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Why was Putin's intelligence so bad and and why has his army been so incompetentt

(49 Posts)
M0nica Wed 09-Mar-22 16:37:36

When Putin sent his army into Ukraine, he expected the takeover to be walk in the park, done and dusted in a few days.

Surely he must have had his Intelligence Service working overtime in the months, years before the invasion to find out what the situation on the ground was, to find out what local opinion was, to know who they could trust and who not.

I mean to say we are always hearing how smart their cyber intelligence is and there is a thread at the moment where their contributions to the Scottish Independence are being discussed, not to mention Donald Trumps's election, (non) re-election. So how come they were so lamentable unaware of the real situation in Ukraine?

Then there is what seems to be the lamentable incompetence of the Russian army, sending an arny into another country with out proper supply lines being set up, even of the invasion had been a walkover, to invest a country the size of Ukraine, you need to take a lot of basic supplies with you. You cannot be sure of adequate supplies of fuel, for instance, vehicle parts and so on.

Then there is the tale of their communications. Russian troops were ordered to destroy phone masts, only to find they needed them for their own communications and so were reduced to using mobile phones, that they had difficculty encrypting. It was when a journalist located one of these calls to Moscow that he discovered that a Russian General had been killed close to the frontline.

So what has happened to Russian Intelligence? At one of the 'very long table' meetings, that Putin had televised where everyone agreed with him, the Intelligence Chief was heard to mumble something about further talks - and was immediately silenced.

Is the perfect KGB officer, Vladimir Putin, the man whose rise to power was based on his control and mastery of intelligence, either refusing to listen to anything that disagrees with what he wants to believe, or what?

karmalady Wed 09-Mar-22 16:40:17

Thinking is that he is single track minded, autistic psycopath

He has just bombed a hospital. Evil, truly evil

eazybee Wed 09-Mar-22 17:55:54

I would say disregarding advice/intelligence because it didn't accord with his plan.

The same mistake Napoleon and Hitler made, but not before many, many people were killed.

volver Wed 09-Mar-22 18:23:15

Autistic? What?!?

sodapop Wed 09-Mar-22 19:40:01

I thought that too volver

VioletSky Wed 09-Mar-22 19:48:35

I think that must be an autocorrect gone wrong moment?

I live and work with autistic people and none of them are planning any invasions

I think Putin was obviously over confident and didn't plan on fighting a population

Iam64 Wed 09-Mar-22 19:57:17

eazybee

I would say disregarding advice/intelligence because it didn't accord with his plan.

The same mistake Napoleon and Hitler made, but not before many, many people were killed.

This and I suspect he’s psychopathic, disinterested in the views of others. He’ll believe he’s right about everything. Like Hitler, he will terrorise his command group. I’m hoping there are some generals who realise he needs taking out

VioletSky Wed 09-Mar-22 20:23:34

Those generals aren't going to let worst case scenrio happen no matter what

NATO has like 15 times Russia's military budget, at least 5 times the troops and equipment

I really don't think even Putin is crazy enough to deploy nukes

The outcome I see is Russia loses, we all help Ukraine rebuild and Russia is damaged for a long long time

MaizieD Wed 09-Mar-22 20:34:59

I have seen it claimed that there is a great deal of corruption in the supply side of Pugin's army, that much of the money allocated goes into people's pockets rather than into supplying the army.

Also that the Russian vehicles are poorly maintained and have substandard parts, such as tyres.

Additionally, they are restricted to moving on roads because off road is too muddy for the wheeled vehicles to move in.

That no-one dares tell him if anything is wrong, so he's fed lies about everything being fine with his army's equipment...

I think he's also used to dealing with far smaller countries/regions with less capability in arms and manpower to resist him. Or, he moves in co-operation with the ruling regime, as in Syria.

I suspect that his cyber intelligence is concentrated more on cyber warfare to destabilise countries, such as interference with elections and referendums, than on intelligence gathering with a view to physically overwhelm a country.

Just some of the things people have been suggesting.

MaizieD Wed 09-Mar-22 20:37:48

And, as karmalady noted, the bastards have bombed a maternity +children's hospital during a supposed ceasefire for the evacuation of civilians. angry

DaisyAnne Wed 09-Mar-22 20:43:21

It is too easy to call him names and suggest he has mental health issues. It's almost as if we say this because it makes his actions more understandable. If the reason is that he is mad, we don't have to face the fact that these are the actions of a sane man intent on imposing his will on a large part of the world.

One big difference that he doesn't seem to have taken into account is that Russia itself has changed and even more, so has Ukraine. We can add to that the willingness of the West to work together as they have done. This has come as a surprise, not only for Putin but also for some in the West.

Then there is the fact that long gone are the days when Russia and the countries close to it would see Putin's dream as a better life. He has stuck to this old view. He is fighting the old fight in pretty much the old ways. He is reckless because he does not value life - but we do, so much more than once we were able to. That is why we all want to support the Ukrainians and why they will fight for what they have achieved.

Shinamae Wed 09-Mar-22 20:44:21

VioletSky

Those generals aren't going to let worst case scenrio happen no matter what

NATO has like 15 times Russia's military budget, at least 5 times the troops and equipment

I really don't think even Putin is crazy enough to deploy nukes

The outcome I see is Russia loses, we all help Ukraine rebuild and Russia is damaged for a long long time

I certainly hope you’re right violet sky…

VioletSky Wed 09-Mar-22 20:53:38

Oh me too Shinamae

Human defy logic at times though

M0nica Thu 10-Mar-22 20:05:06

The comparisons with napoleon are apposite, and ironic.

Many of those around Napoleon advised against invading Russia when he did, and with good reason, but by that time, Napoleon the great general had been replaced by the Emperor Napoleon who believed he was the fount of wisdom and knew better than anyone else.

I suspect this has happened to Putin. I think the Russian intelligence services knew Ukraine would not be walkover, that Zelensky is a popular President and gave Putin the advice and evidence, but he is convinced that he is the best judge and ignored their information

Chewbacca Thu 10-Mar-22 20:17:33

but he is convinced that he is the best judge and ignored their information

The mark of a true despot.

Oopsadaisy1 Thu 10-Mar-22 20:30:52

I don’t think he’s in a rush, my worry is that he will surround the Country and try to starve the people out.
He knows that no one is going to rush in and help Ukraine, or will NATO then decide to enter the War?

M0nica Thu 10-Mar-22 21:45:04

Oopsadaisy1 Putin cannot surround the country. It has borders with Poland, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and Slovakia. Most of them members of the EU and NATO.

Although NATO countries are not directly involved, they are at arms length, because the Ukrainians are keeping the Russians at bay with top of the range weapons supplied by the UK, EU and USA. They are being supplied with the most sophisticated weapons and their army has been trained to use them by British and American military experts.

M0nica Thu 10-Mar-22 21:55:43

DaisyMae the reason people suggest he may not be entirely in his right mind is because his actions seem irrational and illogical. And this is the problem with people who are not in their right mind, you cannot even begin to guess what their next action will be, or the rationale behind it, because it will not follow any pattern that makes sense to a rational person

It has been on the BBC news today, captured senior NCOs and officers saying that they were told that there had been a coup in Ukraine and the government had been overthrown and replaced by Neo-Nazis and the Russians were going in to remove them and restore proper government. They were bemused - and frightened.

Anyone in their right mind would know that the army would soon have dicovered that that wasn't true and would revolt/defect/desert, whih is what is happening, so not do it.

Putin is quite likely to decide at sometime to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere, when it would seem madness to do so, because if he does there will be a response, which will be focussed and targetted and he is unlikely to survive.

Casdon Thu 10-Mar-22 22:00:11

What do you mean by your last paragraph Monica that he will use nuclear power because he knows that he has lost the war, and wants to die ‘honourably’ in a retaliatory attack?

DaisyAnne Thu 10-Mar-22 22:06:22

It has been on the BBC news today, captured senior NCOs and officers saying that they were told that there had been a coup in Ukraine and the government had been overthrown and replaced by Neo-Nazis and the Russians were going in to remove them and restore proper government. They were bemused - and frightened.

I missed that. Thank you for highlighting it M0nica.

I still don't think he's mad but would be prepared for that to be tested in a court. I would not like to see him pleading insanity to get off any war crime charges.

maddyone Thu 10-Mar-22 23:57:03

I also missed the news item with the captured officers. However I saw a lot of speculation about the possible use of chemical or biological weapons. Which is very worrying.

M0nica Fri 11-Mar-22 07:23:54

Casdon, Since the Putin is not in his right mind, he will use nuclear weapons following a logic that makes no sense to anyone other than himself.

He, no doubt, feels he can survive it and come out on top, However, I think EU and US retaliation will be carefully planned and focussed, aimed at taking out people and military targets that will cause maximum disruption to the Soviet leadership.

I would suspect that this retaliation has already been planned and is constantly being reviewed.

maddyone I agree the use of chemical and biological bombs, as in Syria, will probably be the next step. This will provide a real problem for NATO. Such bombs violate every rule of war and they will be placed in the situation as they were in Syria, where Obama chickened out and decided against retaliation. I do not think that will be possible this time.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 11-Mar-22 07:40:11

Putin is a dictator and acting like one. That is all we need to know.

That is why all dictators fail in the end, because they never or rarely hear anything that doesn’t agree with their “world truth”

Unfortunately often not before they have created havoc and misery.

MerylStreep Fri 11-Mar-22 07:51:27

Whitewavemark2
Dictators fail when they are no longer useful.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 11-Mar-22 08:17:20

MerylStreep

Whitewavemark2
Dictators fail when they are no longer useful.

Yes