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Meanwhile in Scotland 2

(174 Posts)
Granny23 Tue 06-Aug-19 12:04:11

I was going to post this on the BBC bias thread but thought it might get losts in other aspects of the discussion.

Then I thought I would post it on the old Meanwhile in Scotland thread, but was advised by GN HQ that as that was over a year old I would be better to start a new thread - Hence MIS2.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/majority-of-scots-back-independence-as-no-deal-brexit-looms-ashcroft-poll-shows-nctw5zkqv?fbclid=IwAR3TeBkwuszIoLZfNKkI25NNOv9SvxMC

Recent polls have shown an almost 50/50 split on Scottish Independence. This poll, conducted by of all people the Conservative Lord Ashcroft is the first in recent times to show a YES vote in the lead.

I wanted to post it for two reasons

1) because the BBC did not mention it any any of their news bulletins even the BBC Scotland ones (bias?)

2) because the comments following the report in The Times show a woeful lack of knowledge of the finances and assets of Scotland and are repeating the old 'Spain would block them', 'they would be bankrupt', WE (who is We?) would not let them use the pound' etc.etc. There are comments suggesting that the money saved by not paying the Scottish Block Grant could mean a boost of billions for the NHS in England/Wales completely ignoring that the loss of all tax and revenue from Scotland would wipe 10%ish (perhaps more if you consider oil and gas licences and revenues) from the RUK budget at a stroke. Nor do they realise that an Independent Scotland within the EU would not suffer from the loss of exports to England when they have tariff free access to the vast market of the EU.

Is this a representative view of (presumably educated) Times readers? Or are they as ignorant as the average Daily Mail poster?

SirChenjin Sun 26-Jan-20 13:31:50

Support for independence has fallen according to the latest YouGov poll in Dec 2019 www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.scotsman.com/news/politics/support-for-scottish-independence-has-fallen-according-to-latest-yougov-survey-1-5058619/amp

Tooting29 Sat 01-Feb-20 17:13:48

If Scotland want to leave the United Kingdom then all of the UK should be able to vote on it not just the Scots as it affects the other nations as well.

paddyanne Sat 01-Feb-20 17:26:47

Is that what happened when ENGLAND wanted to leave the EU? Europe got a vote? I think you'll find a whole nation cant be held by force IF they want their freedom.not in ANY Union!I think you'll find the tories said exactly that about the EU .All WE need is a majority FOR the Yes vote and we're off

Tooting29 Sat 01-Feb-20 17:46:46

The difference with EU is they had the process in place by which a country could leave in article 50 and there are options to join. UK is the sovereign country of which Scotland is one part. Therefore the breakup of the United Kingdom impacts on England Wales and NI too. On borders, security, defence and the status of the people of the other countries. So ought they not be consulted beforehand. Not least Scots living outside Scotland? Like EU the remaining countries would need to negotiate with Scotland the terms of leaving and the finances needed for that.

SirChenjin Sat 01-Feb-20 22:43:38

The rUK has no say in Scotland’s future within the EU Tooting if we decide to vote to leave. As paddyanne rightly said - the rEU had no say in the UK leaving (which of course was not what N Ireland and Scotland wanted to do) and it works in exactly the same way in an Indy ref.

Jabberwok Sun 02-Feb-20 11:45:16

I think Scotland needs a cast iron deal with the EU before it casts care to the wind! Like the time limit between leaving the union and joining the EU. loose arrangements can be dodgy! Currency arrangements, the border between England and Scotland + trade arrangements, security, the armed forces, aircraft patrols, fishing rights, and goodness knows what else. All will take quite a bit of unraveling, as we are learning after 47 years, never mind 300+. If all this can be concluded satisfactorily, then bring it on! Not to have to listen to Ms Sturgeon any more would be an enormous relief! The sooner the better!

SirChenjin Sun 02-Feb-20 11:47:30

Switch her off if she bothers you Jabberwok. Interestingly there was no cast iron deal in place for the UK leaving the EU (and won’t be for some time, if ever) but that didn’t seem to bother you.

Jabberwok Sun 02-Feb-20 12:34:01

Unless it escaped your notice S.C we are a much bigger vastly more populated, much wealthier country in our own right, than Scotland. We could as a nation manage successfully on our own as the above are already in place particularly currency., and if we have to then we will! For Scotland to manage financially completely on their own would be ruinous. I think most people realise that, hence the need for outside support!

SirChenjin Sun 02-Feb-20 12:44:57

That’s not what I was referring to Jabberwok in case that escaped your notice.

Jabberwok Sun 02-Feb-20 14:04:13

(Shrug!)

SirChenjin Sun 02-Feb-20 15:21:58

Shrug back (your response warrants no more).

Granny23 Sun 02-Feb-20 20:18:14

Jabberwok* Not that much bigger.

Scottish Land Area 30,420 sqm England 50,300sqm

Scottish 'sea' [EEZ) 462,263 sqm RUK 311,413 sqm
Scotlan's sea would/will be even more if/when it reclaims the area which Tony Blair and Gordon Brown grabbed for England in 1998 at the height of the oil and gas boom.

As to population - Scotland had 20% of the UK population in 1707 at the time of Union, now reduced to 8.4%. Why? Think clearances, the brain drain, as Scotland was systematically subsumed and all power and wealth was shifted to London.

Granny23 Mon 03-Feb-20 09:52:58

From ITV News:

Former European Council president Donald Tusk has said Scotland would be welcomed into Europe “enthusiastically” if it won independence from the rest of the UK – but the process of rejoining would not be automatic.

Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Mr Tusk said he felt “very Scottish” following Brexit, adding that Scotland would be treated with “empathy” if they gain independence and look for a place at the EU table.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has signalled an intention to rejoin the European Union as a member should Scotland leave the UK, however her opponents have said there is no guaranteed access to the bloc.

On Friday, German MEP and European Greens co-president Ska Kellersaid it would be “stupid” of the 27 EU member states to veto the membership of an independent Scotland.

The comments from Mr Tusk come after a YouGov poll showed 51% support for independence – a majority for the first time in five years.

Urmstongran Mon 03-Feb-20 10:27:58

The comments from Mr Tusk come after a YouGov poll showed 51% support for independence – a majority for the first time in five years

Fair bough Granny23 but do bear in mind the YouGov poll was from 1,200 people. Scotland have 5 million voters!

Urmstongran Mon 03-Feb-20 10:28:40

*enough

MaizieD Mon 03-Feb-20 10:40:18

I think that supporters of Scottish independence might be interested in this blog post by Richard Murphy today. It's about the legal position of a state, in international law, which secedes without 'permission'.

In its judgement on Kosovo, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) specifically confirmed that the agreement of the state being seceded from was not necessary for Independence. That is the position in law, whatever any UK court may say. Indeed it was the UK government itself that put this argument most clearly to the ICJ in the Kosovo case.

www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/02/03/is-whitehall-right-to-be-afraid-of-scotland/

I'm posting this on the other Scotland thread, too.

Urmstongran Mon 03-Feb-20 10:51:36

Would this apply to Spain and Catalonia MaizieD?

MaizieD Mon 03-Feb-20 11:39:55

Possibly, Ug. I'm not conversant with International Law.

But, looking at the history of Kosovo, which has been a sort of geopolitical football for hundreds of years, and the history of Catalonia, which has been an integral part of Spain since the 15th century, I'd say that Catalonia might be least likely to benefit from this judgement.

However, Scotland is a recognised nation state and has been for hundreds of years, albeit in a union with its neighbour, England. I would suspect that that gives it a stronger case.

SirChenjin Mon 03-Feb-20 13:00:58

Scottish indy supporters (or at least the more strident amongst them) will of course look to other ways of securing their dream. However, it's not them Sturgeon has to convince - she has to convince the majority of us (as per all the previous polls apart from this latest one) that independence is a good thing. I could be persuaded to vote for it if there was a clear pathway for rejoining the EU - but at the moment Tusk and the Greens rep (Greens are pro indy) aren't really swaying it for me. I would definitely not vote for it if she tried to rush it through in some way that bypasses the current, established legislative process as suggested by the well known nationalist, Mr Murphy. If you think Brexit is divisive, try pulling a stunt like that and see what happens to unity in Scotland!

Jane10 Mon 03-Feb-20 13:04:04

The problem for us residents if Scotland is not couldwe just leave the UK but should we with this crassly incompetent SNP government trying to rule.
Just today it has emerged that almost £5 billion has been wiped off the value of the Scottish economy. Official figures show that Scottish GDP has been cut by 3% amounting to the £5 billion figure. These figures were published last week but were not announced by the govt in its economic press release issued on the same day. Wonder why not?!

SirChenjin Mon 03-Feb-20 13:06:56

Many might argue that we have an equally crassly incompetent UK Govt taking us out of the EU when the (sizeable) majority of us don't want to leave.

Rock/hard place springs to mind.

Granny23 Mon 03-Feb-20 13:12:29

But surely Jane the figures relate to a Brexited Scotland whose finances are mainly controlled from Westminster and therefore bear little resemblance to Scotland's economy once Independent and back in the EU?

SirChenjin Mon 03-Feb-20 13:16:19

Have you factored in the small matter of our deficit reduction there Granny which is required before we can rejoin?

gillyknits Mon 03-Feb-20 13:19:17

I’m a Daily Mail reader. Thank you for calling me ignorant.

SirChenjin Mon 03-Feb-20 13:39:32

To be fair to the OP, she called the DM posters ignorant not its readers grin