs, dietary theories and so on, until after they had been filtered through those who knew a lot about the subject and/or were actually going to use them. By then the more extreme had been proved or disproved by further studies and tests, and a more balanced view of them had emerged.

Graduation theses, written up by students on the results of the experiments they had been conducting during their underrgraduate or PhD years, were solely for the eyes of their professors, who gave them pass or fail marks as much on HOW they had gone about studying the subject as on how useful the result was, or even whether it stood up to further testing.

Now everyone puts a copy of everything on the net, at once, as soon as the last word is typed. We see these all the time on GN - someone comes across a degree thesis by someone on some obscure bit of science, and we all read it and get apoplectic at the nonsense it seems to be proposing.

Instead of finding out WHO wrote it and WHY, and WHAT knowledge and HOW MUCH experience do they have, some people react by saying "Yet another expert who is up their own exhaust pipe and talking rubbish! They are all paid to say what their employers want!"

growstuff Wed 07-Aug-19 10:04:49

It's been a psychological triumph to persuade people that "experts" don't know what they're talking about.

GracesGranMK3 Wed 07-Aug-19 10:03:18

(elderly, but still relevant, I think)

A bit like some of us then Maizie smile

MaizieD Wed 07-Aug-19 10:01:04

Can someone explain to me why we will have a shortage of fruit & veg

If this adds anything to Elegran's explanation, Pantglas I have found these two articles which go into a bit of detail:

www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/britain-faces-looming-brexit-gridlock-port-dover-n905296

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-ports-customs-union-u-turn-rotterdam-eu-trade-single-market-theresa-may-david-davis-a8303436.html

(elderly, but still relevant, I think)

varian Wed 07-Aug-19 09:55:41

It seems to me that the more expertise some has, like Nobel prize winner Sir Paul Nurse, the more appalled they are at the prospect of brexit, and the more likely it is that their warnings will be completely dismissed by the leavers as scaremongering.

GracesGranMK3 Wed 07-Aug-19 09:42:10

One thing worth bearing in mind too Pantglas, is that although we will no longer be part of making the rules, we will have to abide by those made in the EU when we want to export.

I have just heard Sir Paul Nurse, Director of the Crick Institute talking about how difficult it is becoming to recruit the best scientists because Brexit has meant that we are losing our status in the world (and leaving hasn't actually happened yet!).

He was asked about whether we could be confident that drug trials would not be disrupted, that people would not see those treatments disrupted for lack of supplies knowing that what the government has done about supplies of medicines and flying in radioisotopes needed for cancer treatment.

He replied that he did not have confidence in that. He added that we are facing an utterly chaotic situation, a failure of statecraft and political leadership, which has lead to this almost war-time footing which has simply been driven by an ideology that doesn't understand the modern world.

He added that we should just look at what we have to put in place to have to deal with the chaos that the failure of political leadership lead us to. He suggested the fact that the interviewer was asking questions like that just underwrites the extraordinary situation that we are in.