David Henig (UK Director @ecipe, making sense of Brexit & Trade/ also global trade policy/ TTIP veteran) has done a good thread explaining what the problems are for exporters and importers.
"How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?"
"In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin."
"The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/"
"Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31"
"Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/"
I won't post the whole thread but it's an illuminating read.
twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1347468916872912896
Of course, at the end we have a Brexit moron response
"Sanjay Nayyar
@Cyberspace_7
Replying to
@DavidHenigUK
Having decided that all of these stories from big business is arse covering for price rises. I’m also beginning to think it’s arse covering for their failure to lobby politicians for a better deal or explaining the impact earlier to the public."