Anyone live in Leicester? The lockdown there has been extended.

This article in the FT explains what's happened:

www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a

The government has been publishing the full national totals, but not the regional data. It also explains why the statistics for Wales have been more accurate than in England.

Sad that a whole city is paying the price for the irresponsible behaviour of a smaller number.

You can bet that Leicester won't be the only city to experience a surge like this.

It's absolutely essential that local authorities have real time data if schools and other places are going to operate safely. They need the power to lockdown almost immediately to contain the spread.

Johnson claimed the government knew about the spike in Leicester on 8 June but "unfortunately it did not prove possible to get the results seen elsewhere". Errrmmm ... why not?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53244626

Many thanks to growstuff for explaining this is about numbers testing positive, not deaths.

Are all Mayors and local public health directors going to see the Pillar 2 figures from now on?

I think so. Andy Burnham has just published the figures for Manchester. Apparently, the level of those who have tested positive in Manchester is six times higher than thought.

It's silly really because if the death rate is decreasing, while the number testing positive is increasing, it means that the percentage dying from the virus is lower than thought, which is a positive thing.

It all sounds a bit like Trump, who wants to stop testing, so the numbers go down.

Forgot the link:

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/government-finally-releases-greater-manchester-18496597

Bradford and Barnsley may have to go into lockdown too.

Probably means more younger people are getting the virus, which isn’t at all surprising given the marches, raves, street parties etc.

Less people are dying because it’s mainly older people who are badly affected.

but matt hancock mentioned that schools in leicester would have to close as children were particularly affected.
many people have queried this.
but i don't remember hearing a convincing explanation.

'but matt hancock mentioned that schools in leicester would have to close as children were particularly affected.*
What he means is that many children are testing positive and can then pass it on. Children don't usually get it seriously but they can still get it and they can pass it on. So can contribute to it spreading.

Less people are dying because it’s mainly older people who are badly affected.

Oh, so that makes it OK, does it? There are still a great many 'older people' left who are endangered by this, and it seems to be forgotten that a) younger people die of it too, and there is a very real danger of it causing permanent damage to people who have apparently recovered from it.

But then, I suppose, with the prospect of mass unemployment in sight it won't hurt to have a few more thousand deaths. Won't have to pay the universal credit... or the pensions of the 'older ones'.

The importance of cases is as great as that of deaths
Yes it is excellent news if the death rate is going down - that may be due to a variety of factors, earlier diagnosis, more targeted and effective treatment, a lower average age of patients, fewer underlying health factors, plus I don’t know what else.
However if the number of cases is increasing, that could mean more deaths in the near future, depending on who has been infected and also, that the virus has taken hold in the community. What is in the community will also appear in the hospitals and care homes both among patients and staff.

Exactly, MawB. A lowered death rate at the moment is no guarantee for the future.

Who said it was?

Deaths are down but positive cases are up, particularly for people in their 20’s and 30’s according to the news.

Rochdale and/or Oldham might be next.

I expect they will be looking at what the affected towns have in common.

Paddy anne, once again fake news on Facebook which you choose to believe. After all it's a chance to knock the government. It's dreadful for the people of Leicester and the expense and trouble it's put businesses to getting ready to open Saturday. This lockdown has occurred because of mindless individuals flouting the no distancing rules. Crowds gather, the police can only do do much, their hands are tied unless we become a police state, every step they take to quell them, violence erupts. The same people who if they get it will need tgecNHS. People have caused this, it's not a time to wallow in the fact it must be the governments fault. Rubbish. We know the rules, we know how Corona spreads, it's a pity the decent people have to suffer because of selfish, lawless individuals. How many have seen people touting the rules and said nothing? I hope they are pleased. It makes a mockery of the Thursday clapping. The sooner Facebook is no more the better. Take responsibility for your own actions.

What did paddyanne write which was fake news? Sorry, I can't find it.

It seems nobody really knows the source or cause of the spike in Leicester.

Apparently, quite a high percentage are under 19. The average (mean) age of all infected is young(ish), which is possibly why there haven't been that many deaths.

Death rates usually lag a couple of weeks or longer behind infection rates. It is being reported that it is mainly under 19s and workers that are driving these infection rates.

Probable cause? Infection spreading in schools and the workplace. If these then get passed on to 60+ relatives we can expect a rise in deaths, especially given the high percentage of BAME folks in Leicester.

Hope I’m wrong.

Did anyone see Peter Soulsby at his press conference though ? Very smiley, saying well yes, he did break the rules and visited a sick friend but she’s living with him now ! So that’s alright then ??
As to why the numbers are high in Leicester, many of the mosques remained open and men congregated outside after prayers and several hosiery factories ignored the ruling of businesses to close during lockdown. Add these factors to social distancing not being observed, people not staying home and it’s hardly surprising that Leicester is in a local lockdown. I feel so sad for small business owners who’ve spent money making everything as safe as possible and they still can’t open!
I’m in Leicestershire and know that there are several pubs in my town and surrounding villages that won’t be opening at the weekend as they don’t want to risk people travelling here from Leicester !

Good old English pub owners for being so sensible. Naughty Muslims for keeping mosques open.

Actually the first is hearsay and the second is a load of bollocks!

Well, maybe!

The government has already produced a report on the spike in Leicester and the cause remains a puzzle. It doesn't appear to have anything to do with mosques or big gatherings.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/897128/COVID-19_activity_Leicester_Final-report_010720_v3.pdf

Some of the main points in the report are:

1 There are a similar number of males and females.

2 The majority of cases are between 18-65, with the number under 18 increasing.

3 The number of infections reflects the ethnic profile of the population ie approximately 50/50.

4 There is an excess of infections in the young and middle-aged, which isn't happening across England as a whole.

5 It's being suggested that the rise might not be quite so bad as it appears, but could be the result of more testing. It's possible it's always been at this level.