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New YouGov MRP model shows Conservatives losing up to 32 seats in the Red Wall

(46 Posts)
PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 12:48:47

Just an update here.

Not suprising.

PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 12:53:40

Sorry, got called away.

Now, however, YouGov data shows the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck in the so called ‘Red Wall’ of pivotal Northern, Midlands, and North Wales constituencies. A multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of constituency vote intention shows that the Conservatives could be set to lose up to 32 Red Wall seats to Labour, if an election were held tomorrow.

Alegrias1 Mon 04-Oct-21 12:57:57

That's an interesting poll PippaZ, thanks for posting it.

Visgir1 Mon 04-Oct-21 13:13:38

But would still have a majority.

PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 13:18:52

However, the Conservative lead is certainly slender and fragile – as a brief Labour lead in the polls two weeks ago after the National Insurance tax rise announcement showed.

Lincslass Mon 04-Oct-21 13:23:41

Let’s wait and see shall we. Absolutely wanting the end of this Government will not make it happen. Wishful thinking abounds , if it happens it happens, what will happen if it happens and the red team get in, the welfare state will get even bigger than it did under Blair.

MaizieD Mon 04-Oct-21 13:23:56

A much reduced majority, though. Which could enable the opposition parties to have a greater influence in parliament. At present they are quite helpless.

Losing 32 seats would reduce their working majority from 83 to 37 (though I haven't accounted for the 8 DUP seats, which might, or might not, vote with the government)

Still looks like a comfortable majority, but potential for rebellions to put a spanner in the works.

MaizieD Mon 04-Oct-21 13:25:47

Lincslass

Let’s wait and see shall we. Absolutely wanting the end of this Government will not make it happen. Wishful thinking abounds , if it happens it happens, what will happen if it happens and the red team get in, the welfare state will get even bigger than it did under Blair.

That's fine. Lincslass. We're perfectly happy for you to wait and see.

In the meantime we'll take an interest in what is going on with the electorate. You can be absolutely sure that the tories are deeply interested...

Alegrias1 Mon 04-Oct-21 13:26:32

Absolutely wanting the end of this Government will not make it happen.

erm...I think it will. That's how democracy works confused

PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 13:54:52

Lincslass

Let’s wait and see shall we. Absolutely wanting the end of this Government will not make it happen. Wishful thinking abounds , if it happens it happens, what will happen if it happens and the red team get in, the welfare state will get even bigger than it did under Blair.

I didn't put it on as wishful thinking. I put it on to report some statistics "Lincslass". Of course, they can change and change again. It does give us some insight into the countries thinking - is that so bad? I do appreciate it is not what you want to hear; does that mean no one should?

aonk Mon 04-Oct-21 13:59:35

I don’t understand why so many people want to see an end to the current government. Surely we need to accept that more voters wanted it than the alternative? I don’t feel there is currently a credible, workable alternative. When there is them it will be time for a change.

PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 14:05:46

I'll wait for someone else to say it.

MaizieD Mon 04-Oct-21 14:18:06

I'll say it, Pippa

Surely we need to accept that more voters wanted it than the alternative?

43% of those who voted wanted the tories, 57% of those who vote didn't want the tories.

You are confusing seats in parliament with number of votes cast.

More voters didn't want the tories.

I can't actually see any alternatives as being more stupid, callous and incompetent than the tories.

ayse Mon 04-Oct-21 14:24:34

As I said on another thread, remember Amersham on HS2 trading line. It went Libdems.

I live in so called Redwall area. Some of the poorest live in these areas and we will all be hard hit by inflation (prices, utilities) and loss of universal credit.

Time will tell

varian Mon 04-Oct-21 14:31:24

aonk

I don’t understand why so many people want to see an end to the current government. Surely we need to accept that more voters wanted it than the alternative? I don’t feel there is currently a credible, workable alternative. When there is them it will be time for a change.

NO, you are entirely wrong. More voters in the 2019 GE voted against this appalling government.

They are only in power and able to damage our country with their incompetence and corruption because of our totally unrepresentative, undemocratic FPTP electoral system.

MaizieD Mon 04-Oct-21 14:31:59

I do too, ayse. It's one of the constituencies actually mentioned in the YouGov article. Also a n area of high deprivation. Clearly not over happy with the brash young man they voted for...

Whitewavemark2 Mon 04-Oct-21 15:04:48

I see inflation is the top issue. Well, we ain’t seen nothing yet folks.

Dickens Mon 04-Oct-21 17:15:06

Lincslass

Let’s wait and see shall we. Absolutely wanting the end of this Government will not make it happen. Wishful thinking abounds , if it happens it happens, what will happen if it happens and the red team get in, the welfare state will get even bigger than it did under Blair.

The "red team" are not so red in tooth and claw under Starmer. The man is no fool and I doubt he would go on a welfare spending spree.

The Welfare State needs a shake-up... but not just among its recipients. The whole way it is administered with all its tax-credits, universal credits and extra payments (or not) for this, that and the other - which must cost a fortune in admin.

What would help is if people were paid a wage on which they could actually sustain themselves without having to be topped up by the State. It might encourage those "scroungers" who are - according to much of the media - too lazy to get a job (does anyone know the number of benefit recipients who are IN work as opposed to those who aren't?).

Higher wages mean higher prices but, two things... some of the multinationals could absorb some of the costs themselves. And, should an employer build his business based on an the assumption of an eternal supply of cheap labour?

Those on benefits - working or not - are also consumers who are going to be hit with skyrocketing fuel hikes... they will not be putting much back into the economy.

I worked in Norway for 12 years, and when I left the UK my wage for a fairly menial hum-drum office job in 1995 was between £8-£9 per hour (when better paid jobs were offering £10-£12). The national minimum wage is now £8.91... 26 years later.

Urmstongran Mon 04-Oct-21 17:49:14

Who lends any credence to polls any more? Made up guff with selected focus groups I imagine. They always seem to get the results wrong. Remember Brexit?

grumppa Mon 04-Oct-21 18:01:47

If we accept that at the last General Election the only other party likely to be able to form a government was Labour, then aonks statement that the Conservatives polled more votes than “the alternative” is correct.

Doesn’t make the situation any less depressing, though!

MaizieD Mon 04-Oct-21 18:06:42

grumppa

If we accept that at the last General Election the only other party likely to be able to form a government was Labour, then aonks statement that the Conservatives polled more votes than “the alternative” is correct.

Doesn’t make the situation any less depressing, though!

'The alternative' could well have been a coalition, grumppa

Urmstongran Mon 04-Oct-21 18:21:52

Has a coalition ever happened before in the UK to this effect?

grumppa Mon 04-Oct-21 18:32:01

I can’t visualise a coalition with a Labour Party led by Corbyn.

varian Mon 04-Oct-21 18:49:00

I can visualise a coalition led by Kier Starmer.

* *[Edited by GNHQ to fix the formatting] **

Urmstongran Mon 04-Oct-21 19:17:00

Very strange post varian! I think we have gremlins today in the GN system. And others I believe! FB went down a friend tells me.
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