Can the EU do well without trade with the UK?

As soon as the referendum had taken place the EU worked towards replacing list trade with the U.K. and has achieved that within 2-3 years.

They won’t feel the effect at all.

I see the Telegraph - that bastion of Brexit is calling it a “historic failure” and something that is inflicting real damage to our economy.

We have failed to negotiate any trade deal of value. And those we have existed when we were members of the EU.

So no the EU have already mitigated against any loss of trade with the U.K., whilst we are reeling from our competence.

WWM I couldnt have put it better myself.

We are still trading with the EU, so a peculiar OP.
The EU have no need to stop trading with us, so why would they?

lemongrove

We are still trading with the EU, so a peculiar OP.
The EU have no need to stop trading with us, so why would they?

A very disingenuous post.

Unless you have been entirely closed away for the past year or two, you are well aware of the drop, catastrophic in some cases of trade to the EU by U.K. businesses.

The EU will wind down trade with the UK because of the non tariff barriers to easy trade with the UK. Until 1st January this year these didn't exist, EU goods were waved through just as they have been in all those years we were in the Single Market. They now have a great deal of paperwork to complete, which of course will erode their profits, and face long delays at the border because we don't have the customs officers or infrastructure in place to deal with the extra checks now required. I suspect that many businesses will give up as it being not worth the bother, especially as EU trade deals open up other markets with easier access.

Why anyone ever thought that instituting barriers to trade where none had existed before was a good idea is beyond me. Or thinks that it won't make any difference...

lemongrove

We are still trading with the EU, so a peculiar OP.
The EU have no need to stop trading with us, so why would they?

With great difficulty and expense for many small exporters. Of course the EU will sell stuff to the UK because UK residents want to buy EU products.

PS I forgot about the changes that came in on 1 January - sorry

The U.K. has still not installed full border checks.

And we do buy rather a lot from them!

Urmstongran

And we do buy rather a lot from them!

Wwmk2 has already pointed out that they have 'replaced' the trade they formerly had with the UK. What they get now is just icing on the cake that they could well decide is too much bother to go for.

We needed them far more than they need us.

Urmstongran

And we do buy rather a lot from them!

Agreed- but if it is too complicated, costs too much, hue queues and tons of paperwork, and if we renege on the Deal - they can just walk away. They already have, to a large extent. It will hurt them, a bit- but they can well do without. They have each other- very different climates, skills, labour force, etc, etc. The UK was a good market, but no longer. They can just adapt and walk away. As said, they more or less have done it already.

The company I work for are having massive problems importing goods which we use to manufacture other products which we now cannot export easily to the EU. We are also having problems with recruitment

As Maisie says the EU have no reason to trade with us, they have plenty of other options. If it’s going to cost them more time/trouble from 1 st Jan to export over to us either prices will rise substantially or Europe will decide its just not worth the extra trouble.
Its already obvious from the reduced lorry numbers on the main roads to/from Dover that trade is already down.

Why anyone ever thought that instituting barriers to trade where none had existed before was a good idea is beyond me. Or thinks that it won't make any difference...

I have been saying this all along, it just doesn't make any sense!

I think the EU will survive from a pure trade perspective. I think though that if UK tourism reduced because British people could no longer afford to travel, that would have a huge effect on countries which are not amongst the well off EU countries - Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece come to mind.

In the tourism example given, those poorer countries can get subsidies from the EU if necessary. It’s us that are on our own, not in my name, but that’s the reality.

Casdon

I think the EU will survive from a pure trade perspective. I think though that if UK tourism reduced because British people could no longer afford to travel, that would have a huge effect on countries which are not amongst the well off EU countries - Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece come to mind.

It is a good point, thanks. But I think many places in the EU, especially those mentionned- will be very pleased to adjust to a different kind of tourism. And that EU holiday makers,, would be very glad to reclaim some of those places with good quality restaurants and bars, with local and foods other than fish, egg or bacon and chips and lager. I know many who don't go to those places because they have become, for all sorts of reasons, not very nice places to visit.

silverlining48

As Maisie says the EU have no reason to trade with us, they have plenty of other options. If it’s going to cost them more time/trouble from 1 st Jan to export over to us either prices will rise substantially or Europe will decide its just not worth the extra trouble.
Its already obvious from the reduced lorry numbers on the main roads to/from Dover that trade is already down.

Trade both ways is already down significantly, which is borne out by ONS statistics.

EU countries have a huge market without having all the red tape of trading with the UK.

Anyone else been reading Michel Barnier's Brexit Diary.? I put it on my Christmas list and struck lucky. It really is a diary, not recollections. His central maxim, explaining La Grande Illusion of the French title is that in the 21st century and the global world no country can go it alone. I fear he will be proved right.

Well translated. Readable. Well produced. Recommended.

At the start of the 21st century there are three global powers - USA, China and the EU.

Russia lurks in the shadows and can cause disruption but is no longer a global power.

Sadly the EU has been weakened by brexit and the UK is nowhere in the global importance league, partly, at least to the malign influence of Russia.

Kali2

Casdon

I think the EU will survive from a pure trade perspective. I think though that if UK tourism reduced because British people could no longer afford to travel, that would have a huge effect on countries which are not amongst the well off EU countries - Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece come to mind.

It is a good point, thanks. But I think many places in the EU, especially those mentionned- will be very pleased to adjust to a different kind of tourism. And that EU holiday makers,, would be very glad to reclaim some of those places with good quality restaurants and bars, with local and foods other than fish, egg or bacon and chips and lager. I know many who don't go to those places because they have become, for all sorts of reasons, not very nice places to visit.

Many of the Spanish bars here on the Costa del Sol are missing the UK tourists they tell us. We spend the most money apparently! It’s very very quiet, even considering it’s January.

I am sure they are. But they will adjust and change to a different kind of tourism. Most Europeans no longer go to the Costa del Sol, I am afraid. Less can sometimes be more.

Well, sorry for the Spanish businesses on the Costa del Sol eh? Maybe they should just lower their shutters.

Don't blame me, I did NOT vote for Brexit.