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The French GE ... voting starts Sunday. ??

(272 Posts)
Urmstongran Fri 08-Apr-22 15:50:52

Will Macron win?
Marine le Pen is surging forward in the polls.

Fennel Sun 24-Apr-22 20:12:08

Thank Goodness ! maybe France is tired of extremes.
ps re the tax forms - I remember the dread of filling in 2 forms. one in euros and one in sterling convertd to euros.
We had rental income from UK.
Checking the conversion rate.
Needed for 2 different dates.
Our income didn't vary much and was never huge so I always thought they didn't bother checking too closely.

Joseanne Sun 24-Apr-22 20:15:43

How do they count the slips so quickly and get the result within 30 minutes of voting closing? Is it all done on the spot?

Fennel Sun 24-Apr-22 20:20:09

www.france24.com/en/live

I think it could be done electronically - could be wrong.

volver Sun 24-Apr-22 20:24:17

I heard on the BBC that they sample the results from a representative number of places then make a projection. So this isn't the final result, but they have been doing it this way for years and so they are very good at the projection. Last time they were within 0.01%. With a 16% gap its unlikely to go the other way.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 24-Apr-22 20:47:04

I am so relieved! The alternative doesn’t bear thinking about.

vegansrock Sun 24-Apr-22 20:50:42

Good result. The French family members will be pleased. Just watching Macron give a speech outside the Eiffel Tower. Trying to imagine Johnson addressing the crowds in Trafalgar Square.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 24-Apr-22 20:51:48

It does seem that the French are more politically savvy or at least learned lessons from the Trump and Johnson (Brexit) experiments.

Hopefully populism is on the decline.

mokryna Sun 24-Apr-22 21:19:28

???????
Round 2 done, but round 3, thé June legislative elections, will show how some French are feeling.
Macron won’t be able to do what he wants to do, again.

sodapop Sun 24-Apr-22 21:28:31

Yes there are a lot of people who are really anti Macron, definitely not an unqualified success is it.

mokryna Sun 24-Apr-22 21:52:03

Fennel

www.france24.com/en/live

I think it could be done electronically - could be wrong.

It’s counted by hand locally.

DiamondLily Mon 25-Apr-22 05:32:00

Macron has won with 58% of the vote, Le Pen got 41%. A bigger margin than they thought.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61209058

Mamie Mon 25-Apr-22 06:49:34

The distribution of the vote is interesting. As you might expect poorer, rural communities, less well-educated voting Le Pen, more affluent towns and cities and those with higher education qualifications for Macron. Interestingly (worryingly) support for Le Pen among younger age groups with the over-seventies voting heavily for Macron.
Possibly the latter will be closer to memories of the impact of fascism on France?

Dickens Mon 25-Apr-22 06:52:30

As The Guardian rightly says, Macron's win should not allow room for complacency.

The outgoing French president has lengthened his lead ahead of Sunday’s runoff vote. But the far right is achieving mainstream acceptance (The Guardian Editorial).

Macron has vowed to "unite France"... but don't all politicians say that after a victory? And it is easier said than done. How do you unite a very divided nation - we haven't managed it... Johnson vowed to "re-unite" the nation after he'd got Brexit "done". And we're now more divided than ever.

Economic uncertainty, austerity measures and impoverishment are a danger to any nation. We have an historical example of that danger.

If people can't afford to put petrol in their cars, food on the table or pay their bills, they are going to feel very insecure and unhappy, and cast around for someone to blame.

Will the day ever dawn when those with extreme wealth whose sole existence appears to be dedicated to making even more of it, realise that they cannot forever plunder from the working class, the ordinary people? Their greed will ensure that eventually, societies break down and are in civil strife - or even civil war. It may suit them at the moment to keep up the narrative of austerity, to maintain the status quo, but eventually even they will not be safe from angry mobs. They can only insulate themselves on their islands, in their vast properties, surrounded by private security, for so long before the world closes in on them and their very existence is threatened.

So there is definitely no room for complacency. If people have no hope for the future and see a lifetime of impoverishment, individuals like Le Pen will continue to gain traction.

As for us - a party that espouses a free-market economy with continuing cuts in public spending to achieve a small-state, was never going to do anything to alleviate the misery of its impoverished citizens. Maybe those who voted for "anyone but Corbyn" who are now complaining (like Cornwall) that they've been misled and cheated, should have read the small-print.

... for the record, I didn't and wouldn't vote for Corbyn - but neither did I vote for 'anyone but him'...

Joseanne Mon 25-Apr-22 07:56:22

The distribution of the vote is interesting. As you might expect poorer, rural communities, less well-educated voting Le Pen, more affluent towns and cities and those with higher education qualifications for Macron.
Exactly this Mamie. Interestingly a week ago I was saying on here how my rural commune in Brittany voted Le Pen in first place. On yesterday's 2nd election the tables were turned and they voted for Macron, but only by the tiniest of margins. Macron 50.7, Le Pen 49.3.
Where I have an apartment in very affluent Dinard Macron shot to 70.2 of the votes. So two huge extremes.
I thought Macron's speech was interesting. Not quite the same energetic rhetoric as in 2017 but he recognised the political strife within the hexagon and showed his concerns for all in the country and vowed to put things right. Even though pleasing every French man will be unachievable!

Joseanne Mon 25-Apr-22 08:02:01

Good post Dickens. I think the same as you do, but on another level I also think voters usually stick with what they know and have previously voted for, as is the case with Macron. So by that I mean the Conservatives have the greatest chance here, (once Boris gets removed).

MaizieD Mon 25-Apr-22 08:26:03

Will the day ever dawn when those with extreme wealth whose sole existence appears to be dedicated to making even more of it, realise that they cannot forever plunder from the working class, the ordinary people? Their greed will ensure that eventually, societies break down and are in civil strife - or even civil war. It may suit them at the moment to keep up the narrative of austerity, to maintain the status quo, but eventually even they will not be safe from angry mobs. They can only insulate themselves on their islands, in their vast properties, surrounded by private security, for so long before the world closes in on them and their very existence is threatened.

Did you contribute to or read this thread, Dickens?

www.gransnet.com/forums/news_and_politics/1308964-Let-me-tell-you-about-the-very-rich-They-are-different-from-you-and-me?msgid=29337219

I ask because I think that the 'ordinary' people reverence wealth and have little time for those who would like to see it more usefully distributed and I think it is evidenced on that thread. 'Ordinary people' don't seem to like the idea because they seem to hope, despite the huge odds against it, that they will get very wealthy one day, too, and wouldn't like to lose a penny..

I think the chances of revolt are slim because of this and because they believe that the status quo is 'natural' and unchallengeable.

I liked this wry tweet on the theme of the wealthy accumulating more and more of the world's resources.

I imagine it’s a cosmic game. The gods are watching as wealth is accrued into fewer and fewer hands unto one lucky sod has it all, the Cosmos shouts, “Bingo!” and the world ends.

(It comes from a great thread on MMT
mobile.twitter.com/maryeffrancis/status/1518090016429416448 )

Whitewavemark2 Mon 25-Apr-22 09:01:20

What is interesting and something that needs to be put into the equation when looking at how much of a victory Macrons win was.

He is the first president to be returned for a second time for over 20 years. The french traditionally like to boot out their presidents. The fact that he wasn’t is significant and should not be ignored.

I think that the cost of living crises made a big difference, as I suspect it will here.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 25-Apr-22 09:07:13

Macrons constant referral to the disaster that is Brexit and what could happen to France if Le Pen won, made an impression, as it is clear to everyone living outside of the U.K. what a pigs ear Brexit is.

DaisyAnne Mon 25-Apr-22 09:27:18

What interesting posts to wake up to. I know so little about the French system so it is all an education to me and I thank you all for the information you are posting.

Four in 10 people voted for Le Pen in this round. That is a lot of people wanting a far-right government. Also there was a good percentage in the first round for a far-left party so we still have a good number looking to extremes for an answer. I don't think that is very different in our country.

halfpint1 Mon 25-Apr-22 10:05:31

First of all I am happy that Macron gets a second term as president,stability goes a long way.
However Marie le pen and the people who voted for her should not be ignored and I hope Macron takes serious note. Living here and suffering the 'gillet jaunes' was no picnic, they were honest working class people protecting their right to work and I hope they don't have to take to the streets again.

Dickens Mon 25-Apr-22 10:47:35

MaizieD

I ask because I think that the 'ordinary' people reverence wealth and have little time for those who would like to see it more usefully distributed and I think it is evidenced on that thread. 'Ordinary people' don't seem to like the idea because they seem to hope, despite the huge odds against it, that they will get very wealthy one day, too, and wouldn't like to lose a penny..

I think the chances of revolt are slim because of this and because they believe that the status quo is 'natural' and unchallengeable.

I think you are right.

“Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” ―John Steinbeck

Does not the same apply here?

Thanks for the links - I'm off to explore them...

Fennel Mon 25-Apr-22 18:38:20

I agree with that too.
We used to live in a small commune in SW Gers. A cereal growing area.
I managed to find their results and the votes were almost equal 49% Le Penn/51% Macron. I think probably due to their annoyance with the EU over agriculture.
I know many of the farmers want out.

Joseanne Mon 25-Apr-22 21:00:52

A French friend sent me this message tonight when I asked if she was pleased with the result.
Oui, nous n'approuvons pas forcément tout ce que M. Macron fait, mais, il est le mieux qui peut être en ce moment vu les circonstances.
Yes, we don't completely agree with everything M. Macron does, but he's the best we've got given the circumstances.
Sums it up. I get the impression it's a delicate situation.

Urmstongran Mon 25-Apr-22 21:17:44

Best of a bad bunch it seems. Not much of an endorsement.

Mamie Tue 26-Apr-22 06:30:25

Good John Lichfield article exploring the challenges facing Macron, but rejoicing in the fact that self-harming populism has been rejected in France.
www.thelocal.fr/20220425/opinion-france-has-again-rejected-the-uk-and-uss-self-harming-populism/