Can the EU do well without trade with the UK?

It’s U.K. businesses that are taking the biggest hit. We import more from them so are having to pay out the higher prices. I watched a programme on the Ercol factory making high quality furniture - they import most of the wood from Europe - we don’t have the forests , so although some British wood is used, most has to be imported. No doubt the significant extra costs will be added to the price paid by the customer. It would be cheaper to buy an imported chair than a British made one.

Not so easy for them to adapt.

The Costas will suffer short term, and do well if they adjust and change to a different market, and regain EU patronage.

Better than we'll do without them.

Sorry, don't quite get what you mean here EllanVannin.

I just got this from Statista:
Leisure visitors from the United Kingdom in Europe spent the most in 2019, collectively spending approximately 28.9 billion British pounds. Spending on visiting friends and relatives in Europe amounted to nearly 5.6 billion pounds, making it the second largest traveling expenditure contribution.29 Jun 2021.

I think some tourist resorts in Europe may be able to recoup some of the lost income if British tourism reduces significantly, because other Europeans may take up the slack, but maybe not the Costas, which do have a uniquely British appeal.

They spend the most as individual countries- the EU as a whole is much much larger. Even the Costas will adapt and lose that unique British appeal, as you call it. It will take a few years.

Give it time and things will settle down into whatever the new normal is

Business will adapt as it always does

Not Brexit Kali2 ... the pandemic. So many visitors scared to travel. Or the hassle of uploading NHS Covid status and locator forms is daunting for so many. This will ease in time.

The Scandi’s love the Costa del Sol. They winter here. The lady next door to us is an example. She says they love the quality of light here as home is just so dark and cold ‘it’s nice to escape’.

The Costa del Sol is very popular with the Irish too. A hop over from Cork or Dublin. Yes, I do realise of course that they are EU citizens. I am of course just illustrating the pull of the sun, warmth and Spanish way of life for many.

Of course, Urmstongran is right, the pandemic has hit tourism hard - so why blame Brexit? Our economy is doing well, too!

I think you missed my point Hetty58, which was that some countries’ tourism will suffer in the future if the disposable income of Brits is reduced and they can no longer afford to holiday in Europe. Gas price rises will have a significant impact on some families for example.

Hetty58

Of course, Urmstongran is right, the pandemic has hit tourism hard - so why blame Brexit? Our economy is doing well, too!

Sorry but it's not. According to the latest figures from the ONS = released yesterday, GDP had grown by 0/9% and is above its pre-covid level by 0.7%.

"Gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in November 2021 and is above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level (February 2020) for the first time, by 0.7%.

Services (0.7%), production (1.0%) and construction (3.5%) output all increased between October and November 2021; this means that services and construction output are both 1.3% above their pre-coronavirus levels while production remains 2.6% below.

In the latest month, output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.8%, mainly because of a 1.4% increase in retail trade, while all other services rose by 0.6%; consumer-facing services are still 5.0% below their pre-coronavirus levels, while all other services are 2.9% above.

If there are no other data revisions, quarterly GDP for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2021 will either reach or surpass its pre-coronavirus level (Quarter 4 2019), provided our monthly December 2021 estimate does not fall by more than 0.2%"

However "The magnitude of the recession caused by the pandemic is unprecedented in modern times. GDP declined by 9.7% in 2020, the steepest drop since consistent records began in 1948 and equal to the decline in 1921 on unofficial estimates."

Details from the ONS and the House of Commons Library.

So please stop saying and believing htat the UK economy is doing well.

I think that as covid gradually disappears tourism will increase - both from UK visitors to southern Europe because we love the sun, the food etc etc and European visitors will come back to the UK. My doctor loves Scotland and Ireland in particular. I think he likes fishing.

Casdon

I think you missed my point Hetty58, which was that some countries’ tourism will suffer in the future if the disposable income of Brits is reduced and they can no longer afford to holiday in Europe. Gas price rises will have a significant impact on some families for example.

I think that some with more disposable income eg those whose families have grown up and/or those who have paid off their mortgages may have saved money during the pandemic due to the restrictions on travel, closure of hospitality etc and are waiting to spend these savings.

Families may not have so much disposable income, however.

What will happen to tourism, both ways, is indeed interesting.

Just a small factor among so many however.

The UK needs to import so much more than the EU who can all supply each other. Energy a major factor. And broken supply chains for industry another. And so many more.

My DH renovates classic cars and old Harley motorbikes. Before Brexit, he ordered most of his needed parts from the UK, all very easy with just postage to pay.
Now, he cannot afford to get them from the UK. The price of the part is still cheaper than here in EU but postage and taxes double the price. So he has found he is better off ordering from the EU.
It’s a small example but how many from the EU source what they need from the UK nowadays?

Don’t forget EU tourists to UK now need a passport and can’t travel as previously with ID cards.

Once pandemic is over places like London / Edinburgh will see the impact of that and will lose tourist revenue. For example no more school trips to London.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/european-union-id-cards-brexit-passports-b1930474.html%3famp

But this was all predictable and many pointed out the consequences, but it was Project Fear!

Do you mean trade both ways?

If it’s a case of selling to us, the U.K. is a very big market for Danish butter* and bacon*, Dutch salad items, Spanish fruit and veg, not to mention French cheese etc.

I’m not sure they’d be happy to lose that market, but could be wrong.
*I don’t buy anything Danish, because of the factory farming issue. Ditto the rather cheaper Dutch and German pork I see in Asda.
We don’t eat half so much meat as we used to, but when we do, I’m a lot more fussy about origin and welfare issues.

Kali2 what I meant was that we won't do as well in the UK without the EU as they will without us.

Of course- I clearly said both ways, and that losing the UK market, in parts or totally, would hurt the EU. But between themselves, as a group, and with the USA's support- they will be fine and able to adjust- To a large extent, they already have.

I always try to buy British, I especially try to avoid EU products in the supermarket. I'd rather buy Australian or South African wines Moroccan tomatoes. I avoid holidays in EU countries preferring Turkey a lot better value. There is a big world out there, it doesn't start and end at the EU border.

Nothing wrong with that. I always try to buy British in the UK- and have often complained to store managers about the lack of British apples, or veg, etc. And have travelled beyond Europe with delight.

But the carbon footprint is much smaller is buying from Europe, if not from UK, than rest of the world. As for holidays, for many, driving to France or other countries of central Europe, is a lot cheaper and easier.

Not the point of this thread however.

My son, son in law, and husband are ‘still trading with the EU’. They need their expertise. In fact...since Brexit started, their workloads have gone up!

Great news- but rare at the moment. May I ask (vaguely) what kind of business they are in.

Many friends who import/export just can't see a way out of this. Some have given up.

Kali2

Great news- but rare at the moment. May I ask (vaguely) what kind of business they are in.

Many friends who import/export just can't see a way out of this. Some have given up.

Are you talking to me? Engineering industry/ IT/ and Banking.

DiscoDancer
Your family seem to have ticked all the boxes ?
The uk is home to 7 out of the 10 Formula 1 teams.
The Uk is the fourth most technologically advanced country in the world.
The uk comes 2nd to NewYork in world banking.
But you probably knew that already, didn’t you ?