Why was Putin's intelligence so bad and and why has his army been so incompetentt

Or they are taken out.

Ex-chief of staff just commenting.

Thinks that Putin got off to a stuttering start, but is now getting his act together.

Rather alarmingly he seemed to think chemical weapons will be very likely used.

Putins strategy may well be to empty Ukraine of population - which seems to be working ok at the moment. Eventually the men will follow the women.

That’ll cause someone a headache - there’s 44 million of them! The Air Marshall who was UK head of defence intelligence said that co-ordinating a land based invasion is tremendously difficult even when you have proven strategies, sensible logistics and seasoned, well trained and equipped forces that exercise for such eventualities constantly as NATO does, but apparently Russia doesn’t. Putin just took it for granted that he would be in and out in a couple of days with a puppet government in place. Job done. But it hasn’t worked out like that, and he’s painted himself into a corner and someone needs to give him a get out.

Yes, but the chief of staff was comparing to the way Putin has worked in other countries.

I do think however, that Putin appears to be getting his act together. And the strategy of emptying cities and terrorising those fleeing with bombs etc as he did in Syria seems to be working. The rest will be mopped up with chemical weapons apparently.

I wonder if the west will decide to act once chemical weapons are used?
Putin has no scruples in using them.

I just wonder how far he has to go before his general staff find what conscience they have left and decide they have no more stomach for all the carnage. That’s our best hope I think.

I don’t expect to see Putin’s general staff deserting him, unless someone kills him. The carnage in Syria didn’t nauseate or shame them. Russia is under more pressure because of Ukraine/war in Europe but using the same tactics it has previously,.

Like whitewave, I wonder what could lead to the west agreeing to a no fly zone and all that could cause.

We need a strong western leader, like JFK - Kruschev

With regard to Putin and his autocracy, I do think that any dictator needs to take the populace with him.

That is, imo his biggest threat.

The Russians have seen unprecedented economic growth since he took office, and he has survived the past 20 odd years on the back of that.

This is going to change, and Russians are going to wake up to gradually understanding that the economic changes, recession and contraction, is not going to affect them but their children and possibly their grandchildren as well.

This, alongside having to bury their children because of a protracted war, is going to change minds.

I do think however, that Putin appears to be getting his act together. And the strategy of emptying cities and terrorising those fleeing with bombs etc as he did in Syria seems to be working. The rest will be mopped up with chemical weapons apparently.

I think this bears out what you were saying, WWmk2

Russian attacks hit Ukrainian cities that were not targeted before

twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753

The BBC has a live page which is being constantly updated here:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60685883

Somebody is speaking out on mainstream Russia tv.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10600711/Ukraine-war-Guests-Russian-state-TV-invasion-like-Afghanistan-worse.html

Interestingly, apart from the media the other thing he tackled and got control of were the oligarchs.

That made him very popular.

One thing we do know about Putin is, that, he never ever fails to carry a threat out.

Which leaves us with a massive problem I think.

Ok whitewave -I’m feeling uneasy because I fear you’re right. I’m trying not to worry because it changes nothing. To be frivolous we need one of those professional assassins

I am sure WWM is right. He seems to have left himself nowhere to go even if he does back down although I don't doubt those negotiating are very clever people. A line in the New Statesman recently said:

The Kremlin’s demands of Ukraine are wildly ambitious: the nullification of the Euromaidan revolution that removed a pro-Russian government, and the end of two decades of Ukraine’s gradual progress towards Nato and the EU. It is hard to see anything short of all-out war achieving them.

I don't think his playbook has ever changed. He wants to crush the West, particulary the US, and democracy.

There are none so blind as those who will not see. Like the Emperor’s new clothes those around Putin will tell him what he wants to hear. Those who disagree are quickly despatched.

There's an interesting programme on BBC iPlayer about how Putin slowly and completely closed down every independent tv station in Russia. Doscht Television reported honestly and impartially and screened events occurring in Russia and Ukraine that Putin denied ever having happened. Staff were threatened, arrested, interrogated, had licenses withdrawn, constantly moved from premises because landlords were too afraid to be connected with them until finally, the station was raided and they were shut down forever. Putin repeatedly denied any involvement, saying that such things were nothing to do with him but that "they were spreading dissent, making mistakes and that they would have to learn a lesson". You can catch the programme on BBC iPlayer Storyville - Tango with Putin. It gives a good insight into Putin, the Russian people and what they're allowed to know.

Chewbacca

There's an interesting programme on BBC iPlayer about how Putin slowly and completely closed down every independent tv station in Russia. Doscht Television reported honestly and impartially and screened events occurring in Russia and Ukraine that Putin denied ever having happened. Staff were threatened, arrested, interrogated, had licenses withdrawn, constantly moved from premises because landlords were too afraid to be connected with them until finally, the station was raided and they were shut down forever. Putin repeatedly denied any involvement, saying that such things were nothing to do with him but that "they were spreading dissent, making mistakes and that they would have to learn a lesson". You can catch the programme on BBC iPlayer Storyville - Tango with Putin. It gives a good insight into Putin, the Russian people and what they're allowed to know.

That was one of the first things he did in after he became President in 2000.

DaisyAnne

I am sure WWM is right. He seems to have left himself nowhere to go even if he does back down although I don't doubt those negotiating are very clever people. A line in the New Statesman recently said:

The Kremlin’s demands of Ukraine are wildly ambitious: the nullification of the Euromaidan revolution that removed a pro-Russian government, and the end of two decades of Ukraine’s gradual progress towards Nato and the EU. It is hard to see anything short of all-out war achieving them.

I don't think his playbook has ever changed. He wants to crush the West, particulary the US, and democracy.

Someone said that this is a war between democracy and autocracy.

I suspect that what we are witnessing is a perfect storm of many of the points raised by others.

Putin's possible illness/overuse of steroids leading to irrational behaviour

His unwillingness to listen to anyone who doesn't say what he wants to hear

His inability to recognise that the world has moved on, warfare in the era of 24 hour social media is very different to anything in the classic war manuals

Russia's falling relevance, as Putin sees it, in the modern world. USA, Europe, China, all have their heft, their relevance, their place, there are the rising markets of South America and Africa, but Russia? Where do they stand in all of this?

I have read many articles, and the certainty is Putin is on his endgame, there is no room for a civilised end with no loss of face, it has gone far beyond that now and the only way is for Putin to be assassinated. Hopefully by one of his own.

That was one of the first things he did in after he became President in 2000.

Yes, that's true but Doscht managed to keep transmitting on air, and then via a pay wall channel, until late 2021 so the programme covers the period of when Russia first sent troops into Donetsk. Doscht actually managed to interview some of the young Russian soldiers there that Putin denied even existed.

Whitewavemark2

DaisyAnne

I am sure WWM is right. He seems to have left himself nowhere to go even if he does back down although I don't doubt those negotiating are very clever people. A line in the New Statesman recently said:

The Kremlin’s demands of Ukraine are wildly ambitious: the nullification of the Euromaidan revolution that removed a pro-Russian government, and the end of two decades of Ukraine’s gradual progress towards Nato and the EU. It is hard to see anything short of all-out war achieving them.

I don't think his playbook has ever changed. He wants to crush the West, particulary the US, and democracy.

Someone said that this is a war between democracy and autocracy.

It does seem to be Whitewave.

What stops me believing he is is mad is when you look at where Russia has interferred with any democracy it can. His attempts to encourage a move in those countries from a less democratic to a more autocratic system shows he has been carefully planning for years.

Depends on what you mean by 'mad'. it also depends how long he has been in that state.

when you look at where Russia has interferred with any democracy it can. His attempts to encourage a move in those countries from a less democratic to a more autocratic system shows he has been carefully planning for years.

That does not mean he is not mentally unbalanced. It seems to be the inevitable fate of all dictators that as they get older and their time in power lengthens their grasp of reality weakens, they begin to believe that they are infallible. They are surrounded by Yes men, because anyone who is anything else is eliminated, they become more and more isoalted and more and more fixated on some unachievable directive.

Putin's aim has always been to rebuild the old Russia with all the lands it used to hold. Certainly he has been planning this for years, but he is now an old man in a hurry, and he is making bad judgements - thinking the re-occupation of Ukraine would be a walk-over, thinking NATO countries would do nothing to help it. In fact they have been supplying it with weapons and upping the sophistication of the weapons it supplies.

This why Putin is now hinting at using chemical/bio/nuclear weapons. But while this is aimed at provoking NATO, I do wonder whether it will end in provoking the Russian people. There have been large demonstrations against the war as it is. Would going up anothe layer, be the straw that breaks the Russian camel's back and lead to even bigger demonstrations and lead to either a military coup, or Putin being struck down with an illness that means he can no longer govern and must be replaced..

He is like Trump before the election, flying a false flag about how the election would be rigged, Putin accusing US and Ukraine of making chemical weapons.

grannysyb Spot on, he is indeed!