Can you think of a Prime Minister worse than Johnson?

lemongrove The decision to continue with Cheltenham wasn't Johnson's decision (as far as I know). However, Lady Dido Harding, who is now in charge of Test and Trace, almost certainly did have some say in the decision, as she's on the board of the Jockey Club, which is responsible for the Cheltenham Festival.

Matt Hancock also defended the decision. Newmarket is in his constituency, so I'd be surprised if he was totally neutral and objective.

On what scientific information is he basing his claim, that had the lock down been introduced a week earlier, the final death toll would have been reduced by half,

Maths, Smileless.

Left unchecked, number of cases rises exponentially. R =2 - 2.5 I believe.

Lockdown cuts contacts, reduces infection rate, fewer infections, -> fewer deaths.

It's not rocket science. That's why lots of us were distancing and isolating earlier.

Smileless I don't have the actual figures, but it works like this:

Let's say that on Day 0, there are 100 cases. Left unchecked, the number of infected people doubles every three days, so by Day 3 there are 200 cases.
By Day 6, there are 400 cases; Day 9 800 cases; Day 12 1600 cases; Day 15 3200 cases and so on.

The above is what was happening in the days before lockdown and until the effects worked through the system.

If R=1 (ie one person infects just one other person) there will be 100 cases on Day 0 and 100 cases on Day 15.

However, if the rate of transmission can be reduced, so hardly anybody infects anybody else, the numbers start to look very different, eg

Day 0 100 cases; Day 3 50 cases; Day 6 25 cases; Day 9 12 cases; Day 12 6 cases; Day 15 3 cases.

That can all be worked out mathematically. I don't have the exact data, but the scientists at Imperial College do and can work it out much more accurately.

In my example, it's easy to see that "locking down" makes a huge difference.

Once the number of infected people is manageable, It's possible to deal with them. If necessary, you could put them up in a luxury hotel for a couple of weeks, make sure they have everything they need, compensate them for loss of earnings, etc. They just need to be completely isolated. The virus would disappear because it has no host. It can't continue in the atmosphere for long.

Effectively, that's what New Zealand did and is now reaping the benefit. The UK dithered for too long until the numbers started getting out of control, which is why it's now so painful to return to anything like normal and there will be long term consequences.

Scientists (and others) are worried that we still haven't got the numbers low enough to risk a rise in infection rates. The UK is dithering again. It really does seem that decisions are being made for political reasons and to please voters rather than having a coherent plan to virtually eradicate infection. We have short term gain for long term pain, where it should be the other way round.

Why can’t this government just admit that they made a mistake? It’s all lies and bluster. We’d have far more respect for them if they apologised for being late with lockdown, not checking incoming travellers, sending sick patients back to care homes, encouraging VE Day celebrations etc

I have been watching a video put out by Kings College about the current reaction to covid by the U.K. government.

It was described as primitive and with little sense shown to many of the decisions.

They argued that all countries in Europe and the world have shown better skill at handling the epidemic.

The U.K. has the worst rates both deaths and infection per million population In the world.

I think the answer is to ignore government advise entirely and listen to science.

The French equivalent to our body of medicine are strongly advising vitamin D supplements.

It's not just about apologising, but about acting now by learning from mistakes.

The virus could be more or less eradicated without vaccine, if we had a strictly enforced lockdown - even now.

Instead of that, Johnson is more concerned about his popularity and keeps throwing out sweeteners to the public. They've been allowed to think of it as being "released" from confinement (ie some form of punishment) rather than isolation being a necessary part of a strategy.

As a result, businesses and children's education are suffering far longer than they need have done - not forgetting the people who have died unnecessarily and others who will have long term health impairment.

Britain cannot stay in lockdown indefinitely. Many Businesses have realised that after nearly three months their survival now depends on getting their operations working again for there is no other way forward. In that, innovation and cooperation with all staff and suppliers involved in bringing about those safe reopenings have been outstanding over the last two weeks to the huge credit of all involved.

There is no way of unlocking Britain without risk. However, assessing those risks and reducing them to within reasonable parameters has been outstanding in a great many establishments that are now once more trading again.

Schools, the hospitality and tourist industries will be required to demonstrate that same innovation so as to bring their undertakings back into public use, and that it would seem is sadly lacking in many of those who work within those fields.

We are where we are in terms of this crisis and have to go forward from that perspective. To remain in lockdown with the excuse it is not safe to move forward is not an option that anyone who resides in Britain can sustain into the future.

^ They've been allowed to think of it as being "released" from confinement (ie some form of punishment) rather than isolation being a necessary part of a strategy.^

Well put growstuff

Good post Grandad 1943
We do need to move forward as a country, as you say, hiding away indefinitely is not an option.

Digest: June 10 – all the news the Establishment won’t want you to read
As ever, the social media is boiling over with useful information that the Great and the Good don’t want you to know.

Consider:

The Government’s policy on Covid-19 continues to be a fiasco:

I like The Times Cartoon of Johnson. Late for everything.

Take your pick
It's what people are saying.

voxpoliticalonline.com/2020/06/10/digest-june-10-all-the-news-the-establishment-wont-want-you-to-read/

So at the moment our economic done turn is forecast to be 11.5% - a serious level.

If we eased lockdown too swiftly or without any plan going forward. A place with which this government is very familiar then there is almost certainly going to be a second wave, according to scientists at Kings College.

R is perilously close to 1 in many areas of the country.

When the second wave hits the OECD and BoE forecast that the economy will retract a further % to 14%, and given the fact that Johnson is apparently hell bent on perusing the hardest of Brexit, then we are in for a very rocky time indeed.

More care over the easy of lockdown seems a very attractive prospect at the moment.

I for one will not be following Johnson’s advise, but I have the privilege of not having to.

Extinction rebellion wasn't very good idea either! No condemnation of the Mayor of Bristol for allowing that to go ahead?!
I certainly can't remember any PM dealing with a similar crisis as there has not been anything comparable in the west for 63 years!

This isn’t a thread about the Mayor Bristol is it? Plenty of political leaders have made a better job of dealing with this pandemic than Johnson - he ranks about the worst.

Throughout the world governments are unlocking their nation's economies. If Britain is not in step with that development then British businesses will sustain long term damage as the products and services they supply will be met by their overseas competitors.

For Britain to sit on its communal backside is not an option when all others return to once again working and begin to fill any void left by UK industries.

Schools also have to join the reopening of the British economy if there is not to be a whole generation damaged by this lockdown.

Perhaps ignoring all the scientists warnings , and opening the economy is the way forward, I’m sure a second wave forecast to be worse than the first wave will be dealt with just as well. ? I believe the term primitive has been used by the scientists.

There is a 10 million waiting list forecast for cancer, heart etc. by December. A second wave will ensure many of those folk will die as well bringing the nhs completely to its knees opening the way for an American style health system, which is watching and waiting in the wings.

Bring it on many will be saying.

Again Grandad, another post of realistic common sense, and again thank you for your input.
So in order to criticise someone, there has to be a thread specifically about them?!! The Mayor of Bristol behaved extremely foolishly,but of course we must not deflect from the arch villain! I can understand why he didn't cancel! All hell would have been let loose and he would have been accused of God knows what! Much easier to let it run and hope for the best! Bit like Cheltenham!!

You wish WW2!!

Throughout the world governments are unlocking their nation's economies. If Britain is not in step with that development then British businesses will sustain long term damage

Other governments are unlocking their nations' economies because their infection and death rates have come down to very low figures, or none at all. We are still recording over 1,000 new infections per day and 200+ deaths. More deaths per day than we had when we originally locked down after a fashion

If this means that in a few week's time we are into a second wave then we will, I assume, have to lock down again and any economic gains made in those few weeks will be wiped out. the whole exercise will have been pointless and engendered more deaths into the bargain.

I am also of the apparently majority opinion that Boris is not a fit person to represent our Country. I am appalled each time I see him!
Wish the Green Party had more clout!

Youre2 kidding!!!!

Who is 'kidding', Jabberwok?

A short, sharp of properly enforced lockdown would have allowed the country to move forward safely much sooner.

People who think it's safe to resume "business as usual" are sticking their heads in the sand about the consequences.

Unfortunately, Johnson has pandered to the populists and sandheaders.

Just listening to Nicola Sturgeon and trying to imagine Johnson talking in such an eloquent and lucid way.

According to Tory insider Tim Montgomedie, Dominic Cummings is overseeing a reign of terror in Downing Street

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-tim-montgomery-downing-street-a9561056.html