trisher
Girl Guiding and most other youth organisations are fading away because no one wants to volunteer as leaders and organisers any more. It's partly the result of over worked parents and partly unruly kids (if people don't want to teach them and get paid for it why would anyone want to do it for nothing?). I've volunteered for two such organisations in my time and it isn't easy coping with the red tape and the parents.
So I'm not surprised any organisation is taking on dodgy people and they always have done.
It's nothing new and the demise has little to do with trans ideology. You'll find that Rainbows, Brownies and Cubs prosper to a certain extent but provision for older children falls off.
Can I just remind you of the UN Free&Equal advice about transgender issues
No 3 of the Media advice
Do not propagate negative and harmful stereotypes about trans people.
Which is actually all these threads are.
www.unfe.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/UNFE-Transgender.pdf
When you say that there have always been dodgy types in the Scouting movement, trisher, you are, of course, right - and the vast majority haven't been trans.
They have, OTOH, pretty much all been men, and whilst there is no excuse for men abusing boys, at least parents of girls knew that when they sent their daughters off to camp they would be in tents with other girls, and looked after by women. Rogue trans leaders who actually slept in tents with girls would be extremely rare (if nothing else, I'm sure that other leaders would have the sense to police it, regardless of accusations of transphobia), and there is no reason to assume that genuine transpeople are any more likely to be abusive than anyone else.
However, allowing 15 year old boys (however they identify) to share tents with 15 year old girls is fraught with danger. It's not boyphobic to know that, is it? It would be a massive failure of safeguarding to let it happen, and I'm not even suggesting that the boys would take advantage of the girls - they are perfectly capable of colluding with them. It could be argued that it is up to them, and if sex is going to happen it would happen anyway etc, but the fact remains that 15 year olds are legally unable to consent, and entitled by law to protection from themselves and others, and parents (of boys as well as girls) are entitled to know that all reasonable precautions will be taken by adults in loco parentis to ensure that it doesn't happen.
As for the reasons why leaders are leaving and others not coming forward - the ones you suggest may well be true (I would be surprised if they are not), but what evidence do you have that 'it has nothing to do with trans ideology'? My friend felt that (on top of the things you say and reasons of her own) it was the last straw. One person, maybe, but how do you know she was alone in the reason for her decision?