What I think will happen tomorrow

"Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice used the survey results to draw up seat predictions for Thursday's vote.
According to his analysis, the SNP would win 68 seats, while Conservatives win 26, five fewer than in 2016.
Labour would win 17, down seven, the LibDems four, down one, and Alex Salmond’s Alba Party would return one MSP."

Urmstongran

He is the Tory candidate up against Sadiq Khan for Mayor of London.

Regards Labour.
The people aren't abandoning Labour, its Labour who have abandoned them. If you are a white, able-bodied heterosexual you may as well be invisible. If you like your country you have no place in the Labour movement. Same if you respect our Armed Forces, voted Leave, think gender is a biological fact rather than a state of mind, aren't ashamed of our history and rather like the idea of deporting foreign rapists and murderers.

Labour have become the vehicle for every woke crackpot movement in the country and as a result they no longer resonate with the more properly adjusted working classes who are less concerned about taking a knee than jobs, good schools and safe streets.

Labour needs a clear out if they are to survive. Time to get back to their roots.

You've include just about all the myths which people have come to believe.

. . . think gender is a biological fact rather than a state of mind

Which of the parties takes a different view from this one? As far as I can see, none of them is willing to say that a woman is an adult human female. All the parties are colluding in the idea that a woman is anyone who says they are one.

It's a certainty that Labour will lose Hartlepool, but it will be interesting to see what percentage vote Labour.

Since Peter Mandelson stepped down in 2004, Labour has only won an outright majority there twice.

In 2005, 2015 and 2019, Labour won because UKIP or the Brexit Party split the right-wing vote. Labour only crept in because the opposition was divided.

In 2019, the Brexit Party polled 25.8% and was tipped to win. Those people won't transfer their vote to Labour, but the Conservatives, who have taken on the mantle of UKIP and the Brexit Party.

The total Conservative and Brexit Party percentage in 2019 was 54.7%, so I would expect the Conservative to win with something like that vote tomorrow.

Doodledog

*. . . think gender is a biological fact rather than a state of mind*

Which of the parties takes a different view from this one? As far as I can see, none of them is willing to say that a woman is an adult human female. All the parties are colluding in the idea that a woman is anyone who says they are one.

But there you have it! It's because believe that kind of nonsense that Johnson continues to pick up votes. It's really not that difficult to come to the conclusion that people who believe it don't ever read beyond headlines.

Urmstongran

He is the Tory candidate up against Sadiq Khan for Mayor of London.

Regards Labour.
The people aren't abandoning Labour, its Labour who have abandoned them. If you are a white, able-bodied heterosexual you may as well be invisible. If you like your country you have no place in the Labour movement. Same if you respect our Armed Forces, voted Leave, think gender is a biological fact rather than a state of mind, aren't ashamed of our history and rather like the idea of deporting foreign rapists and murderers.

Labour have become the vehicle for every woke crackpot movement in the country and as a result they no longer resonate with the more properly adjusted working classes who are less concerned about taking a knee than jobs, good schools and safe streets.

Labour needs a clear out if they are to survive. Time to get back to their roots.

Nothing nuanced about your prejudice is there?

There in stark black and white for all to see.

Extreme is certainly what your post is about though.

I think your predictions are pretty accurate suzie

Suzie Shaun Bailey is rather more than hopeless. In short, he’s a piece of work. The fact that he’s the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London says a great deal about how extreme the Conservative party has become, in my humble view.
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/07/shaun-bailey-accused-of-worst-kind-of-casual-sexism-and-misogyny-2007-interview-abortion

I also agree with those predictions- but then what?

Who will replace Keir Starmer? Will Boris call an election? Will a real centre party appear?

Granny23, I too believe Alex Salmond's party will return only one MP, who would, unfortunately be Alex Salmond.

What DH and I couldn't figure out last week, was why the van which was carrying people canvassing in our street, had both the SNP and Alba party logos painted on it. ?

I now have a permanent postal vote, due to my deteriorating wealth. I have used my second vote strategically and I hope, wisely.
My dilemma was that a friend, ex colleague, and former schoolmate's son is standing as the Labour candidate. I am not a Labour supporter, but know he would make an excellent MSP.
I cannot wait to Saturday or perhaps Sunday to see how it all pans out.

kittylester

I also agree with those predictions- but then what?

Who will replace Keir Starmer? Will Boris call an election? Will a real centre party appear?

No KS won’t resign
No BJ won’t call an election
No

My father would not recognise his beloved Labour Party Urmstongran. All his life he was an active member. Although we had different views, his were coloured mainly by his time in the war and what he witnessed, he could discuss differences in a rational way and respected others views, the very opposite of what the party is now for all the reasons you state. To support Corbyn was unbelievable. Now there is a multi millionaire lawyer head of Labour, not speaking against the woke movement and the social disruption. My grandchildren will grow up thinking this is how grown ups behave and therefore acceptable. We have as a nation readily let these bullies have almost free reign. I am glad I'm the age I am, despite the financial hardships in the first third of my life I worked and made it better and didn't blame the world for my problems and expect others to pick up the tab. A member of my family who has unfortunately never taken responsibility and gets every benefit going despite not wanting to work. I say not wanting he's more than capable., Whitewave, it's you that shouts predudice if you think having moral values is wrong that otgers can't stand this woke, taking the knee etc. I would be interested if any of these protestors actualy work, it must be awful working along side one with all their entitlement and angst.,Heaven knows what would have happened if labour had been in power through this pandemic, but they do come up with solutions after the event.

janeainsworth

Suzie Shaun Bailey is rather more than hopeless. In short, he’s a piece of work. The fact that he’s the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London says a great deal about how extreme the Conservative party has become, in my humble view.
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/07/shaun-bailey-accused-of-worst-kind-of-casual-sexism-and-misogyny-2007-interview-abortion

Urm as you are a Trump supporter and decided also that Biden had dementia, I’ll pass on taking any of your political thoughts and judgements with anything more than the proverbial pinch of salt.

Sorry jane don’t know how your quote ended up there!

suziewoozie, Apart from Boris not call a GE that's all very disappointing.

What is going to be depressing tomorrow will be the endless commentary on the results and the spin from all sides. I know this always happens but this year the context of the pandemic is truly unprecedented and.makes comparisons with the past even more meaningless than usual. grow’s analysis of the Hartlepool situation is interesting and I would venture accurate.
I think tomorrow is a day for R3.
I saw Caroline Lucas on C4 news last night and not for the first time decided I wanted her to be Queen of the World.?

kittylester

*suziewoozie*, Apart from Boris not call a GE that's all very disappointing.

Why would he call a GE?

Isn’t by far the biggest ‘what after’ will the SNP get enough seats to give them a mandate for Scotland to seek and potentially gain independence - none of the other outcomes would fundamentally change the UK?

I think your predictions are pretty accurate suziewoosie, I don’t think there will be many shocks.

Urmstongran what a great post. Couldn’t have said it better myself. Well done you ?????

Ginster and ditto from me

Casdon

Isn’t by far the biggest ‘what after’ will the SNP get enough seats to give them a mandate for Scotland to seek and potentially gain independence - none of the other outcomes would fundamentally change the UK?

I think your predictions are pretty accurate suziewoosie, I don’t think there will be many shocks.

I’m sure you’re right about this - all the other results are straws in the wind no matter how they are spun tomorrow. Except Wales will be interesting to see how Plaid does and what that might say longer term - but apart from really respecting how well Drakeford has led during the last year, I’m obviously not keyed into Welsh politics. I just think he’s interesting politically - a leader who comes across as a thoughtful grown up who is dependable and reliable and not the least exciting .

Gingster

Urmstongran what a great post. Couldn’t have said it better myself. Well done you ?????

Completely agree. Excellent post ?

now there is a multi millionaire lawyer head of Labour,not speaking out against the women movement and social disruption
Starmer grew up in a council flat. Education was important to his parents. He didn’t know much about working in law, didn’t realise the difference between barristers and solicitors.
He worked hard, became successful, did so much pro Bono work, the head of his chambers told him he needed to earn, it he’d never get a mortgage.
The division, polarisation of views in this country is set out again on this thread.

Given that we all think Labour will do well in Wales, do you think Urmstongran that the Welsh voters are people who hate their country and the Armed Forces, voted Remain (it's Wales, remember?) are ashamed of our history? I left out all the offensive bits of your diatribe.

And sparkling, I'd rather children grew up thinking it was the right thing to protest injustice, and looked to an international human rights lawyer for leadership, instead of thinking it was ok to take bungs, spend other people's money and have a bit on the side when your partner is seriously ill.

“ If you like your country you have no place in the Labour movement. ”

Sweeping statement of the week.

???

(I don’t vote Labour currently by the way....in spite of being classed as a loony leftie by some on GN)