Batley and Spen by-election

trisher

That's an interesting question. Previous LP candidates have had a majority of over 3000, so something went wrong. If only half of the people who voted for GG had supported the Labour Party then the majority would have been around the same. A leftwing candidate could have brought in all of GGs votes-so the loss of a few thousand centrists would still have resulted in a decent majority.

It's all a bit academic really, isn't it. As Galloway's intention was to get Starmer out, he would still have stood, putting in a left wing candidate could still have resulted in a split vote. And could have lost centrist votes...

What went wrong was the lies and half truths peddled by some of the candidates together with the mindset of a proportion of the local population.

That's an interesting question. Previous LP candidates have had a majority of over 3000, so something went wrong. If only half of the people who voted for GG had supported the Labour Party then the majority would have been around the same. A leftwing candidate could have brought in all of GGs votes-so the loss of a few thousand centrists would still have resulted in a decent majority.

I dont think you can unite centrists and those who vote for Galloway. I think you can unite those who voted for Corbyn and centrists for example but not Galloway.

Thanks goodness KL won, how depressing would it be if the Conservatives had won or even worse Mr Galloway had won (shudder!). *Trisher surely the issue is not how many of the voters would have voted for a proper left wing candidate but how do you unite those who voted for GG and KL to vote for the same candidate? The LP candidate should have won by a country mile but I think a more left wing candidate than KL would have lost.

And so some are predicting that there will be an upsurge of support from centrist voters. Could one ask where these were in Batley &Spen? There were 8000+ left wingers who voted for Galloway, presumably they can be disregarded, but some imaginary Labour voters will mysteriously appear from somewhere to save the LP. And I'm the one who can't accept reality??? Think about why those people voted as they did and how a left wing Labour candidate might have kept those votes and had a decent majority. And remember Starmer promised to unite the party.

growstuff

Yes, it is winning. That's how the system works.

She won. It was a good result, even if not a great one. She talked meaningfully about what she hoped to achieve and she looks determined enough to do it.
KS trying to relate it to football was embarrassing, but who cares?
She only won by a few hundred votes. You can see why some don’t see it as a win, when a win of 1,269,501 votes on another occasion was still not seen as a definitive outcome.

It’s been a Labour seat for 24 years, since 1997.
The % loss of votes for Labour was greater in 2019 in this constituency than in this election,
I like a good quote, here’s one that fits.
“It is not possible to step twice into the same river”
Heraclitus – renowned, pre-Socratic Greek philosopher – It links to the philosophical idea that everything is constantly changing: life, people and the world around us are different from one minute to the next. Learn to adapt and appreciate the moment – you’ll never get it again.

growstuff

As a side issue, the defeated Tory candidate seems quite a decent sort of person. I wouldn't mind betting he'll be back in a safer seat. The country could do with a bit of decency.

It certainly could. Leadbetter seems decent.

As a side issue, the defeated Tory candidate seems quite a decent sort of person. I wouldn't mind betting he'll be back in a safer seat. The country could do with a bit of decency.

Maybe a decade in Johnson-speak only lasts 3.5 years. Maybe he's one of those people who gets confused with inches and centimetres.

growstuff

Batley and Spen was Tory from 1983-1997.

Johnson said today that Batley and Spen had been Labour for 7 decades. DH said to me that’s another lie.

Batley and Spen was Tory from 1983-1997.

Just a few days away, the Conservative was odds on favourite to win and Leadbetter was trailing by a few percentage points, so she did well to progress from that point.
And no one else thinks this is tragic given that this has been a Labour seat for 30 years, and we've got a hopeless, corrupt Tory government but they were still forecast to win!!!
Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one other such victory would utterly undo him

Its like that junior Tory minister on the radio who claimed it was a “win for the conservatives”, fortunately the interviewer put her right,

The message I'm taking away is that Leadbetter won, despite a dirty campaign by others. Just a few days away, the Conservative was odds on favourite to win and Leadbetter was trailing by a few percentage points, so she did well to progress from that point.

trisher

Try looking at the bigger picture- she won but did the LP? Try asking yourslf why some people didn't vote and some voted for Galloway.
But I fully accept it's opening Pandora's box and some would prefer to pretend everything in the garden is lovely. So carry on saying she won if it makes you feel better.

Er ..... well, seeing as she polled the most votes, in my book that does make her the winner. Nothing to do with making me feel better ?

trisher to answer your last question, this is who’s left (or some of them at least): loyal middle of the road Labour members who believe that the party can’t stay stuck in the past, new young people and some of the former Corbynistas, disillusioned Tories, voters who are pragmatists and socialist like most people on this thread and in fact many people I mix with. And last but not least of course, enough voters to keep the Batley and Spen seat against the odds in a dishonest campaign.

You are right when you say the message is clear, but what a number of us are struggling to understand is why you aren’t hearing what the message actually is. None of us have said it’s all wonderful, but what we are saying is that this way lies hope.

MayBee70

trisher:. Just be honest and admit that you wanted Kim to lose…..

I don’t think I need an answer to this….which really saddens me….

Trisher, your 'So carry on saying she won if it makes you feel better' (12.06 today) sounds a bit Trumpish. Not sure what you mean by it. She did win.

Narrow majorities can happen under the first past the post system. This isn't the first and it won't be the last. And there have been narrower.

Whitewavemark2

Labour Party members who supported Galloway are being given the sack.

Corbyn, Naomi Wimborne-Idrissi,the wrong sort of Jews, young people, black people, the red wall, now Galloway voters, you start to wonder who will be left?

Labour Party members who supported Galloway are being given the sack.

GrannyGravy13

Didn’t The Calendar Girls come from Batley WI?

Their WI was Rylstone & District. Not sure how close that is to Batley.

Since Labour first took the seat in 1997 they have consistently had more than 40% of the vote-sometimes much more. This continued throughout Corbyn's leadership. The percentage now has fallen to 35%. This doesn't bode well for the party. I can imagine the outcry there would have been had Corbyn still been Labour leader. Galloway- nutter, socialist, left winger gained 21%
Seems a pretty clear message to me.

I don't suppose there is anybody claiming that everything in the garden is lovely.

No, one MP doesn't make a huge difference when the government has such a big majority. However, a loss would have made a big difference to the people trying to oust Starmer. Don't forget Galloway's main message. That's negative, divisive campaigning.

It's a significant win. It's ridiculous that 300 votes made such a big difference, but that's the system we have and pragmatists have to find a way to make it work in their favour.