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The OECD predict the U.K. will have the biggest economic downturn and that is before brexit

(30 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 11-Jun-20 08:09:40

The OECD has predicted that the U.K. s downturn will be approximately 11.5% followed by France at 11.4%, Italy 11.3% Spain by 11.1%.

The OECD said that the task before these governments is immense and it will be a long haul back to levels before covid. In the UKs case our economy was stagnating anyway.

To add to our woes, if as is almost certain the U.K. has to impose a second lockdown as a result of a second wave this winter, then the downturn will rise to 14%. The Bank of England’s concur with the figures.

So if we add in the predicted hit that will occur by a hard Brexit then this government is well on the way to destroying our economy, our children’s/grandchildren’s prospects and our standard of living for many years to come. In fact we may never fully recover.

lemongrove Thu 11-Jun-20 08:28:45

As you say, many European countries including ourselves, have a mountain to climb, where the economy is concerned over the coming years.

gillybob Thu 11-Jun-20 09:00:31

It’s terrifying Whitewave.

I have 5 quotes out for work right now. All are telling me that they are very happy with the price and that they are just waiting for the “go ahead” from the powers that be ........ it seems that everyone in industry is kind of holding their breath and reluctant to take that leap of faith .

I have already seen a few small businesses fold and to be honest we are hanging on by the skin of our teeth . I know of at least 3 large employers who will be making large scale redundancies once the furlough scheme ends .

I’m sorry to bring Brexit into this thread but this, together with Covid will see the North East and some other industrial areas decimated . All very depressing .

growstuff Thu 11-Jun-20 13:33:27

I fear you are right gillybob. It would cost billions to level up the North East, as promised. It depends how many votes the Conservatives think it will win in four years. It would involve tax increases for the English shire Conservatives and I've heard it's already causing tension.

You've become a political pawn.

I really hope that your business can hang on.

MaizieD Thu 11-Jun-20 15:58:46

There's no reason for it to involve tax increases, growstuff, taxation doesn't fund spending, don't forget.

Any money created to invest in the NE (and other regions) would come back to the government anyway through taxation. The only money that wouldn't come back straight away would be any that was saved, and, sadly, profits of large companies squirrelled away in tax havens or 'assigned' to parent companies not registered in the UK. (Which would be a compelling reason for using local companies/UK registered companies). There must be large scale infrastructure projects, such as the Metro extension and dualling the A1 past Newcastle, which would feed the investment back into the local economies by way of wages and services. There should also be green projects, too such as expansion of green energy sources, insulation programmes, fitting solar panels to housing.

Not to mention investment in health and social care...

It would all put money into the local economies and, as I said, would most of it come winging back to the treasury through taxation.

Of course, that was what Roosevelt did to revive the US economy in the 1930s with his New Deal.

It has been shown time and time again that it is money from the state which drives growth and prosperity. See Mariana Mazzucato...

Something radical will have to be done else, between Covid and no deal Brexit there will be millions out of work.

Urmstongran Thu 11-Jun-20 16:06:32

Many eminent scientists don’t think there will be a second wave.
Some also think that s time goes by the virus itself will weaken considerably.

Brexit will happen. It’s been voted for (directly and indirectly) by the majority of people who bothered to turn out to vote.

Many economists are optimistic of a deal. Even at the 11th hour.

MaizieD Thu 11-Jun-20 18:00:30

Oh, FGS, Ug. Don't need reminding that Brexit will happen. We left the EU on 31st January, didn't we. The worry is the refusal to ask for an extension to transition and the very real possibility of no deal.

None of the economists I follow are in the least bit optimistic about a deal.

None of the trade deal experts I follow are in the least bit optimistic of a good deal.

And pinning any hopes on the virus weakening over time is just irresponsible. Plans have to be for worst case, not best.

Now can you turn your attention to the actual topic being discussed here?

GrannyGravy13 Thu 11-Jun-20 18:04:10

There has been a report released in Italy by two Professors stating that they have seen several positive indicators that the virus is weakening.

GrannyGravy13 Thu 11-Jun-20 18:08:52

I posted on another Brexit Doom Thread that if Monsieur Barnier and Co. were interested in negotiating as opposed to dictating maybe things could move towards a deal
beneficial to all?

Businesses do not like uncertainty which is why so many do not want an extension.

Good news regarding Unilever who have decided not to relocate their HQ to mainland Europe but remain in the UK.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 12-Jun-20 06:46:18

Good news!! Johnson has u-turned on border checks to ease the inflow of goods.

This recognises a number of things.

They can’t recruit the level of customs staff needed.
Customs staff take at least 18 months to train to the minimum standard and much longer to become a competent officer.

Food shortages will occur through delays at the border, s post covid and the issues we had with empty shelves, the government doesnt think the British population will tolerate another bungling of good supply.

Goods entering the EU from the U.K. will be subject to all checks.

Hardly a level playing field, in fact it has become the direct opposite to what they sold to us.

Project fear in reverse????

vegansrock Fri 12-Jun-20 06:52:31

Brexit is A self inflicted ideological wound, which will be of no benefit to anyone apart from the Rees Moggs of this world, certainly not the minority of the population who voted for it.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 12-Jun-20 07:30:22

Blimey economy shrunk by over 20% in April.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 12-Jun-20 07:35:03

Of course the border check issue means that the EU businesses will not have the expense related to the checks, but our businesses will have the full cost and delay. They will find it difficult to compete with Eu businesses who don’t have this expense.

Just what they need after the double whammy of covid and Brexit.

I have full confidence that Johnson’s Brexit team know what they are doing???

Whitewavemark2 Fri 12-Jun-20 08:02:03

A lesson this government has signally learned to do as evidence by the border u-turn with the powerful EU

“An early lesson I learnt from international negotiations: if you are going to threaten a larger entity, who is bearing less risk than you are, it's essential to get your ducks in a row first“

Whitewavemark2 Fri 12-Jun-20 08:12:58

A case of severe amnesia?

Whitewavemark2 Fri 12-Jun-20 08:37:29

What’s the betting that the government will have to do a u turn to and accept transition extension as how on earth can it be right that our businesses will be subject to full border controls after December but the EU businesses will sale into Britain without hindrance?!

lemongrove Fri 12-Jun-20 08:56:43

It makes sense for businesses this year ww and maybe even the following year.It’s simply a sensible move to do it, anything that helps at this time is welcome.

MayBee70 Fri 12-Jun-20 09:39:49

Maybe not going ahead with brexit would help even more. Of all the stupid times to leave the EU. Especially as one of the main reasons for brexit was to protect our borders and we ended up, in the middle of a pandemic, being one of the few countries not to do so.

gillybob Fri 12-Jun-20 09:45:45

I wish MayBee but I can’t see it happening some how.

EllanVannin Fri 12-Jun-20 09:48:32

I thought the same MayBee.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 12-Jun-20 10:39:57

I suspect the next u-turn will be the quarantine law.

Another nonsense decision by a government who is clueless.

MaizieD Fri 12-Jun-20 10:51:16

Of course the border check issue means that the EU businesses will not have the expense related to the checks, but our businesses will have the full cost and delay.

I'm struggling to see how this 'makes sense' for UK businesses, lemon.

It might help businesses which source products from the EU, particularly 'just in time', but certainly not those which export to the EU.

MaizieD Fri 12-Jun-20 10:52:33

Maybe not going ahead with brexit would help even more.

We can't do that. We're already out. But extending the transition period would be very sensible.

growstuff Fri 12-Jun-20 10:56:49

Have you read Richard Murphy's blog today Maizie? Unfortunately, it seems that there's an anti-MMT group, including many left wing economists. I'm afraid there will be tax increases, even if it isn't the sensible thing to do.

growstuff Fri 12-Jun-20 10:57:49

Which eminent scientists Urmstongran? Do you have any links?