An article in the Lancet starts "All forms of Brexit are bad for health, but some are worse than others" It looks a four different scenarios . " ... a No-Deal Brexit under which the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without any formal agreement on the terms of withdrawal; a Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated between the UK and EU and awaiting (possible) formal agreement, which provides a transition period until the end of December, 2020; the Northern Ireland Protocol's backstop coming into effect after the end of that period; or the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU."
It tells us that they have found that, although all forms involve negative consequences for the UK's leadership and governance of health, in both Europe and globally, with questions about the ability of parliament and other stakeholders to scrutinise and oversee government actions a No-Deal Brexit is substantially worse for the NHS than a future involving the Withdrawal Agreement.
It discusses difficulties in recruiting medical staff which they see as the most challenging area. It goes on to illuminate the issues with financing health care, saying "The only aspect of NHS financing after Brexit in which we can expect no change is for reciprocal health care under the Withdrawal Agreement. Obviously even this goes if we are unable to reach a deal and just drop out. It then looks at all other aspects of NHS where, they say, financing is negatively affected under all Leave outcomes.
"Ceasing of this system will have major consequences for older UK residents, especially if they have pre-existing conditions, because insurance cover, which might not be available for those with the most severe conditions, could be extremely expensive." Some other groups will be particularly affected, such as patients on dialysis who benefit from provisions that allow them to receive it in centres in other member states."
They looked at the consensus of economic reports and noted that the outcomes suggested in those reports - of a negative impact on the economy - have been borne out. They point out that forecasting is always difficult but in the case of Brexit is it more so.
"As one of the largest areas of public expenditure, any negative impact on the UK economy will put additional pressure on NHS financing ..."
The paper also looks at other areas which will have an effect on health. Food supply (there was an interview about this on "Today, R4, this morning) because of our overwhelming importing of fresh fruit and vegetables.
"... a modelling study estimated that a No-Deal Brexit could lead to between 6000 and 23 000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030."
There was a great deal more of course. You can read the article (if you register) here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30425-8/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR3NrFJwWrGUD-P0BZcq51fo9KApsEJdToJvvYI2kPOBkC5n38JzpT0BXJ4
By the way, I agree with to an extent - all politicians are dismissed as shysters, all civil servants are time-serving muppets, everything is fake news (allegedly). People need to switch on their brains and delve a bit deeper.
And all the time growstuff, these disbelievers and dismissers of experts are doing the work for Dominic Cummings who must be sneering at grateful for those who swallow the Brexit wartime spirit nonsense. I note how Brexiteer's mood on here has gone from unicorns, rainbows, easy trade deals, to we will manage/we have done before/all you need is to grow sprouts in your window box......these muppets will have us singing Vera Lynn songs soon, you mark my words.
That's what I meant when I wrote that the genius of Brexit has for very rich people to con so many others into accepting something which will make them and their country worse off.
Didn't Farage turn one of his meetings into a mock-up air raid shelter (or something)? Or was that fake news?
It is all a slow drip drip drip of propaganda, demonising the EU, then distrust of the Civil Service, what next, burning books? I await the cries of over exageration from the usual optimistists who believe everything will be fine, but take a steady step back and look at what has happened to this country in the past three years. There are people who are now, happily, talking about, if not recommending food shortages ( awfully good for sorting out the obesity crisis, dont'cha know), saying that if we just took better care of ourselves we wouldn't need all the medicines that may be in short supply, people snidely suggesting that those on here who live abroad are somehow just not as worthy as those who have'stuck it out here'. Historians will look at this period of self inflicted discord, disharmony, and sheer nastiness and wonder at just what madness overtook the country. And still, some of you think it will all be for the best. I should really give up arguing my point but I cannot as I am so, so angry that my family, friends and this country have been brought to this position AND FOR NO GOOD REASON
Good grief calm down dear.
Firecracker123 did you intend to show your ignorance by making such a condescending remark? If you did it worked.
Lol no actually I thought perhaps some posters should calm down but it's a lost cause with Remainers.
My 24 year daughter who suffers from epilepsy has been told by the consultant treating her that there is likely to be a problem supplying her medication after Brexit.
But that's okay isn't it as long as we can all sing Rule Britannia with gusto.
Did he/she really say that, goodbyetoallthat? They need reporting. That goes against everything the NHS has said to both staff and the public.
If you enjoy cheap crap from China,then carry on Brexiting !
PS that includes food too !!
Minniemoo the word "likely" rather than "definitely' was used so as a lawyer I agree there is a distinction. However who is to know either way & what will befall any of us in the future.
However who is to know either way & what will befall any of us in the future.
Absolutely, so why not make your own personal preparations and just wait and see, instead of attempting to spread alarm and despondency?
But Eazybee that is what the Remainers want to spread fear and panic amongst the gullible.
Back to the OP, If we leave without a deal what will happen to the supply of food in the UK, as it's coming up to the Winter months, we'll all be sharing fabulous recipes for cabbage and sprouts, surely? Collards, they used to be called.
No, the guillible have their fingers in their ears.
The Remainers are telling the truth, not something the guillible are prepared to hear.
The fact is that every properly informed study in every area of our national life - from the economists, the trade experts, the haulage industry, the scientists, the doctors, the farming community, the supermarkets, the customs experts, the security experts, the defense experts, the exporters and importers and many more who actually know what they are talking about are all telling us that any kind of brexit will damage our country and a no-deal brexit will devastate it for generations to come.
Not sure how you make " your own preparations" regarding prescription medicines but am sure some will be able to advise.
But, Firecracker Why the flaming hair-oil would the many sane, logical, quiet-spoken, and really nice people that among the population?
What advantage or satisfction would that give to me, a retired widowed lady of eighty who doesn't dabble in politics or go on demonstrations, who hates violence, manipulation and bullying of all sorts, including the underhand sort which goes with media exaggeration and foreign interference in elections and blackmailing of slightly kinky politicians? A member of Gransnet from its inception, who hasand successfully for eight years?
Do you imagine I have been recruited by some fifth column organisation bent on causing mayhem and destroying Western democracy? I assure you that I haven't!
Have a good look at some of our most power-hungry politicians if you want to pick out professional demagogues and stirrer-uppers of mass hysteria.
Posted in haste without noticing that half a sentence had vanished. First sentence should read "Why the flaming hair-oil would the many sane, logical, quiet-spoken, and really nice people among the population who keep saying that this is the worst political decision they have ever witnessed be saying that just so as to spread panic around?"
Ex-Sainsbury's CEO: Brexit means 'higher prices, less choice, and poorer quality' at supermarkets
www.businessinsider.com/ex-sainsburys-ceo-justin-king-brexit-effect-supermarkets-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
Good grief, I must have been very annoyed at being accused of spiteful enough to be deliberately spreading panic to have made so many errors in one post. Last sentence of my third paragraph should be "A member of Gransnet from its inception, who has been avoiding the argy-bargy of the political threads assiduously and successfully for eight years."
Elegran I didn't target you personally, I meant Remainers in general and the so called experts, Carney, Osborne etc but hey ho if the cap fits as they say or not in your case.
Why are the people you mention 'so-called' experts Firecracker? Is this yet another example of you telling us you know more than they do? My goodness, the country is missing your expertise in all these areas.
But the general accusation was for ALL those who have the opinion that Brexit is NOT going to be the unqualified success that the career politicians are claiming. You seem to say that all of those who say that we would be better off remaining in the EU are just doing it to cause panic and stir up fear . You can't say that - it is not just career politicians (who may have a vested interest in having everyone vote them into positions of power where they will sort it all out) there are many many people who are genuine and truthful, and have used their intelligence and the experience of alifetime in their chosen field, who have given their considered opinion. Then there are the ordinary people who have the common sense and the exprience of living for sixty years or so as grownips in the world, who say the same thing - ^it is going to be hell on earth for quite a long time, and we will not get any help from our so-called "allies" in the States, who will apply savage commercial competition to our trading negotiations - as will the Chinese and all those other nations where it was going to be " a piece of cake" to grow our relationships.
These people are NOT agents provocateurs out to make the country panic. It is paranoia to imagine that they are.
If you feel experts are not to be trusted, why so much trust in the "so-called experts" who say that it will all be OK? Surely they have the same vested interest in wanting to be voted into power to run it all as those who say it will not be OK?
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