Gransnet forums

News & politics

New YouGov MRP model shows Conservatives losing up to 32 seats in the Red Wall

(47 Posts)
PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 12:48:47

Just an update here.

Not suprising.

Scones Sun 10-Oct-21 19:29:12

Have you read the comments after that article? Good grief!!

MerylStreep Sun 10-Oct-21 18:53:18

Varian

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10063731/Universal-Credit-20-week-uplift-brought-help-families-pandemic-withdrawn-TODAY.html.
I think you’ll find that every story above is to be found in the DM.
I didn’t want to over egg the point, though.

varian Sun 10-Oct-21 18:45:30

Ah, but how would you know any of this if you read The Sun, The Daily Mail or the Express?

Scones Thu 07-Oct-21 09:55:57

I don’t understand why so many people want to see an end to the current government.

Some possible reason. Other reasons are available.

137,000 Covid deaths
Food rotting on farms
Cull of pigs
Supply chain chaos
Fuel chaos
Shortage of doctors
Shortage of nurses
Shortage of hauliers
Shortage of vets
Shortage of carers
Shortage of butchers
Shortage of beer
Shortage of fruit-pickers
Shortage of food
Shortage of medicines
Shortage of blood tests
Lies
Corruption/deals for mates
Matt Hancock and his mistress getting it on in work time
33% increase in use of food banks
Exam chaos
Test and trace failure
School meals scandal
Boris Johnson's running outfits
Boris Johnson's hiding in a fridge
Dominic Cummings lying about Barnard Castle
Dominic Raab not knowing what misogyny means
Pritti Patel bullying scandal
Universal credit cut
Ten years of politically motivated austerity

growstuff Thu 07-Oct-21 01:01:01

aonk

I don’t understand why so many people want to see an end to the current government. Surely we need to accept that more voters wanted it than the alternative? I don’t feel there is currently a credible, workable alternative. When there is them it will be time for a change.

Really? I can't understand how you can't see that so many people absolutely want to see an end to the current government.

Try talking to somebody surviving on minimum wage who's facing increased gas, fuel and food prices.

growstuff Thu 07-Oct-21 00:52:34

MaizieD

grumppa

If we accept that at the last General Election the only other party likely to be able to form a government was Labour, then aonks statement that the Conservatives polled more votes than “the alternative” is correct.

Doesn’t make the situation any less depressing, though!

'The alternative' could well have been a coalition, grumppa

Even without a coalition, a minority government would have been opposed on many controversial measures.

growstuff Thu 07-Oct-21 00:48:27

ayse

As I said on another thread, remember Amersham on HS2 trading line. It went Libdems.

I live in so called Redwall area. Some of the poorest live in these areas and we will all be hard hit by inflation (prices, utilities) and loss of universal credit.

Time will tell

Indeed! The LibDems won Amersham and Chesham with a 25% swing away from the Conservatives, albeit there was a strong local issue.

There are over 200 seats which the LibDems could win with a 25% swing. That really is wishful thinking, but there are over 20 seats which could be won with a swing lower than 10%.

There are over 100 seats with a Conservative majority over Labour of 10%. The Conservative majority is much more fragile than indicated by the current HoC majority, achieved by the FPTP system.

However, boundary changes will almost certainly work in the Conservatives' favour.

Alegrias1 Tue 05-Oct-21 12:23:14

Sorry Labour could take all the seats in Scotland.....etc

Alegrias1 Tue 05-Oct-21 12:16:25

Callistemon

^An abacus, maybe.^

Rude again but that is not unexpected. At least it's consistent.

Don't need an abacus - Scotland was always a Labour stronghold. They took seats from the Conservatives too but in the main it was Labour who lost out.

Of course, if Scotland gains independence, then Labour might have a chance of winning in the RUK.
smile

SNP could take all the seats in Scotland from everybody and the Tories would still be in power.

Unfortunately all those people voting Tory have helped keep the Conservatives in power.

Don't blame us smile

Kali2 Tue 05-Oct-21 12:04:49

love0c

Richard Tice is talking sense.

Ah yes- like what? Could you share.

I've never heard him make any sense- and his GF is even much much worse.

Callistemon Tue 05-Oct-21 11:56:22

An abacus, maybe.

Rude again but that is not unexpected. At least it's consistent.

Don't need an abacus - Scotland was always a Labour stronghold. They took seats from the Conservatives too but in the main it was Labour who lost out.

Of course, if Scotland gains independence, then Labour might have a chance of winning in the RUK.
smile

love0c Tue 05-Oct-21 08:44:10

Richard Tice is talking sense.

Alegrias1 Tue 05-Oct-21 08:31:03

SNP MPs 45. Total number of Scottish constituencies, 59.

Tory majority in this Parliament, 80.

No brickbats. An abacus, maybe.

Callistemon Mon 04-Oct-21 21:54:55

Unfortunately the rise of the SNP has helped to keep the Conservatives in power.

I shall await the brickbats.

PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 21:46:49

Message deleted by Gransnet. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 21:42:24

Message deleted by Gransnet. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

Urmstongran Mon 04-Oct-21 21:40:44

Message deleted by Gransnet. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

Anniebach Mon 04-Oct-21 21:38:08

Message deleted by Gransnet. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

Urmstongran Mon 04-Oct-21 21:35:41

Message deleted by Gransnet. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

PippaZ Mon 04-Oct-21 21:33:26

Message deleted by Gransnet. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

Kali2 Mon 04-Oct-21 21:29:14

So can I Varian - our only hope!

Urmstongran Mon 04-Oct-21 19:17:00

Very strange post varian! I think we have gremlins today in the GN system. And others I believe! FB went down a friend tells me.
😱

varian Mon 04-Oct-21 18:49:00

I can visualise a coalition led by Kier Starmer.

* *[Edited by GNHQ to fix the formatting] **

grumppa Mon 04-Oct-21 18:32:01

I can’t visualise a coalition with a Labour Party led by Corbyn.

Urmstongran Mon 04-Oct-21 18:21:52

Has a coalition ever happened before in the UK to this effect?